id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
697c6cad
|
Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-06-28T00:00:00 | 2020-03-21T00:00:00 | 0.6814 |
f4988226
|
What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
|
quantity estimation
|
-5
| 2020-04-29T00:00:00 | 2020-03-22T00:00:00 | 0.5715 |
05ac397e
|
Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-05-21T00:00:00 | 2020-03-24T00:00:00 | 0.2167 |
d5ad803d
|
Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-04-26T00:00:00 | 2020-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6515 |
a572aa36
|
Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-04-20T00:00:00 | 2020-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6349 |
aab5ddc7
|
Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-09-15T00:00:00 | 2020-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.613 |
310e13e4
|
What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?
|
quantity estimation
|
15
| 2020-05-08T00:00:00 | 2020-03-26T00:00:00 | 0.6645 |
2cf107d0
|
What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
|
quantity estimation
|
-33
| 2020-07-30T00:00:00 | 2020-03-29T00:00:00 | 0.5395 |
147ae853
|
What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?
|
quantity estimation
|
15
| 2021-01-14T00:00:00 | 2020-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.7418 |
93abfd4c
|
Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-05-16T00:00:00 | 2020-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.6481 |
efbd247b
|
What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2021-10-08T00:00:00 | 2020-03-31T00:00:00 | 0.6592 |
bed56a54
|
When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-12-15
| 2022-01-07T00:00:00 | 2020-04-03T00:00:00 | 0.4633 |
f2beec2d
|
What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
5
| 2022-01-07T00:00:00 | 2020-04-05T00:00:00 | 0.6418 |
be1744e7
|
What will inflation be in the US in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
7
| 2022-02-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-05T00:00:00 | 0.3262 |
bf8b9437
|
Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-04-25T00:00:00 | 2020-04-06T00:00:00 | 0.6866 |
e9bcf074
|
What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
25382
| 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-07T00:00:00 | 0.6802 |
b719d832
|
How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?
|
quantity estimation
|
8
| 2025-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-07T00:00:00 | 0.6113 |
67e319a6
|
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-02-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-08T00:00:00 | 0.6537 |
cf53e576
|
Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-12-22T00:00:00 | 2020-04-08T00:00:00 | 0.5782 |
a48e2fe6
|
When will Disneyland reopen?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-30
| 2021-05-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-12T00:00:00 | 0.4641 |
21b09bfb
|
Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-04-13T00:00:00 | 0.7207 |
6544b4f0
|
What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?
|
quantity estimation
|
2
| 2020-06-07T00:00:00 | 2020-04-16T00:00:00 | 0.2158 |
600b435f
|
LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?
|
quantity estimation
|
3349
| 2020-05-09T00:00:00 | 2020-04-16T00:00:00 | 0.6286 |
0373a6ae
|
LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2020-05-09
| 2020-05-20T00:00:00 | 2020-04-16T00:00:00 | 0.5313 |
17f8685b
|
Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-07T00:00:00 | 2020-04-19T00:00:00 | 0.7053 |
64103da2
|
How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?
|
quantity estimation
|
3
| 2021-01-21T00:00:00 | 2020-04-23T00:00:00 | 0.7502 |
6e0dcb7e
|
LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?
|
quantity estimation
|
1152006
| 2020-05-04T00:00:00 | 2020-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.6232 |
0d637e14
|
LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?
|
quantity estimation
|
10880000
| 2022-05-18T00:00:00 | 2020-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.6531 |
d877d563
|
LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-05-10T00:00:00 | 2020-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.7037 |
f9258e39
|
Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-05-14T00:00:00 | 2020-04-24T00:00:00 | 0.6959 |
6aab301d
|
How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?
|
quantity estimation
|
21
| 2023-08-11T00:00:00 | 2020-04-25T00:00:00 | 0.6288 |
f7a99cfe
|
LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-05-24T00:00:00 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.6495 |
6a3f031e
|
LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-06-07T00:00:00 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.6031 |
e6e8b533
|
LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-06-21T00:00:00 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.227 |
9206b956
|
LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-06-21T00:00:00 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.6317 |
73e9619e
|
LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?
|
quantity estimation
|
659
| 2020-05-17T00:00:00 | 2020-04-27T00:00:00 | 0.693 |
43498bb7
|
What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?
|
quantity estimation
|
6
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-04-30T00:00:00 | 0.6564 |
c87a9379
|
Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2020-05-06T00:00:00 | 0.7178 |
5839fab8
|
Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-06-17T00:00:00 | 2020-05-15T00:00:00 | 0.5137 |
74d71167
|
Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-05-15T00:00:00 | 0.5751 |
8522288b
|
Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-05-17T00:00:00 | 0.6215 |
6f63841a
|
When will be the next "Great Power" war?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2024-04-21
| 2024-04-21T00:00:00 | 2020-05-20T00:00:00 | 0.5042 |
5664b16c
|
Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-05-23T00:00:00 | 0.703 |
a3838573
|
If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
7
| 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2020-05-26T00:00:00 | 0.748 |
b385573e
|
Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-09-27T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.4649 |
4597d007
|
Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-08-08T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.4988 |
fa3f1756
|
Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-20T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.4117 |
09360c99
|
Will 2020's UK Christmas #1 be a joke?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-12-25T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.4106 |
41eceba8
|
Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-11-22T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.5518 |
4a4e096d
|
How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?
|
quantity estimation
|
51
| 2020-09-02T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.6375 |
bb2637e8
|
How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?
|
quantity estimation
|
54
| 2020-09-28T00:00:00 | 2020-06-02T00:00:00 | 0.5672 |
55e02e4d
|
Will global oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-06-10T00:00:00 | 0.5844 |
395d8e0b
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-06-13T00:00:00 | 0.6207 |
d826a098
|
What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?
|
quantity estimation
|
61
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.6389 |
365ddf65
|
When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2020-08-17
| 2020-08-17T00:00:00 | 2020-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.5842 |
c8b6a934
|
What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2021-02-11T00:00:00 | 2020-06-16T00:00:00 | 0.7738 |
82931893
|
Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-06-19T00:00:00 | 0.6944 |
bad3761e
|
Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-06-19T00:00:00 | 0.6042 |
ba10bc8e
|
Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-08-20T00:00:00 | 2020-06-24T00:00:00 | 0.5417 |
4a9d3343
|
When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-06-11
| 2021-09-15T00:00:00 | 2020-06-26T00:00:00 | 0.5971 |
deb14f53
|
What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?
|
quantity estimation
|
48
| 2020-11-05T00:00:00 | 2020-06-28T00:00:00 | 0.7261 |
30ec71d6
|
Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-08-07T00:00:00 | 2020-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.5462 |
65f3a398
|
Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-06-30T00:00:00 | 0.6408 |
b6f4b308
|
Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-02-13T00:00:00 | 2020-07-01T00:00:00 | 0.5871 |
9b694d46
|
Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-05-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-01T00:00:00 | 0.5055 |
ea9ab32c
|
Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-07-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-01T00:00:00 | 0.6954 |
7eb09485
|
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-02T00:00:00 | 0.7067 |
3087a074
|
If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?
|
quantity estimation
|
66641
| 2020-12-18T00:00:00 | 2020-07-05T00:00:00 | 0.6426 |
a84051b2
|
Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2020-07-05T00:00:00 | 0.7224 |
a02cc7b6
|
Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-07-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-05T00:00:00 | 0.7271 |
e03d7699
|
Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-24T00:00:00 | 2020-07-07T00:00:00 | 0.5462 |
b302f88d
|
Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-07-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-08T00:00:00 | 0.6935 |
f085291d
|
If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-02-13T00:00:00 | 2020-07-09T00:00:00 | 0.4933 |
ad9f5f96
|
What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?
|
quantity estimation
|
15
| 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2020-07-10T00:00:00 | 0.4917 |
5a8251f8
|
What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?
|
quantity estimation
|
-4
| 2020-12-15T00:00:00 | 2020-07-11T00:00:00 | 0.7372 |
96a38c79
|
In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-01-07
| 2021-01-06T00:00:00 | 2020-07-12T00:00:00 | 0.3209 |
5d6ba56c
|
Will the "unknown pneumonia" outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-09-13T00:00:00 | 2020-07-13T00:00:00 | 0.676 |
bdd7432f
|
Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-08-16T00:00:00 | 2020-07-13T00:00:00 | 0.7277 |
1fdbd2a5
|
As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2030-06-02
| 2022-07-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-14T00:00:00 | 0.5652 |
d1044858
|
Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-04-20T00:00:00 | 2020-07-14T00:00:00 | 0.3105 |
3d834520
|
When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-05-23
| 2021-05-30T00:00:00 | 2020-07-15T00:00:00 | 0.6251 |
c4822570
|
Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-06-28T00:00:00 | 2020-07-16T00:00:00 | 0.6093 |
ffd4ed12
|
Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-17T00:00:00 | 0.7092 |
d4d9a9a2
|
[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-08-11T00:00:00 | 2020-07-22T00:00:00 | 0.4574 |
dfb3bb6f
|
[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-08-12T00:00:00 | 2020-07-24T00:00:00 | 0.6782 |
f8dcf626
|
Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-07-26T00:00:00 | 0.7248 |
91f1f87a
|
Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-07-30T00:00:00 | 0.6279 |
6a3cc6c6
|
How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2020-12-15T00:00:00 | 2020-07-31T00:00:00 | 0.8419 |
f296a5b1
|
When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-05-09
| 2021-05-09T00:00:00 | 2020-07-31T00:00:00 | 0.5699 |
0b3e4492
|
Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-27T00:00:00 | 2020-08-05T00:00:00 | 0.6262 |
a3030570
|
Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-08-08T00:00:00 | 0.7288 |
2b7b2ad2
|
Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-08-16T00:00:00 | 0.6728 |
15cbad7c
|
Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 2020-08-17T00:00:00 | 0.6938 |
4ac9cf96
|
What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?
|
quantity estimation
|
1
| 2021-08-20T00:00:00 | 2020-08-18T00:00:00 | 0.414 |
506a2ee5
|
Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-08-20T00:00:00 | 0.7042 |
9396a92d
|
Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-09-30T00:00:00 | 2020-08-24T00:00:00 | 0.634 |
2f91775b
|
Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
-28
| 2022-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-08-29T00:00:00 | 0.556 |
b83ffbd0
|
Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-08T00:00:00 | 2020-08-29T00:00:00 | 0.5624 |
2ef23a71
|
Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-26T00:00:00 | 2020-08-29T00:00:00 | 0.5824 |
3c781361
|
If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-08-30T00:00:00 | 0.6542 |
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