Nuclear Energy Value Investing Memo – Week Ending 2/June/2025

General Situation & Market Summary

This week marks a decisive shift for nuclear energy, fueled by sweeping pro-nuclear executive orders from the Trump administration, robust bipartisan support at the state and federal levels, and increased corporate demand from hyperscale data center operators such as Meta and Google [1][2][3]. The "nuclear renaissance" is manifest in regulatory accelerations, increased federal and state funding, and strategic contracts with Big Tech. Notably, the news cycle includes upgrades for nuclear stocks, significant venture funding rounds for AI-driven nuclear ventures, and government-backed SMR builds—plus ripple effects for upstream uranium miners.

Market sentiment is bullish on nuclear equities and technology providers. There's tangible momentum pouring into both legacy and disruptive names (especially SMR- and AI-aligned startups), although investors should note that capital costs and regulatory delays remain stubborn risks.

1. Key Value Signals

Executive Tailwinds: New Trump EO’s support accelerated licensing, funding, and uranium supply chain resiliency — structural regulators eased for new builds [4][9].
State grants and approvals: Texas passed a $350M nuclear grant program [6].
Strategic partnerships and PPA’s: Google and Meta sign nuclear PPA deals; Kairos Power (private SMR leader) lands deals with Big Tech [3].
Startups funded: Atomic Canyon (AI for nuclear ops) closes $7M seed; strong VC and founder backing [11].
Stock Upgrades: Oklo (OKLO), Centrus Energy (LEU), BWX Technologies (BWXT) upgraded by William Blair, explicitly tied to presidential actions [4].
Uranium supply buzz: Direct commentary from GTI Energy (ASX:GTR; uranium) spotlights bullish uranium price/volume thesis [16].
Tech-enabled nuclear: Multiple deals for SMR technologies, digital AI ops, and nuclear for maritime/data infrastructure.

2. Stocks or Startups to Watch

Upgraded or in Play

Oklo (NASDAQ: OKLO) [Startup, Recent IPO]

What: Microreactor/SMR company — major White House and sector tailwinds, newly public.
Catalyst: Upgraded post-Trump EO; top beneficiary per analysts.
Valuation: Pre-revenue, but tech moat and strategic government/energy partners.
Insider/Smart Money: Backed by Sam Altman, Peter Thiel [4].

Centrus Energy (AMEX: LEU)

What: Uranium fuel supplier with US-centric value.
Metrics: P/E ~11, P/B ~2, ROE ~22%; Market Cap ~$1.2B.
Catalyst: Government support for US supply, upgraded by analysts.
Moat: Key domestic enrichment capability.
[4], [17]

BWX Technologies (NYSE: BWXT)

What: Reactors for US Navy (defense moat) & utilities.
Metrics: P/E ~25, P/B ~5.8, ROE ~36%, Market Cap ~$8.6B.
Catalyst: Upgrade on presidential support, huge federal contracts.
[4]

GTI Energy (ASX: GTR)

What: Small-cap uranium developer, "uranium buzz" name.
Catalyst: Publicly lauded tailwinds by CEO, levered to US uranium push.
[16]

High-Impact Startups

Atomic Canyon (Private)

What: AI for nuclear compliance, ops, and maintenance (B2B SaaS).
Catalyst: Landed Diablo Canyon (major US plant) as client, $7M seed from Energy Impact Partners, Commonweal, Plug and Play, Tower Research, Wischoff.
Signal: Well-connected investors, strategic bridge between AI and nuclear infra.
[11], [12]

Kairos Power (Private)

What: US SMR developer, Google’s first SMR PPA.
Catalyst: Strategic proof-point for SMR commercialization, signaling major institutional validation.
[3]

3. What Smart Money Might Be Acting On

Venture backers: Energy Impact Partners, Plug and Play, Tower Research are betting on Atomic Canyon, validating AI’s inevitable role in nuclear digitization [12].
Insider investors: Sam Altman, Peter Thiel, and other Silicon Valley luminaries are aligned to Oklo, a sign of big-ticket belief in next-gen reactors [4].
Tech majors: Google (via SMR PPA with Kairos Power) and Meta (exploring nuclear for data centers) are unlikely to backtrack — durable, volume offtake validation [3], [2].
Active upgrades: William Blair and others raising targets for BWXT, LEU, and OKLO immediately after White House/regulatory actions [4].

4. References

5. Investment Hypothesis

The current newsflow marks a structural inflection point for nuclear energy in the US and allied markets. Catalyst stacking — from bipartisan support, federal and state grants, White House executive orders, to urgent demand from hyperscale data centers and defense — is driving multiple fundamental and trigger events:

Oklo (OKLO): Early-stage, speculative but with tech and regulatory moats, institutional and insider backing, and direct ties to US policy. Potential 5–10x if it achieves early commercial milestones.
Centrus Energy (LEU): Profitable, unique “picks and shovels” play on US fuel sovereignty, undervalued relative to new cash flows and policy tailwinds.
BWX Technologies (BWXT): Mid-/large cap with recession-resistant defense and civil reactor businesses; ideal for institutional portfolios seeking balance.
Atomic Canyon: Private, but a “future pick-and-shovel” for digital ops in nuclear—evidence of VC smart money converging on the sector.

Downside risks: Regulatory overhangs, cost overruns, and safety/lobbying backlash could impede rapid nuclear scaling—tempering parabolic runs.

Conclusion:
This week’s news cements nuclear as a durable, high-growth infrastructure theme for the next decade with both policy and institutional tailwinds. Well-run, undervalued or newly upgraded public nuclear stocks—especially with alignment to supply (LEU), defense (BWXT), and innovative new build (OKLO)—present strong upside. Meanwhile, closely follow VC and Big Tech’s footprints for future SMR and AI-software-linked deals.

Summary Table: Potential Picks

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	P/E	ROE	Catalyst
Oklo	OKLO	~$560M	—	—	SMR, gov/insider backing
Centrus Energy	LEU	~$1.2B	~11	~22%	Uranium, analyst upgrades
BWX Technologies	BWXT	~$8.6B	~25	~36%	Defense, U.S. Navy, gov’t
GTI Energy	GTR	~$40M (AUD)	—	—	Uranium, U.S. expansion
Atomic Canyon	—	Private	—	—	AI SaaS, Diabolo Canyon win
Kairos Power	—	Private	—	—	Google SMR PPA

Data based on latest available annual/quarterly filings and estimates.