id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
e3f2a16f
|
Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-07-02T00:00:00 | 2021-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.3728 |
53a45a09
|
Will at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccines be granted emergency use authorization by the U.S. FDA for children under 12 years old before 1 September 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-09-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.5721 |
d9e02c96
|
Will variants of concerns thought to partially escape immunity make up more than 50% of samples sequenced in Virginia on 29 August - 11 September 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-10-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.4079 |
2d3f40a3
|
Will all local health districts in Virginia either be in declining or plateau trajectories OR report fewer than 5 cases per 100k residents per week for 3 consecutive weeks prior to 1 September 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-08-30T00:00:00 | 2021-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.5214 |
63946c4f
|
Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-04-29T00:00:00 | 0.6967 |
1d61348c
|
Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-05-14T00:00:00 | 2021-05-04T00:00:00 | 0.7207 |
2657c2fa
|
Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-05-04T00:00:00 | 0.5499 |
3219f0df
|
Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-04-20T00:00:00 | 2021-05-05T00:00:00 | 0.6954 |
7d4304cb
|
If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-03T00:00:00 | 2021-05-05T00:00:00 | 0.5252 |
b97c754c
|
Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-07-02T00:00:00 | 2021-05-09T00:00:00 | 0.3854 |
7b6c844d
|
Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-30T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.7101 |
4e028408
|
Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-29T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.7229 |
e2a9d859
|
Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.6794 |
cbef9b56
|
Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.5961 |
d0353eeb
|
Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.4683 |
691da56d
|
Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-30T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.6725 |
40581909
|
Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-05-18T00:00:00 | 0.6911 |
3d893685
|
Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 2021-05-29T00:00:00 | 0.6669 |
dfb90c8e
|
Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-05-22T00:00:00 | 2021-05-31T00:00:00 | 0.513 |
657a71da
|
When will the James Webb telescope be launched?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-12-25
| 2021-12-25T00:00:00 | 2021-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.7919 |
bfe811db
|
Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-05T00:00:00 | 2021-06-05T00:00:00 | 0.7235 |
f61d2b64
|
What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2022-10-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-14T00:00:00 | 0.6171 |
a7627492
|
Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-15T00:00:00 | 0.7189 |
b1ba4d81
|
How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
12512
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2021-06-15T00:00:00 | 0.817 |
200a5c02
|
What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.6868 |
35809150
|
Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-07T00:00:00 | 2021-06-17T00:00:00 | 0.6774 |
28fe57c4
|
Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-21T00:00:00 | 0.7097 |
7dd13b83
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-21T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
f4683856
|
Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-22T00:00:00 | 0.7272 |
fe2987dc
|
Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-06-22T00:00:00 | 0.7253 |
a6576d25
|
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
2
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2021-06-22T00:00:00 | 0.7466 |
fe29fa81
|
Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-14T00:00:00 | 2021-06-23T00:00:00 | 0.6191 |
207fa5ca
|
Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-08-22T00:00:00 | 2021-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.5932 |
d283baca
|
Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-12-25T00:00:00 | 2021-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.5485 |
d1b6f917
|
Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-09-02T00:00:00 | 2021-07-19T00:00:00 | 0.5122 |
2b7d8dc7
|
When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-08-02T00:00:00 | 2021-07-26T00:00:00 | 0.7569 |
5d81aa29
|
Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-08-10T00:00:00 | 2021-08-03T00:00:00 | 0.529 |
d9423129
|
Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-08-11T00:00:00 | 2021-08-08T00:00:00 | 0.6309 |
7bf6d02b
|
Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-08-11T00:00:00 | 2021-08-09T00:00:00 | 0.5065 |
5069da9a
|
Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-09-19T00:00:00 | 2021-08-14T00:00:00 | 0.6846 |
019e7729
|
Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-09-05T00:00:00 | 2021-08-18T00:00:00 | 0.5058 |
38c7e8fd
|
Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-08-19T00:00:00 | 0.6464 |
19f42db6
|
What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
quantity estimation
|
13
| 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 2021-08-22T00:00:00 | 0.7098 |
ce3498ac
|
When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-04-18
| 2022-04-18T00:00:00 | 2021-08-22T00:00:00 | 0.7805 |
67005129
|
Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-01T00:00:00 | 2021-08-23T00:00:00 | 0.3584 |
b131de7b
|
Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2021-08-24T00:00:00 | 0.713 |
2e377b48
|
In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-12-24T00:00:00 | 2021-08-24T00:00:00 | 0.6897 |
8173a538
|
What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?
|
quantity estimation
|
2320250281
| 2023-12-16T00:00:00 | 2021-08-25T00:00:00 | 0.6294 |
5a8387cf
|
By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-11-24T00:00:00 | 2021-09-10T00:00:00 | 0.6575 |
0ebda506
|
Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-11-21T00:00:00 | 2021-09-13T00:00:00 | 0.4992 |
2f914d8c
|
When will Ethereum abandon proof of work?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-09-15
| 2022-09-15T00:00:00 | 2021-09-13T00:00:00 | 0.5378 |
d50f9bb4
|
Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-11T00:00:00 | 2021-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.6363 |
5a98d064
|
Will a US Democratic President sign into law a $500 billion spending cut before 2029?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-21T00:00:00 | 2021-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.4074 |
b5cb82b0
|
Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-09-16T00:00:00 | 0.7131 |
be114586
|
Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-11-01T00:00:00 | 2021-09-20T00:00:00 | 0.7234 |
504377af
|
Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2021-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.5211 |
616ff20a
|
Will Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel again by 2030?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-29T00:00:00 | 2021-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.5012 |
50b26763
|
Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.4048 |
ee647721
|
Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-08-03T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.5805 |
6888ce9a
|
Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-02-16T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.587 |
c7f361a0
|
How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
66
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.6751 |
9a557256
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.66 |
7624bde1
|
Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.5633 |
24e1e9df
|
Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.5002 |
5421bbd1
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.6786 |
73f0871e
|
Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2021-10-04T00:00:00 | 0.6432 |
34e0629a
|
Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-05T00:00:00 | 0.7179 |
972b0fa6
|
Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-05T00:00:00 | 0.7185 |
2cc811eb
|
How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
100
| 2024-02-16T00:00:00 | 2021-10-08T00:00:00 | 0.8077 |
a19cfe56
|
How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
189000
| 2023-11-02T00:00:00 | 2021-10-13T00:00:00 | 0.6739 |
141a778c
|
What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?
|
quantity estimation
|
78
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-20T00:00:00 | 0.7174 |
05fe5432
|
Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-03-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-21T00:00:00 | 0.644 |
5fb06a1a
|
Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.7062 |
fd808d8e
|
Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-08-11T00:00:00 | 2021-10-23T00:00:00 | 0.5538 |
8b1a99b5
|
Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-10-28T00:00:00 | 0.6664 |
1e0a5c03
|
Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-06T00:00:00 | 2021-10-29T00:00:00 | 0.722 |
baeb058f
|
Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-12-22T00:00:00 | 2021-11-03T00:00:00 | 0.5744 |
5ce7f7fb
|
[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-06T00:00:00 | 0.3377 |
eb34b693
|
By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-27T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.3868 |
52853a67
|
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.6744 |
e14c6e0c
|
How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
above_upper_bound
| 2022-10-05T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.5853 |
1164c8e1
|
Will any state leave NATO before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.7246 |
d4dc8f4d
|
By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.6855 |
8f1f5355
|
Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-04T00:00:00 | 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.5482 |
8ce88019
|
Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-11-22T00:00:00 | 2021-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.6956 |
7254bf84
|
By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.6844 |
2ff3b8c4
|
Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-11T00:00:00 | 0.673 |
ea821374
|
By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-15T00:00:00 | 0.6013 |
9e3c023b
|
What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
9
| 2023-01-12T00:00:00 | 2021-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.7426 |
1f5ee429
|
Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-12-08T00:00:00 | 2021-11-19T00:00:00 | 0.3985 |
037d432c
|
Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-08-31T00:00:00 | 2021-11-22T00:00:00 | 0.5953 |
3133de8e
|
Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-12-13T00:00:00 | 2021-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.1967 |
986e771d
|
Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2021-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.7223 |
fa78e12c
|
Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-27T00:00:00 | 0.6902 |
b0ea05a9
|
When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-12-19
| 2022-01-14T00:00:00 | 2021-11-27T00:00:00 | 0.6478 |
af1ecaf7
|
[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?
|
quantity estimation
|
37
| 2022-03-20T00:00:00 | 2021-11-27T00:00:00 | 0.6134 |
b604411a
|
Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-08T00:00:00 | 2021-11-27T00:00:00 | 0.7049 |
a5c10869
|
Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-03-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-27T00:00:00 | 0.6125 |
1bc0decb
|
What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
76
| 2022-03-03T00:00:00 | 2021-11-28T00:00:00 | 0.6651 |
7ffecf77
|
Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-07-08T00:00:00 | 2021-11-29T00:00:00 | 0.6602 |
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