id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9948bcf6
|
Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.7195 |
6a7010de
|
Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-03T00:00:00 | 2022-02-27T00:00:00 | 0.7013 |
fe99178f
|
How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
30956818992
| 2024-02-17T00:00:00 | 2022-02-27T00:00:00 | 0.4982 |
1c22380b
|
Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-06T00:00:00 | 2022-03-01T00:00:00 | 0.5947 |
e3331994
|
How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
19473
| 2023-01-23T00:00:00 | 2022-03-01T00:00:00 | 0.68 |
a2a99782
|
Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-01T00:00:00 | 0.6956 |
6827cb1d
|
Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.6496 |
061a6747
|
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.6621 |
75a976dc
|
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.5806 |
197f238a
|
Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.7243 |
e88dd375
|
By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-03-17T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.4587 |
630f6925
|
Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.5301 |
12faea11
|
Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.4975 |
607a1840
|
What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?
|
quantity estimation
|
2
| 2023-06-30T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.3564 |
985c9fd1
|
Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 0.7262 |
194f3abc
|
Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.1396 |
3da6ef44
|
Will Finland join NATO before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-04T00:00:00 | 2022-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.6151 |
d490875a
|
Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.667 |
c4e83cd3
|
Will the US "Rewards for Justice" program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6775 |
0abc984d
|
Will North Korea have internet failures on 4 or more days between March 8, 2022 and August 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-07T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6059 |
99c0fb5b
|
Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO's Article 5 in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.726 |
a2af179f
|
Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.662 |
b2b135a4
|
Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6674 |
a6255a35
|
Will a new zero day vulnerability be exploited against and result in the compromise of 100 million Americans' personal information by June 30, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-16T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6611 |
e39a2d77
|
Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-31T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.4217 |
18ac02c8
|
Will average semiconductor chip lead times (amount of time between order and delivery) drop to below 15 weeks at any point before July 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-15T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.7041 |
9c11b97b
|
Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-09T00:00:00 | 2022-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.3414 |
09b5fef2
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-07T00:00:00 | 2022-03-08T00:00:00 | 0.5957 |
51adfcd5
|
What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
1175220
| 2023-03-21T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.3546 |
d6d1508c
|
How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2022-05-03T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.6454 |
d356bce4
|
Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.686 |
d989341f
|
Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-08-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.6881 |
a03bd4a7
|
How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2022-06-22T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.5451 |
7b740ae3
|
Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-05-17T00:00:00 | 2022-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.5207 |
5ac350cc
|
Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-14T00:00:00 | 0.7205 |
178aefee
|
Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-09T00:00:00 | 2022-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.5145 |
286cb1f5
|
How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
6357
| 2022-05-03T00:00:00 | 2022-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.617 |
70fc7e80
|
Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6146 |
e5807d2f
|
Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6533 |
7a038753
|
Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.7152 |
133ddf08
|
Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-23T00:00:00 | 0.7082 |
afa97fb5
|
Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.7078 |
b139ff1a
|
Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.7212 |
ab13dd24
|
Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.7269 |
0b94b0dd
|
Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-09-14T00:00:00 | 2022-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.4415 |
10390443
|
Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-31T00:00:00 | 2022-04-10T00:00:00 | 0.4637 |
9fcc1560
|
Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-05-15T00:00:00 | 2022-04-10T00:00:00 | 0.5427 |
9bf4d442
|
Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-28T00:00:00 | 2022-04-14T00:00:00 | 0.4505 |
3a844213
|
By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-25T00:00:00 | 2022-04-14T00:00:00 | 0.4934 |
fef30f63
|
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2022-04-15T00:00:00 | 0.7026 |
dec59abe
|
Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.7179 |
a92209f9
|
Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.7003 |
77e43927
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.6888 |
d5d2f43e
|
Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.639 |
30fe61bc
|
Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.7268 |
791337f3
|
What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
141
| 2022-12-01T00:00:00 | 2022-04-20T00:00:00 | 0.6295 |
f7b18f7d
|
Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-28T00:00:00 | 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.5231 |
ac1582b8
|
Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.7176 |
a03b083e
|
Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.7232 |
606937f7
|
Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-05-10T00:00:00 | 2022-05-03T00:00:00 | 0.6409 |
0e6f1189
|
When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-11-18
| 2022-11-18T00:00:00 | 2022-05-04T00:00:00 | 0.5354 |
1ca68c57
|
Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-08-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-05T00:00:00 | 0.7034 |
b65e7aa3
|
Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-06T00:00:00 | 0.6738 |
f6636dcb
|
Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-06T00:00:00 | 0.6725 |
3d6f28dc
|
Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-09T00:00:00 | 0.3226 |
ac0ae9b1
|
Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-07-21T00:00:00 | 2022-05-11T00:00:00 | 0.5282 |
5fde8386
|
Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.6401 |
81df2d7b
|
How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
79
| 2022-07-31T00:00:00 | 2022-05-19T00:00:00 | 0.6502 |
85840f99
|
What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
395
| 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-05-19T00:00:00 | 0.6235 |
256ce02f
|
Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-20T00:00:00 | 2022-05-19T00:00:00 | 0.6875 |
2d62f558
|
Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-22T00:00:00 | 2022-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.6633 |
737addfa
|
Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-08-24T00:00:00 | 2022-05-29T00:00:00 | 0.7151 |
ba7a3564
|
Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 0.6866 |
f6191c4a
|
Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-09T00:00:00 | 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 0.6402 |
489a2ea9
|
Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.6623 |
f54e3cc4
|
Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-12T00:00:00 | 2022-06-04T00:00:00 | 0.5867 |
fcf50343
|
Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-06T00:00:00 | 0.6608 |
b861c933
|
How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
9
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-07T00:00:00 | 0.4071 |
6c7bd0ca
|
When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-07T00:00:00 | 0.755 |
1f64139e
|
Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-07T00:00:00 | 0.5705 |
5d5ec144
|
Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-09T00:00:00 | 2022-06-08T00:00:00 | 0.6772 |
7b4b7bd8
|
Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-29T00:00:00 | 2022-06-09T00:00:00 | 0.7026 |
7c03ee24
|
How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?
|
quantity estimation
|
900
| 2024-04-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-14T00:00:00 | 0.6972 |
1cb0658c
|
Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-06T00:00:00 | 2022-06-18T00:00:00 | 0.6973 |
8b4e555c
|
Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-19T00:00:00 | 0.684 |
eb4032df
|
Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-19T00:00:00 | 2022-06-19T00:00:00 | 0.5457 |
65b35410
|
Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-21T00:00:00 | 0.729 |
3999766a
|
Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-06-23T00:00:00 | 0.6906 |
49df7ece
|
Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-08T00:00:00 | 2022-06-24T00:00:00 | 0.6448 |
e2ec33aa
|
Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.531 |
d3344090
|
Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-08-02T00:00:00 | 2022-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.5051 |
c7088759
|
Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-01T00:00:00 | 2022-07-27T00:00:00 | 0.6463 |
4e45b0cd
|
What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
18989
| 2022-08-31T00:00:00 | 2022-07-28T00:00:00 | 0.6651 |
7cfb959e
|
Will more than 500 combatants die as a result of an armed conflict in the Balkans by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2022-07-31T00:00:00 | 0.6805 |
049c1407
|
When will China end Covid Zero?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-12-26
| 2022-12-26T00:00:00 | 2022-08-04T00:00:00 | 0.6516 |
1a41b509
|
Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-03-15T00:00:00 | 2022-08-06T00:00:00 | 0.3305 |
73285c83
|
Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-08-07T00:00:00 | 0.7138 |
d07586ce
|
Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-08-08T00:00:00 | 0.6449 |
a03d4dad
|
Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-12-19T00:00:00 | 2022-08-11T00:00:00 | 0.4028 |
f4293a96
|
Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-09-04T00:00:00 | 0.5244 |
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