id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5e00f800
|
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6864 |
13a18a99
|
Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-14T00:00:00 | 2023-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.5072 |
e0962378
|
Will Apple announce Apple Glasses before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2023-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.7118 |
14b3f028
|
Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-05T00:00:00 | 2023-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.6111 |
0edfdb4b
|
Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-28T00:00:00 | 0.7281 |
3f8818c0
|
Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR COVID-like illness (CLI) visits in Virginia during summer 2023 exceed the same peak during the preceding winter 2022-2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-02T00:00:00 | 2023-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.7157 |
9196d6c5
|
Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-15T00:00:00 | 2023-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.4938 |
a25901b1
|
Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.5813 |
0c6910c6
|
When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-06-30T00:00:00 | 2023-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.7898 |
4c034ea1
|
Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-14T00:00:00 | 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 0.5232 |
c51ae4a8
|
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-05-30T00:00:00 | 2023-04-05T00:00:00 | 0.538 |
457df28e
|
Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-26T00:00:00 | 2023-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.0956 |
e34571ca
|
Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-04-08T00:00:00 | 0.7168 |
7e6dbbb6
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.7075 |
99116fae
|
Will Amritpal Singh be in Indian custody before April 21, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-04-21T00:00:00 | 2023-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.6518 |
5590b7e0
|
How many tech employees will be laid off in 2023 by April 25th?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-04-25T00:00:00 | 2023-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.5953 |
e34b2e49
|
Will Emmanuel Macron dissolve the French National Assembly before the end of his term?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-06-09T00:00:00 | 2023-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.3863 |
29721a76
|
Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-25T00:00:00 | 2023-04-14T00:00:00 | 0.6506 |
9ef9ccd6
|
Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-15T00:00:00 | 2023-04-16T00:00:00 | 0.7089 |
25bf815a
|
Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 2023-04-17T00:00:00 | 0.4859 |
07f6ce3f
|
Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-02T00:00:00 | 2023-04-17T00:00:00 | 0.7056 |
1cdc514c
|
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-12-08T00:00:00 | 2023-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.4699 |
968e917b
|
Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.7265 |
2625869c
|
Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-04-21T00:00:00 | 2023-04-26T00:00:00 | 0.5547 |
7ce191b2
|
Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-05T00:00:00 | 2023-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.6927 |
ecfeafa4
|
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-09-06T00:00:00 | 2023-04-28T00:00:00 | 0.5097 |
02107bf3
|
Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-06T00:00:00 | 2023-04-28T00:00:00 | 0.7215 |
f91e9eb0
|
Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-05-13T00:00:00 | 2023-04-28T00:00:00 | 0.5148 |
abe2b138
|
Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-04-30T00:00:00 | 0.5998 |
654bdbdf
|
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-06T00:00:00 | 2023-05-02T00:00:00 | 0.6013 |
71d547a3
|
Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-05-13T00:00:00 | 2023-05-03T00:00:00 | 0.6908 |
300dabbb
|
Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-05-09T00:00:00 | 2023-05-05T00:00:00 | 0.5505 |
c81cd31e
|
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-05-31T00:00:00 | 2023-05-05T00:00:00 | 0.702 |
08a22922
|
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-07T00:00:00 | 2023-05-08T00:00:00 | 0.2244 |
0e2cab73
|
Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-05-09T00:00:00 | 0.6167 |
66b19c09
|
What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?
|
quantity estimation
|
76
| 2023-09-20T00:00:00 | 2023-05-10T00:00:00 | 0.6361 |
ef24b185
|
Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-10-30T00:00:00 | 2023-05-13T00:00:00 | 0.4532 |
66036629
|
Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-15T00:00:00 | 2023-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.6547 |
48106186
|
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-15T00:00:00 | 2023-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.7214 |
dbda2886
|
Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-04T00:00:00 | 2023-05-21T00:00:00 | 0.6785 |
3459fe02
|
Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | 2023-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.627 |
06e00675
|
Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-12T00:00:00 | 2023-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.7174 |
b1e5416a
|
Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-14T00:00:00 | 2023-05-30T00:00:00 | 0.628 |
253fcb33
|
What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on June 14, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
4373
| 2023-06-14T00:00:00 | 2023-05-30T00:00:00 | 0.5536 |
8195f080
|
Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 0.6535 |
ab7908a0
|
Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-08T00:00:00 | 2023-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.5561 |
4c72f1b1
|
Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-11T00:00:00 | 2023-06-07T00:00:00 | 0.2229 |
79f23818
|
Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2023-06-10T00:00:00 | 0.5974 |
22cc97f5
|
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-10-13T00:00:00 | 2023-06-18T00:00:00 | 0.6108 |
69ea0567
|
Will Tesla's market cap be greater than $1 trillion before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-06-20T00:00:00 | 0.7278 |
5190b62e
|
Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-17T00:00:00 | 2023-06-22T00:00:00 | 0.4848 |
d22afce1
|
Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-06-24T00:00:00 | 0.6379 |
3670c659
|
Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-06-24T00:00:00 | 0.6996 |
86e2f6a3
|
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-06-25T00:00:00 | 0.7239 |
f32b0a24
|
Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-16T00:00:00 | 2023-06-25T00:00:00 | 0.5765 |
cbfe108d
|
Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-07-19T00:00:00 | 2023-06-25T00:00:00 | 0.4261 |
e5a31f0c
|
Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2023-06-27T00:00:00 | 0.7133 |
f5d412b4
|
Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-13T00:00:00 | 2023-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.7053 |
eabcef0d
|
What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
125
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-05T00:00:00 | 0.6327 |
2ff7b947
|
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-09-30T00:00:00 | 2023-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.6696 |
5a03300c
|
Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-20T00:00:00 | 2023-07-08T00:00:00 | 0.4995 |
0e9214f7
|
When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-09-27
| 2023-09-27T00:00:00 | 2023-07-13T00:00:00 | 0.4613 |
ca1fc127
|
When will the second Starship test flight occur?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-14T00:00:00 | 0.7497 |
3ed3da27
|
Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-11T00:00:00 | 2023-07-15T00:00:00 | 0.561 |
33c13aae
|
Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-08-23T00:00:00 | 2023-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.5884 |
ab2c127f
|
Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-04T00:00:00 | 2023-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.6831 |
9bd70da3
|
Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-08-24T00:00:00 | 2023-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.5756 |
77c03ce8
|
What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-08-20T00:00:00 | 2023-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.4045 |
ada359e0
|
Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-29T00:00:00 | 2023-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.7242 |
678a12da
|
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2023-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.6589 |
9b6a00aa
|
When will the next UK general election take place?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-07-04
| 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | 2023-07-24T00:00:00 | 0.527 |
9188bf35
|
Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-09-25T00:00:00 | 2023-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.7281 |
8b4ce0f1
|
Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-08-24T00:00:00 | 2023-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.5773 |
fcc58963
|
Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.7103 |
e3c091f1
|
Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-26T00:00:00 | 0.5031 |
1bf6f9be
|
Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-08-11T00:00:00 | 2023-07-26T00:00:00 | 0.655 |
4c90c3a5
|
Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.7184 |
302e77db
|
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 0.7272 |
d821a318
|
Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-12T00:00:00 | 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 0.6753 |
cb06f904
|
Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-03T00:00:00 | 2023-08-01T00:00:00 | 0.6533 |
8c89ba0a
|
Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-08-02T00:00:00 | 0.6317 |
3bdc1a35
|
Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-08-03T00:00:00 | 0.7133 |
a7db842d
|
Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2023-08-04T00:00:00 | 0.7061 |
2c8697f0
|
Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-24T00:00:00 | 2023-08-04T00:00:00 | 0.6625 |
01d21a7f
|
Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-08-15T00:00:00 | 0.4079 |
4092c3ba
|
Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-02-24T00:00:00 | 2023-08-23T00:00:00 | 0.7293 |
c8563ab8
|
Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden's Ukraine dealings before September 1st?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-09-01T00:00:00 | 2023-08-24T00:00:00 | 0.6848 |
da3ae875
|
Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-09-15T00:00:00 | 2023-09-06T00:00:00 | 0.5756 |
bd51ce53
|
Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-09-23T00:00:00 | 2023-09-06T00:00:00 | 0.6221 |
7eed6cb0
|
Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-07T00:00:00 | 0.7162 |
dd39711e
|
How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2023-10-04T00:00:00 | 2023-09-07T00:00:00 | 0.8367 |
75b23574
|
Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-07-16T00:00:00 | 2023-09-11T00:00:00 | 0.6809 |
cb94a610
|
Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-19T00:00:00 | 0.7223 |
75d9ac77
|
Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-10-02T00:00:00 | 2023-09-20T00:00:00 | 0.708 |
9a3c5656
|
Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-23T00:00:00 | 2023-09-22T00:00:00 | 0.5872 |
fa0e59bd
|
Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-10-01T00:00:00 | 2023-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.711 |
ee6cae1b
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-09-28T00:00:00 | 0.7258 |
21d5af13
|
Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-09-29T00:00:00 | 0.7226 |
d8058bb8
|
What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?
|
quantity estimation
|
7
| 2023-12-01T00:00:00 | 2023-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.3583 |
12e4f9b8
|
Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-12-19T00:00:00 | 2023-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.345 |
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