id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2ba94b78
|
Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-16T00:00:00 | 2024-04-11T00:00:00 | 0.7175 |
83fdd58a
|
Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-05-03T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.5014 |
ea7eb5cb
|
Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-14T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.704 |
a38bcb73
|
Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.6358 |
e1d4803c
|
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States as of May 20, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
139
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.6775 |
d88ee09d
|
Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6594 |
44b62248
|
Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6755 |
ef8591c8
|
Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.6887 |
e13e8573
|
Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-15T00:00:00 | 0.5744 |
7a6be6e2
|
What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
5018
| 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 2024-04-15T00:00:00 | 0.6772 |
c47fab62
|
What will be the 10-year Treasury yield at close on May 20, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.6413 |
a46b6ff9
|
Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.707 |
229f4ceb
|
What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer for Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga following its premiere at Cannes?
|
quantity estimation
|
86
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.5891 |
cf3f59a8
|
Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.7251 |
497c4c14
|
What will be the settle price of July futures of Brent crude oil (in US dollars per barrel) for May 7, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
83
| 2024-05-08T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.548 |
dc48bcd1
|
Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.5619 |
0ad1d467
|
What will be the settle price of May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts for May 15, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
243
| 2024-05-16T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.641 |
0394b738
|
Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-04-24T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.5142 |
b8a7f183
|
By what percent will Rubrik's stock price change from its IPO price on its first day of trading?
|
quantity estimation
|
16
| 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.611 |
deda50a2
|
What will be the median change in monthly household spending in the US compared to one year ago for April 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
5
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 0.6267 |
7a09b725
|
Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-05-09T00:00:00 | 2024-04-23T00:00:00 | 0.5307 |
4767cd10
|
When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-06-06
| 2024-06-06T00:00:00 | 2024-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.6041 |
352543cf
|
Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-04-30T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.6608 |
c3fe948c
|
How many flights within, into, or out of the United States will be canceled on May 18th, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
106
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.4495 |
78f2543e
|
As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-21T00:00:00 | 2024-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.7106 |
d11cfc42
|
Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-15T00:00:00 | 2024-04-26T00:00:00 | 0.6897 |
a65a9d05
|
What will the global temperature anomaly be (in degrees Celsius) for April 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2024-05-14T00:00:00 | 2024-04-26T00:00:00 | 0.6029 |
5134153a
|
Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.7244 |
eb4acf14
|
Will there be a named Atlantic storm or hurricane before May 20, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2024-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.6862 |
2a9db8f0
|
Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 2024-05-01T00:00:00 | 0.626 |
f84ac10d
|
Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-06-15T00:00:00 | 2024-05-07T00:00:00 | 0.6322 |
9dcc0974
|
Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 2024-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.698 |
e413dcd1
|
Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-03T00:00:00 | 2024-05-22T00:00:00 | 0.7046 |
ceb433c1
|
What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
20
| 2024-07-02T00:00:00 | 2024-05-22T00:00:00 | 0.6693 |
ab8b1203
|
Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-07T00:00:00 | 2024-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.6621 |
9f107eb0
|
Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-07T00:00:00 | 2024-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.7296 |
4cef4aea
|
Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-07-04T00:00:00 | 2024-05-25T00:00:00 | 0.6712 |
d87adb70
|
On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-28T00:00:00 | 2024-05-31T00:00:00 | 0.4309 |
79fdf273
|
Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-12-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-12T00:00:00 | 0.2582 |
394dd221
|
Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 2024-06-17T00:00:00 | 0.553 |
1705db2d
|
What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
32
| 2024-09-16T00:00:00 | 2024-06-27T00:00:00 | 0.6544 |
8dd9a99f
|
Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.728 |
15a98514
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-06-29T00:00:00 | 0.695 |
44e6913c
|
Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-07-15T00:00:00 | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.6839 |
b11960ca
|
Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-08-06T00:00:00 | 2024-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.7055 |
36c35a23
|
Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 2024-07-01T00:00:00 | 0.7167 |
3010cad0
|
What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
36
| 2024-09-18T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.6473 |
f17c4add
|
Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-29T00:00:00 | 2024-07-06T00:00:00 | 0.3694 |
d10e1af3
|
Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-07-21T00:00:00 | 2024-07-11T00:00:00 | 0.4992 |
4e90929d
|
Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-23T00:00:00 | 0.7 |
bb5bd87d
|
Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-25T00:00:00 | 0.7132 |
813b19e4
|
Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-09-01T00:00:00 | 2024-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.7292 |
226bcd1f
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-09-04T00:00:00 | 2024-07-31T00:00:00 | 0.6761 |
2a7bad42
|
Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-09-20T00:00:00 | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.726 |
f8710fa2
|
What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
118
| 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 2024-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.4472 |
7bc08f6c
|
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-10-02T00:00:00 | 2024-08-06T00:00:00 | 0.6426 |
93089329
|
Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-12T00:00:00 | 0.7249 |
f71ab09e
|
Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-16T00:00:00 | 0.6785 |
ef3bdb5e
|
Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-09-11T00:00:00 | 2024-08-26T00:00:00 | 0.7188 |
a1f540b3
|
Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.7172 |
94cab0bd
|
Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-09-11T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.4437 |
a9f2f571
|
Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-08-27T00:00:00 | 0.7217 |
f4a978b9
|
Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 2024-08-29T00:00:00 | 0.4909 |
119857b8
|
Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-03T00:00:00 | 0.7122 |
f81be422
|
Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-07T00:00:00 | 0.7112 |
4abf5a5d
|
What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?
|
quantity estimation
|
29
| 2024-10-03T00:00:00 | 2024-09-08T00:00:00 | 0.6398 |
afd8cfda
|
Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-07T00:00:00 | 2024-09-09T00:00:00 | 0.5882 |
84bbef04
|
Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.7157 |
e6239d91
|
Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-16T00:00:00 | 0.6561 |
d7104107
|
What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
3407
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.6358 |
281d4716
|
Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-09-28T00:00:00 | 0.5597 |
045c109e
|
Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-12-31T00:00:00 | 2024-09-29T00:00:00 | 0.7202 |
44490c42
|
Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.7275 |
6720b158
|
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.229 |
bf40906d
|
Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-12-26T00:00:00 | 2024-10-08T00:00:00 | 0.705 |
64cdfa0b
|
Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-12-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.6915 |
da17e48b
|
Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.7058 |
d1e1bb04
|
How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?
|
quantity estimation
|
10
| 2025-01-09T00:00:00 | 2024-10-12T00:00:00 | 0.5758 |
dec2e6d2
|
Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.7061 |
30b2b9de
|
Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2024-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.6724 |
7d533a55
|
How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2024-12-20T00:00:00 | 2024-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.664 |
43e68f80
|
How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
282
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.5431 |
55086f45
|
By how many billion USD will Elon Musk's net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
dc4b0495
|
Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-04T00:00:00 | 2024-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.7013 |
474f4e0d
|
Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-12-13T00:00:00 | 2024-11-12T00:00:00 | 0.2535 |
0bbfead6
|
Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-03T00:00:00 | 2024-11-19T00:00:00 | 0.0548 |
10e11512
|
What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
-1
| 2024-12-27T00:00:00 | 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 0.5917 |
742ef9b0
|
How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?
|
quantity estimation
|
219
| 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 0.6018 |
c88683d9
|
Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.5459 |
7628c01f
|
Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-12-20T00:00:00 | 2024-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.5332 |
37ebbdc9
|
Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-12-03T00:00:00 | 0.5825 |
85b06fed
|
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2024-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6911 |
4bd363e2
|
Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-24T00:00:00 | 2024-12-19T00:00:00 | 0.6654 |
0cce0ece
|
How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 0.5889 |
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