id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
133e0ae3
|
Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2021-01-06T00:00:00 | 0.712 |
08bf8e8d
|
What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
39
| 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 2021-01-06T00:00:00 | 0.7547 |
a5438912
|
[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2021-01-07T00:00:00 | 0.6929 |
c55340f3
|
Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-08T00:00:00 | 0.708 |
e433f6ea
|
When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-15
| 2021-04-19T00:00:00 | 2021-01-09T00:00:00 | 0.7402 |
46f6bf9b
|
Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-21T00:00:00 | 2021-01-09T00:00:00 | 0.6911 |
eb40ffeb
|
Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-23T00:00:00 | 2021-01-10T00:00:00 | 0.7129 |
68efc696
|
Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-02-21T00:00:00 | 2021-01-10T00:00:00 | 0.6447 |
f83719ba
|
How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?
|
quantity estimation
|
15576107
| 2021-02-16T00:00:00 | 2021-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6376 |
d478e3f3
|
When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-09
| 2021-04-10T00:00:00 | 2021-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.7084 |
a72dbde9
|
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-03-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6607 |
18f72ff8
|
Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.4476 |
a0d2da44
|
How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2022-04-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.4395 |
12143d03
|
Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.7081 |
34101b98
|
Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-23T00:00:00 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.4444 |
41c2b331
|
Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-10-08T00:00:00 | 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.5212 |
35947b2d
|
Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-25T00:00:00 | 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6641 |
9f95c479
|
Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6265 |
014b3fb6
|
How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2025-01-31T00:00:00 | 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6509 |
b028a322
|
Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6097 |
553cd80a
|
Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 0.6391 |
e505962f
|
Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-10-18T00:00:00 | 2021-01-15T00:00:00 | 0.3756 |
b80a1799
|
[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-03-10T00:00:00 | 2021-01-15T00:00:00 | 0.7179 |
7c593a5c
|
Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-05T00:00:00 | 2021-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.4438 |
6261d284
|
When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2023-01-06T00:00:00 | 2021-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.5474 |
a1f4f10b
|
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-16T00:00:00 | 2021-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.5549 |
904ed57c
|
Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-05T00:00:00 | 2021-01-17T00:00:00 | 0.4841 |
83179908
|
When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-02-02
| 2021-02-02T00:00:00 | 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.5156 |
4e8754f7
|
What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?
|
quantity estimation
|
6
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.6492 |
2aa6a77f
|
Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-10-29T00:00:00 | 2021-01-19T00:00:00 | 0.5817 |
18da409b
|
Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-03T00:00:00 | 2021-01-21T00:00:00 | 0.6065 |
9d024169
|
Will Bill Gates fund a brain-computer interface company before 2031?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-12-15T00:00:00 | 2021-01-22T00:00:00 | 0.4313 |
91f2fb0e
|
Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-08-26T00:00:00 | 2021-01-22T00:00:00 | 0.6838 |
8c514a56
|
In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-03-24T00:00:00 | 2021-01-23T00:00:00 | 0.6717 |
a7c97e65
|
When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-01-12
| 2024-01-12T00:00:00 | 2021-01-23T00:00:00 | 0.7475 |
a75b3b02
|
Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-28T00:00:00 | 2021-01-24T00:00:00 | 0.4841 |
a3cc656d
|
Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-30T00:00:00 | 2021-01-24T00:00:00 | 0.5191 |
496f2b5b
|
[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-02-08T00:00:00 | 2021-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.4311 |
6db4a13d
|
When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-02-21
| 2022-02-26T00:00:00 | 2021-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6019 |
dbb513b7
|
Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6987 |
2dcb500e
|
Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.4595 |
0eca53b9
|
Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-11-03T00:00:00 | 2021-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6913 |
5c83b56c
|
Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-01-28T00:00:00 | 0.6873 |
108529aa
|
Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2021-01-28T00:00:00 | 0.4928 |
dfd42382
|
Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-29T00:00:00 | 2021-01-28T00:00:00 | 0.6998 |
6b21a5c7
|
Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-03T00:00:00 | 2021-01-29T00:00:00 | 0.7239 |
bcc15a43
|
By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-25T00:00:00 | 2021-01-29T00:00:00 | 0.5709 |
615d1cb5
|
Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-29T00:00:00 | 2021-01-30T00:00:00 | 0.5428 |
be8d3e6a
|
Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-01-31T00:00:00 | 0.6919 |
bb17910b
|
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?
|
quantity estimation
|
1817502
| 2021-03-05T00:00:00 | 2021-01-31T00:00:00 | 0.6547 |
a05b7206
|
On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-05-10
| 2021-05-19T00:00:00 | 2021-02-01T00:00:00 | 0.525 |
2dcba81c
|
Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-09T00:00:00 | 2021-02-01T00:00:00 | 0.6823 |
3e9bec90
|
Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-05-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-02T00:00:00 | 0.6608 |
5ae84afc
|
What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?
|
quantity estimation
|
49772180
| 2021-03-03T00:00:00 | 2021-02-02T00:00:00 | 0.5842 |
4d25ed29
|
When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.6497 |
776b9e32
|
[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-03-03T00:00:00 | 2021-02-07T00:00:00 | 0.5547 |
5ffe2f2c
|
When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-05-25
| 2022-05-26T00:00:00 | 2021-02-08T00:00:00 | 0.389 |
f493a703
|
Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-02-12T00:00:00 | 0.5642 |
949350e5
|
Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-30T00:00:00 | 2021-02-13T00:00:00 | 0.6736 |
f682eeaa
|
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?
|
quantity estimation
|
2903730
| 2021-04-03T00:00:00 | 2021-02-13T00:00:00 | 0.6945 |
22990f97
|
Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-04-02T00:00:00 | 2021-02-15T00:00:00 | 0.4602 |
3f4c9509
|
Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-15T00:00:00 | 0.5948 |
3dfbf299
|
What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?
|
quantity estimation
|
2550000
| 2021-05-02T00:00:00 | 2021-02-18T00:00:00 | 0.632 |
a1fa32a0
|
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.3837 |
731e2bab
|
Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-02-24T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.6869 |
ac9c7e28
|
What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2022-01-07T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.495 |
36fd2689
|
Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-03T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.7156 |
e675a3d2
|
Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.5264 |
9b1be292
|
Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.6841 |
d1b06489
|
Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.5118 |
56870720
|
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.5925 |
2fbded5d
|
Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-03-25T00:00:00 | 2021-02-19T00:00:00 | 0.5578 |
5be21738
|
Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-11-17T00:00:00 | 2021-02-22T00:00:00 | 0.4922 |
03571539
|
Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-10-26T00:00:00 | 2021-02-22T00:00:00 | 0.4553 |
061a8ecf
|
Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
69182
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2021-02-25T00:00:00 | 0.7221 |
c4b601e5
|
What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?
|
quantity estimation
|
144894586
| 2021-04-30T00:00:00 | 2021-02-26T00:00:00 | 0.6882 |
d5fda948
|
Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-07-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.6037 |
7f0df435
|
Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-02-28T00:00:00 | 0.6266 |
4bea6810
|
Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-05-10T00:00:00 | 2021-03-01T00:00:00 | 0.7157 |
8c497346
|
When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-05-05
| 2021-05-05T00:00:00 | 2021-03-03T00:00:00 | 0.5622 |
929f4e79
|
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-04-24T00:00:00 | 2021-03-04T00:00:00 | 0.6837 |
c7cdd6fb
|
Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-03-07T00:00:00 | 0.5973 |
62141c57
|
Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-03-08T00:00:00 | 2021-03-08T00:00:00 | 0.7215 |
80d000e8
|
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-03-13T00:00:00 | 0.4785 |
8c6d922e
|
Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-03-14T00:00:00 | 0.5926 |
113567cd
|
Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.6856 |
b1185288
|
Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-03T00:00:00 | 2021-03-16T00:00:00 | 0.6676 |
a823c355
|
Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-09-03T00:00:00 | 2021-03-20T00:00:00 | 0.6887 |
60847963
|
Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-02-04T00:00:00 | 2021-03-22T00:00:00 | 0.6902 |
96c66f3c
|
Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-29T00:00:00 | 2021-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.5457 |
d9c574b9
|
When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2022-03-29T00:00:00 | 2021-03-30T00:00:00 | 0.339 |
86e3b8fa
|
Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-02T00:00:00 | 0.3961 |
bed4236f
|
Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-06-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-04T00:00:00 | 0.6193 |
bbfdd82a
|
When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-05-05
| 2021-05-05T00:00:00 | 2021-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.5518 |
8eb0c8e1
|
When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-20
| 2021-04-20T00:00:00 | 2021-04-09T00:00:00 | 0.6317 |
7e444b47
|
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
231000
| 2023-03-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.5327 |
23902347
|
Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-23T00:00:00 | 2021-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.6122 |
db7bdc27
|
What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?
|
quantity estimation
|
1400000000
| 2023-04-11T00:00:00 | 2021-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.4051 |
100d36c9
|
Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.5662 |
41f3fe75
|
How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-04-18T00:00:00 | 0.6393 |
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