id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
616e3f51
|
[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-16T00:00:00 | 2021-11-29T00:00:00 | 0.6614 |
526a9e02
|
Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-23T00:00:00 | 2021-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.6148 |
7b95eb0d
|
Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.726 |
da4f8a2c
|
Will space debris kill a human on Earth by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-02T00:00:00 | 0.7262 |
209dc012
|
Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-08T00:00:00 | 2021-12-06T00:00:00 | 0.5893 |
b17ddc64
|
Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-09-05T00:00:00 | 2021-12-08T00:00:00 | 0.4648 |
7e6c74a0
|
What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.6349 |
13fe291f
|
Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-24T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.7145 |
6b6e0e61
|
How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
720
| 2023-02-15T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.689 |
a5795e9a
|
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
6672352
| 2023-01-05T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.7192 |
121012ec
|
How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
13093698779
| 2023-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6507 |
bf7d45f7
|
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
1088000
| 2023-01-07T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6915 |
274bf967
|
Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-07T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.4875 |
39ec0747
|
Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.712 |
96c5125f
|
Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.7059 |
7c631033
|
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.4846 |
ca720b7d
|
What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
2
| 2023-03-31T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6941 |
a7f99673
|
What will the price of oil be for December 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
77
| 2023-01-10T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6024 |
314cb182
|
How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
918464
| 2023-01-17T00:00:00 | 2021-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.431 |
8af5da3e
|
How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
105086
| 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6809 |
14f9947b
|
Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-06-24T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.558 |
403f3158
|
Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-05-26T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6521 |
b322915a
|
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-02-20T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.4841 |
1e85827f
|
Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-07T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6658 |
673d7b67
|
Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-13T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6062 |
4c638c81
|
Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.6573 |
226a7f47
|
Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.3441 |
3fa94837
|
Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-27T00:00:00 | 2021-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5561 |
d9b40374
|
Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-02-20T00:00:00 | 2021-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.6352 |
16177a48
|
What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
9
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-28T00:00:00 | 0.6274 |
c438fee6
|
How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?
|
quantity estimation
|
51
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-30T00:00:00 | 0.6712 |
1c484f59
|
Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.7162 |
feb44e22
|
Will the DART asteroid mission successfully impact in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-09-26T00:00:00 | 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 0.6822 |
65b087af
|
Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-09-22T00:00:00 | 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.5831 |
28a2cde7
|
Will Tether collapse before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 0.6894 |
0a306705
|
Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.5187 |
f0722b59
|
Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.5905 |
e8f2c91d
|
Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-07T00:00:00 | 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.5479 |
7ce2deaa
|
Will the UK authorise fourth doses of Covid vaccines for healthy adults in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.3072 |
67ede918
|
Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-05T00:00:00 | 0.6317 |
eb0b64e8
|
Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-05T00:00:00 | 0.6887 |
7fba0782
|
Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-09T00:00:00 | 2022-01-10T00:00:00 | 0.5775 |
96939230
|
Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-26T00:00:00 | 2022-01-11T00:00:00 | 0.6269 |
9f79d9a7
|
Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-08-08T00:00:00 | 2022-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.71 |
45472612
|
Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-07-21T00:00:00 | 2022-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.5656 |
9b88e4bb
|
[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-21T00:00:00 | 2022-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.4309 |
2c1e2288
|
Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-02-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6813 |
255cbfec
|
How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
178
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.6583 |
36157482
|
Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-12T00:00:00 | 2022-01-18T00:00:00 | 0.6527 |
d730907c
|
Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.7035 |
5e576735
|
Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-20T00:00:00 | 0.697 |
07e53c35
|
When will the S&P 500 next surpass its record high closing price set on Jan 3 2022?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-01-19
| 2024-01-19T00:00:00 | 2022-01-23T00:00:00 | 0.5331 |
c6b4a374
|
When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-01-28
| 2024-01-29T00:00:00 | 2022-01-23T00:00:00 | 0.6078 |
2878a028
|
What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
4892
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-23T00:00:00 | 0.8711 |
82a19f67
|
Will the Supreme Court find Harvard's admissions unlawful in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-29T00:00:00 | 2022-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.5256 |
2c59e821
|
Will the Supreme Court end racial preferences in university admissions in SFFA vs. Harvard before 2030?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-29T00:00:00 | 2022-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.526 |
df7084ca
|
Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-07T00:00:00 | 2022-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.5609 |
e7793962
|
Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.7144 |
35cc4d2f
|
Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-03-14T00:00:00 | 2022-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.5501 |
2a45b5e7
|
Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-28T00:00:00 | 2022-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6932 |
8ee71afc
|
Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-02T00:00:00 | 2022-01-30T00:00:00 | 0.6723 |
ddceb5b3
|
Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-10T00:00:00 | 2022-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.6846 |
224e70fb
|
If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-02-24
| 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 2022-02-04T00:00:00 | 0.5329 |
13867c71
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-06T00:00:00 | 0.6719 |
f2551afc
|
Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-08T00:00:00 | 2022-02-06T00:00:00 | 0.5901 |
9fb00a2c
|
If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-03-12T00:00:00 | 2022-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.4999 |
624f342e
|
Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 2022-02-09T00:00:00 | 0.7268 |
5e66ee13
|
Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-10T00:00:00 | 0.3077 |
38b122d1
|
If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-03-24T00:00:00 | 2022-02-18T00:00:00 | 0.5208 |
e22bfee1
|
What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?
|
quantity estimation
|
83
| 2022-05-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-22T00:00:00 | 0.5568 |
95da8ef8
|
Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-22T00:00:00 | 0.7092 |
f8df28eb
|
Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-04-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.5106 |
f9f7089f
|
What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2023-04-24T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6896 |
739f4511
|
What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2023-04-24T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.519 |
40e2644f
|
Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-03-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.7239 |
13a1200f
|
How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
100000
| 2022-09-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.7075 |
f6773f81
|
Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-10T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6717 |
37efd716
|
If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-03-02T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6351 |
b7e4ebed
|
Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.5281 |
f70e03f4
|
Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-05-02T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.5873 |
30b62dd0
|
Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6627 |
a104144a
|
How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
5914000
| 2023-05-10T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6932 |
eb8c52f4
|
Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-07-05T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6692 |
3092fbc9
|
Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 0.6889 |
8e355516
|
Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6997 |
5696532f
|
What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
below_lower_bound
| 2023-12-29T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.5852 |
1e82d250
|
What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?
|
quantity estimation
|
3
| 2024-01-18T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6491 |
6bbb023c
|
Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.5529 |
f1c9c302
|
Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6781 |
47581d5d
|
Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-10-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.479 |
beb1e650
|
Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6747 |
ae3b062b
|
Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.7049 |
aa72547d
|
Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6643 |
2737d066
|
Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2022-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.6987 |
794fb9d4
|
Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-04-27T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.5343 |
c5f2c2eb
|
Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.7238 |
4249d617
|
Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.717 |
af6e0b56
|
Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-02-02T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.6899 |
7c86bb8c
|
Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.5901 |
6f7a645b
|
Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.7266 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.