Daily Papers

Diagnosis of bearing faults is paramount to reducing maintenance costs and operational breakdowns. Bearing faults are primary contributors to machine vibrations, and analyzing their signal morphology offers insights into their health status. Unfortunately, existing approaches are optimized for controlled environments, neglecting realistic conditions such as time-varying rotational speeds and the vibration's non-stationary nature. This paper presents a fusion of time-frequency analysis and deep learning techniques to diagnose bearing faults under time-varying speeds and varying noise levels. First, we formulate the bearing fault-induced vibrations and discuss the link between their non-stationarity and the bearing's inherent and operational parameters. We also elucidate quadratic time-frequency distributions and validate their effectiveness in resolving distinctive dynamic patterns associated with different bearing faults. Based on this, we design a time-frequency convolutional neural network (TF-CNN) to diagnose various faults in rolling-element bearings. Our experimental findings undeniably demonstrate the superior performance of TF-CNN in comparison to recently developed techniques. They also assert its versatility in capturing fault-relevant non-stationary features that couple with speed changes and show its exceptional resilience to noise, consistently surpassing competing methods across various signal-to-noise ratios and performance metrics. Altogether, the TF-CNN achieves substantial accuracy improvements up to 15%, in severe noise conditions.

We propose Parallel WaveGAN, a distillation-free, fast, and small-footprint waveform generation method using a generative adversarial network. In the proposed method, a non-autoregressive WaveNet is trained by jointly optimizing multi-resolution spectrogram and adversarial loss functions, which can effectively capture the time-frequency distribution of the realistic speech waveform. As our method does not require density distillation used in the conventional teacher-student framework, the entire model can be easily trained. Furthermore, our model is able to generate high-fidelity speech even with its compact architecture. In particular, the proposed Parallel WaveGAN has only 1.44 M parameters and can generate 24 kHz speech waveform 28.68 times faster than real-time on a single GPU environment. Perceptual listening test results verify that our proposed method achieves 4.16 mean opinion score within a Transformer-based text-to-speech framework, which is comparative to the best distillation-based Parallel WaveNet system.

In this paper, we investigate the adversarial robustness of vision transformers that are equipped with BERT pretraining (e.g., BEiT, MAE). A surprising observation is that MAE has significantly worse adversarial robustness than other BERT pretraining methods. This observation drives us to rethink the basic differences between these BERT pretraining methods and how these differences affect the robustness against adversarial perturbations. Our empirical analysis reveals that the adversarial robustness of BERT pretraining is highly related to the reconstruction target, i.e., predicting the raw pixels of masked image patches will degrade more adversarial robustness of the model than predicting the semantic context, since it guides the model to concentrate more on medium-/high-frequency components of images. Based on our analysis, we provide a simple yet effective way to boost the adversarial robustness of MAE. The basic idea is using the dataset-extracted domain knowledge to occupy the medium-/high-frequency of images, thus narrowing the optimization space of adversarial perturbations. Specifically, we group the distribution of pretraining data and optimize a set of cluster-specific visual prompts on frequency domain. These prompts are incorporated with input images through prototype-based prompt selection during test period. Extensive evaluation shows that our method clearly boost MAE's adversarial robustness while maintaining its clean performance on ImageNet-1k classification. Our code is available at: https://github.com/shikiw/RobustMAE.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a key technique for improving conditional generation in diffusion models, enabling more accurate control while enhancing sample quality. It is natural to extend this technique to video diffusion, which generates video conditioned on a variable number of context frames, collectively referred to as history. However, we find two key challenges to guiding with variable-length history: architectures that only support fixed-size conditioning, and the empirical observation that CFG-style history dropout performs poorly. To address this, we propose the Diffusion Forcing Transformer (DFoT), a video diffusion architecture and theoretically grounded training objective that jointly enable conditioning on a flexible number of history frames. We then introduce History Guidance, a family of guidance methods uniquely enabled by DFoT. We show that its simplest form, vanilla history guidance, already significantly improves video generation quality and temporal consistency. A more advanced method, history guidance across time and frequency further enhances motion dynamics, enables compositional generalization to out-of-distribution history, and can stably roll out extremely long videos. Website: https://boyuan.space/history-guidance

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

Despite their widespread use, the mechanisms by which large language models (LLMs) represent and regulate uncertainty in next-token predictions remain largely unexplored. This study investigates two critical components believed to influence this uncertainty: the recently discovered entropy neurons and a new set of components that we term token frequency neurons. Entropy neurons are characterized by an unusually high weight norm and influence the final layer normalization (LayerNorm) scale to effectively scale down the logits. Our work shows that entropy neurons operate by writing onto an unembedding null space, allowing them to impact the residual stream norm with minimal direct effect on the logits themselves. We observe the presence of entropy neurons across a range of models, up to 7 billion parameters. On the other hand, token frequency neurons, which we discover and describe here for the first time, boost or suppress each token's logit proportionally to its log frequency, thereby shifting the output distribution towards or away from the unigram distribution. Finally, we present a detailed case study where entropy neurons actively manage confidence in the setting of induction, i.e. detecting and continuing repeated subsequences.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making across various domains, but it presents significant challenges. Recent studies have explored image-driven approaches using computer vision models to address these challenges, often employing lineplots as the visual representation of time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses time-frequency spectrograms as the visual representation of time series data. We introduce the use of a vision transformer for multimodal learning, showcasing the advantages of our approach across diverse datasets from different domains. To evaluate its effectiveness, we compare our method against statistical baselines (EMA and ARIMA), a state-of-the-art deep learning-based approach (DeepAR), other visual representations of time series data (lineplot images), and an ablation study on using only the time series as input. Our experiments demonstrate the benefits of utilizing spectrograms as a visual representation for time series data, along with the advantages of employing a vision transformer for simultaneous learning in both the time and frequency domains.

Time-frequency (TF) representations provide powerful and intuitive features for the analysis of time series such as audio. But still, generative modeling of audio in the TF domain is a subtle matter. Consequently, neural audio synthesis widely relies on directly modeling the waveform and previous attempts at unconditionally synthesizing audio from neurally generated invertible TF features still struggle to produce audio at satisfying quality. In this article, focusing on the short-time Fourier transform, we discuss the challenges that arise in audio synthesis based on generated invertible TF features and how to overcome them. We demonstrate the potential of deliberate generative TF modeling by training a generative adversarial network (GAN) on short-time Fourier features. We show that by applying our guidelines, our TF-based network was able to outperform a state-of-the-art GAN generating waveforms directly, despite the similar architecture in the two networks.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

In this paper, we introduce FITS, a lightweight yet powerful model for time series analysis. Unlike existing models that directly process raw time-domain data, FITS operates on the principle that time series can be manipulated through interpolation in the complex frequency domain. By discarding high-frequency components with negligible impact on time series data, FITS achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art models for time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks, while having a remarkably compact size of only approximately 10k parameters. Such a lightweight model can be easily trained and deployed in edge devices, creating opportunities for various applications. The code is available in: https://github.com/VEWOXIC/FITS

Time-series forecasting is crucial for numerous real-world applications including weather prediction and financial market modeling. While temporal-domain methods remain prevalent, frequency-domain approaches can effectively capture multi-scale periodic patterns, reduce sequence dependencies, and naturally denoise signals. However, existing approaches typically train model components for all frequencies under a unified training objective, often leading to mismatched learning speeds: high-frequency components converge faster and risk overfitting, while low-frequency components underfit due to insufficient training time. To deal with this challenge, we propose BEAT (Balanced frEquency Adaptive Tuning), a novel framework that dynamically monitors the training status for each frequency and adaptively adjusts their gradient updates. By recognizing convergence, overfitting, or underfitting for each frequency, BEAT dynamically reallocates learning priorities, moderating gradients for rapid learners and increasing those for slower ones, alleviating the tension between competing objectives across frequencies and synchronizing the overall learning process. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that BEAT consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

Spectrograms are pivotal in time-frequency signal analysis, widely used in audio processing and computational neuroscience. Chirp-like patterns in electroencephalogram (EEG) spectrograms (marked by linear or exponential frequency sweep) are key biomarkers for seizure dynamics, but automated tools for their detection, localization, and feature extraction are lacking. This study bridges this gap by fine-tuning a Vision Transformer (ViT) model on synthetic spectrograms, augmented with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to boost adaptability. We generated 100000 synthetic spectrograms with chirp parameters, creating the first large-scale benchmark for chirp localization. These spectrograms mimic neural chirps using linear or exponential frequency sweep, Gaussian noise, and smoothing. A ViT model, adapted for regression, predicted chirp parameters. LoRA fine-tuned the attention layers, enabling efficient updates to the pre-trained backbone. Training used MSE loss and the AdamW optimizer, with a learning rate scheduler and early stopping to curb overfitting. Only three features were targeted: Chirp Start Time (Onset Time), Chirp Start Frequency (Onset Frequency), and Chirp End Frequency (Offset Frequency). Performance was evaluated via Pearson correlation between predicted and actual labels. Results showed strong alignment: 0.9841 correlation for chirp start time, with stable inference times (137 to 140s) and minimal bias in error distributions. This approach offers a tool for chirp analysis in EEG time-frequency representation, filling a critical methodological void.

Recent advancements in neural vocoding are predominantly driven by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) operating in the time-domain. While effective, this approach neglects the inductive bias offered by time-frequency representations, resulting in reduntant and computionally-intensive upsampling operations. Fourier-based time-frequency representation is an appealing alternative, aligning more accurately with human auditory perception, and benefitting from well-established fast algorithms for its computation. Nevertheless, direct reconstruction of complex-valued spectrograms has been historically problematic, primarily due to phase recovery issues. This study seeks to close this gap by presenting Vocos, a new model that directly generates Fourier spectral coefficients. Vocos not only matches the state-of-the-art in audio quality, as demonstrated in our evaluations, but it also substantially improves computational efficiency, achieving an order of magnitude increase in speed compared to prevailing time-domain neural vocoding approaches. The source code and model weights have been open-sourced at https://github.com/charactr-platform/vocos.

The performance of transformers for time-series forecasting has improved significantly. Recent architectures learn complex temporal patterns by segmenting a time-series into patches and using the patches as tokens. The patch size controls the ability of transformers to learn the temporal patterns at different frequencies: shorter patches are effective for learning localized, high-frequency patterns, whereas mining long-term seasonalities and trends requires longer patches. Inspired by this observation, we propose a novel framework, Multi-resolution Time-Series Transformer (MTST), which consists of a multi-branch architecture for simultaneous modeling of diverse temporal patterns at different resolutions. In contrast to many existing time-series transformers, we employ relative positional encoding, which is better suited for extracting periodic components at different scales. Extensive experiments on several real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTST in comparison to state-of-the-art forecasting techniques.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.

Time series classification (TSC) on multivariate time series is a critical problem. We propose a novel multi-view approach integrating frequency-domain and time-domain features to provide complementary contexts for TSC. Our method fuses continuous wavelet transform spectral features with temporal convolutional or multilayer perceptron features. We leverage the Mamba state space model for efficient and scalable sequence modeling. We also introduce a novel tango scanning scheme to better model sequence relationships. Experiments on 10 standard benchmark datasets demonstrate our approach achieves an average 6.45% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art TSC models.

Visualizing multiple time series presents fundamental tradeoffs between scalability and visual clarity. Time series capture the behavior of many large-scale real-world processes, from stock market trends to urban activities. Users often gain insights by visualizing them as line charts, juxtaposing or superposing multiple time series to compare them and identify trends and patterns. However, existing representations struggle with scalability: when covering long time spans, leading to visual clutter from too many small multiples or overlapping lines. We propose TiVy, a new algorithm that summarizes time series using sequential patterns. It transforms the series into a set of symbolic sequences based on subsequence visual similarity using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), then constructs a disjoint grouping of similar subsequences based on the frequent sequential patterns. The grouping result, a visual summary of time series, provides uncluttered superposition with fewer small multiples. Unlike common clustering techniques, TiVy extracts similar subsequences (of varying lengths) aligned in time. We also present an interactive time series visualization that renders large-scale time series in real-time. Our experimental evaluation shows that our algorithm (1) extracts clear and accurate patterns when visualizing time series data, (2) achieves a significant speed-up (1000X) compared to a straightforward DTW clustering. We also demonstrate the efficiency of our approach to explore hidden structures in massive time series data in two usage scenarios.

Time series data from observations of black hole ringdown gravitational waves are often analyzed in the time domain by using damped sinusoid models with acyclic boundary conditions. Data conditioning operations, including downsampling, filtering, and the choice of data segment duration, reduce the computational cost of such analyses and can improve numerical stability. Here we analyze simulated damped sinsuoid signals to illustrate how data conditioning operations, if not carefully applied, can undesirably alter the analysis' posterior distributions. We discuss how currently implemented downsampling and filtering methods, if applied too aggressively, can introduce systematic errors and skew tests of general relativity. These issues arise because current downsampling and filtering methods do not operate identically on the data and model. Alternative downsampling and filtering methods which identically operate on the data and model may be achievable, but we argue that the current operations can still be implemented safely. We also show that our preferred anti-alias filtering technique, which has an instantaneous frequency-domain response at its roll-off frequency, preserves the structure of posterior distributions better than other commonly used filters with transient frequency-domain responses. Lastly, we highlight that exceptionally long data segments may need to be analyzed in cases where thin lines in the noise power spectral density overlap with central signal frequencies. Our findings may be broadly applicable to any analysis of truncated time domain data with acyclic boundary conditions.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Diffusion models have demonstrated robust data generation capabilities in various research fields. In this paper, a Time Series Diffusion Method (TSDM) is proposed for vibration signal generation, leveraging the foundational principles of diffusion models. The TSDM uses an improved U-net architecture with attention block to effectively segment and extract features from one-dimensional time series data. It operates based on forward diffusion and reverse denoising processes for time-series generation. Experimental validation is conducted using single-frequency, multi-frequency datasets, and bearing fault datasets. The results show that TSDM can accurately generate the single-frequency and multi-frequency features in the time series and retain the basic frequency features for the diffusion generation results of the bearing fault series. Finally, TSDM is applied to the small sample fault diagnosis of three public bearing fault datasets, and the results show that the accuracy of small sample fault diagnosis of the three datasets is improved by 32.380%, 18.355% and 9.298% at most, respectively

In time series forecasting, effectively disentangling intricate temporal patterns is crucial. While recent works endeavor to combine decomposition techniques with deep learning, multiple frequencies may still be mixed in the decomposed components, e.g., trend and seasonal. Furthermore, frequency domain analysis methods, e.g., Fourier and wavelet transforms, have limitations in resolution in the time domain and adaptability. In this paper, we propose D-PAD, a deep-shallow multi-frequency patterns disentangling neural network for time series forecasting. Specifically, a multi-component decomposing (MCD) block is introduced to decompose the series into components with different frequency ranges, corresponding to the "shallow" aspect. A decomposition-reconstruction-decomposition (D-R-D) module is proposed to progressively extract the information of frequencies mixed in the components, corresponding to the "deep" aspect. After that, an interaction and fusion (IF) module is used to further analyze the components. Extensive experiments on seven real-world datasets demonstrate that D-PAD achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline by an average of 9.48% and 7.15% in MSE and MAE, respectively.

Time series analysis stands as a focal point within the data mining community, serving as a cornerstone for extracting valuable insights crucial to a myriad of real-world applications. Recent advances in Foundation Models (FMs) have fundamentally reshaped the paradigm of model design for time series analysis, boosting various downstream tasks in practice. These innovative approaches often leverage pre-trained or fine-tuned FMs to harness generalized knowledge tailored for time series analysis. This survey aims to furnish a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of FMs for time series analysis. While prior surveys have predominantly focused on either application or pipeline aspects of FMs in time series analysis, they have often lacked an in-depth understanding of the underlying mechanisms that elucidate why and how FMs benefit time series analysis. To address this gap, our survey adopts a methodology-centric classification, delineating various pivotal elements of time-series FMs, including model architectures, pre-training techniques, adaptation methods, and data modalities. Overall, this survey serves to consolidate the latest advancements in FMs pertinent to time series analysis, accentuating their theoretical underpinnings, recent strides in development, and avenues for future exploration.

We present TimeFound, an encoder-decoder transformer-based time series foundation model for out-of-the-box zero-shot forecasting. To handle time series data from various domains, TimeFound employs a multi-resolution patching strategy to capture complex temporal patterns at multiple scales. We pre-train our model with two sizes (200M and 710M parameters) on a large time-series corpus comprising both real-world and synthetic datasets. Over a collection of unseen datasets across diverse domains and forecasting horizons, our empirical evaluations suggest that TimeFound can achieve superior or competitive zero-shot forecasting performance, compared to state-of-the-art time series foundation models.

Time series analysis is of immense importance in extensive applications, such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and action recognition. This paper focuses on temporal variation modeling, which is the common key problem of extensive analysis tasks. Previous methods attempt to accomplish this directly from the 1D time series, which is extremely challenging due to the intricate temporal patterns. Based on the observation of multi-periodicity in time series, we ravel out the complex temporal variations into the multiple intraperiod- and interperiod-variations. To tackle the limitations of 1D time series in representation capability, we extend the analysis of temporal variations into the 2D space by transforming the 1D time series into a set of 2D tensors based on multiple periods. This transformation can embed the intraperiod- and interperiod-variations into the columns and rows of the 2D tensors respectively, making the 2D-variations to be easily modeled by 2D kernels. Technically, we propose the TimesNet with TimesBlock as a task-general backbone for time series analysis. TimesBlock can discover the multi-periodicity adaptively and extract the complex temporal variations from transformed 2D tensors by a parameter-efficient inception block. Our proposed TimesNet achieves consistent state-of-the-art in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/TimesNet.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.

Recently, universal waveform generation tasks have been investigated conditioned on various out-of-distribution scenarios. Although GAN-based methods have shown their strength in fast waveform generation, they are vulnerable to train-inference mismatch scenarios such as two-stage text-to-speech. Meanwhile, diffusion-based models have shown their powerful generative performance in other domains; however, they stay out of the limelight due to slow inference speed in waveform generation tasks. Above all, there is no generator architecture that can explicitly disentangle the natural periodic features of high-resolution waveform signals. In this paper, we propose PeriodWave, a novel universal waveform generation model. First, we introduce a period-aware flow matching estimator that can capture the periodic features of the waveform signal when estimating the vector fields. Additionally, we utilize a multi-period estimator that avoids overlaps to capture different periodic features of waveform signals. Although increasing the number of periods can improve the performance significantly, this requires more computational costs. To reduce this issue, we also propose a single period-conditional universal estimator that can feed-forward parallel by period-wise batch inference. Additionally, we utilize discrete wavelet transform to losslessly disentangle the frequency information of waveform signals for high-frequency modeling, and introduce FreeU to reduce the high-frequency noise for waveform generation. The experimental results demonstrated that our model outperforms the previous models both in Mel-spectrogram reconstruction and text-to-speech tasks. All source code will be available at https://github.com/sh-lee-prml/PeriodWave.

Irregularly sampled time series data arise naturally in many application domains including biology, ecology, climate science, astronomy, and health. Such data represent fundamental challenges to many classical models from machine learning and statistics due to the presence of non-uniform intervals between observations. However, there has been significant progress within the machine learning community over the last decade on developing specialized models and architectures for learning from irregularly sampled univariate and multivariate time series data. In this survey, we first describe several axes along which approaches to learning from irregularly sampled time series differ including what data representations they are based on, what modeling primitives they leverage to deal with the fundamental problem of irregular sampling, and what inference tasks they are designed to perform. We then survey the recent literature organized primarily along the axis of modeling primitives. We describe approaches based on temporal discretization, interpolation, recurrence, attention and structural invariance. We discuss similarities and differences between approaches and highlight primary strengths and weaknesses.

Time series data are ubiquitous across a wide range of real-world domains. While real-world time series analysis (TSA) requires human experts to integrate numerical series data with multimodal domain-specific knowledge, most existing TSA models rely solely on numerical data, overlooking the significance of information beyond numerical series. This oversight is due to the untapped potential of textual series data and the absence of a comprehensive, high-quality multimodal dataset. To overcome this obstacle, we introduce Time-MMD, the first multi-domain, multimodal time series dataset covering 9 primary data domains. Time-MMD ensures fine-grained modality alignment, eliminates data contamination, and provides high usability. Additionally, we develop MM-TSFlib, the first multimodal time-series forecasting (TSF) library, seamlessly pipelining multimodal TSF evaluations based on Time-MMD for in-depth analyses. Extensive experiments conducted on Time-MMD through MM-TSFlib demonstrate significant performance enhancements by extending unimodal TSF to multimodality, evidenced by over 15% mean squared error reduction in general, and up to 40% in domains with rich textual data. More importantly, our datasets and library revolutionize broader applications, impacts, research topics to advance TSA. The dataset and library are available at https://github.com/AdityaLab/Time-MMD and https://github.com/AdityaLab/MM-TSFlib.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Time series analysis has witnessed the inspiring development from traditional autoregressive models, deep learning models, to recent Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs). Efforts in leveraging vision models for time series analysis have also been made along the way but are less visible to the community due to the predominant research on sequence modeling in this domain. However, the discrepancy between continuous time series and the discrete token space of LLMs, and the challenges in explicitly modeling the correlations of variates in multivariate time series have shifted some research attentions to the equally successful Large Vision Models (LVMs) and Vision Language Models (VLMs). To fill the blank in the existing literature, this survey discusses the advantages of vision models over LLMs in time series analysis. It provides a comprehensive and in-depth overview of the existing methods, with dual views of detailed taxonomy that answer the key research questions including how to encode time series as images and how to model the imaged time series for various tasks. Additionally, we address the challenges in the pre- and post-processing steps involved in this framework and outline future directions to further advance time series analysis with vision models.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Time series analysis is a fundamental task in various application domains, and deep learning approaches have demonstrated remarkable performance in this area. However, many real-world time series data exhibit significant periodic or quasi-periodic dynamics that are often not adequately captured by existing deep learning-based solutions. This results in an incomplete representation of the underlying dynamic behaviors of interest. To address this gap, we propose an unsupervised method called Floss that automatically regularizes learned representations in the frequency domain. The Floss method first automatically detects major periodicities from the time series. It then employs periodic shift and spectral density similarity measures to learn meaningful representations with periodic consistency. In addition, Floss can be easily incorporated into both supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning frameworks. We conduct extensive experiments on common time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection tasks to demonstrate the effectiveness of Floss. We incorporate Floss into several representative deep learning solutions to justify our design choices and demonstrate that it is capable of automatically discovering periodic dynamics and improving state-of-the-art deep learning models.

State-space models (SSMs) offer a powerful framework for dynamical system analysis, wherein the temporal dynamics of the system are assumed to be captured through the evolution of the latent states, which govern the values of the observations. This paper provides a selective review of recent advancements in deep neural network-based approaches for SSMs, and presents a unified perspective for discrete time deep state space models and continuous time ones such as latent neural Ordinary Differential and Stochastic Differential Equations. It starts with an overview of the classical maximum likelihood based approach for learning SSMs, reviews variational autoencoder as a general learning pipeline for neural network-based approaches in the presence of latent variables, and discusses in detail representative deep learning models that fall under the SSM framework. Very recent developments, where SSMs are used as standalone architectural modules for improving efficiency in sequence modeling, are also examined. Finally, examples involving mixed frequency and irregularly-spaced time series data are presented to demonstrate the advantage of SSMs in these settings.

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in developing foundation models for time series data that can generalize across diverse downstream tasks. While numerous forecasting-oriented foundation models have been introduced, there is a notable scarcity of models tailored for time series classification. To address this gap, we present Mantis, a new open-source foundation model for time series classification based on the Vision Transformer (ViT) architecture that has been pre-trained using a contrastive learning approach. Our experimental results show that Mantis outperforms existing foundation models both when the backbone is frozen and when fine-tuned, while achieving the lowest calibration error. In addition, we propose several adapters to handle the multivariate setting, reducing memory requirements and modeling channel interdependence.

Analyzing both temporal and spatial patterns for an accurate forecasting model for financial time series forecasting is a challenge due to the complex nature of temporal-spatial dynamics: time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary as time goes by. Inspired by the successful applications of deep learning, we propose a new model to resolve the issues of forecasting household leverage in China. Our solution consists of multiple RNN-based layers and an attention layer: each RNN-based layer automatically learns the temporal pattern of a specific series with multivariate exogenous series, and then the attention layer learns the spatial correlative weight and obtains the global representations simultaneously. The results show that the new approach can capture the temporal-spatial dynamics of household leverage well and get more accurate and solid predictive results. More, the simulation also studies show that clustering and choosing correlative series are necessary to obtain accurate forecasting results.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity data (e.g. minutes, seconds, milliseconds), prevalent in operational use-cases. Traditional models, such as auto-regression fitted with least squares (Classic-AR) can model time-series with a concise and interpretable model. When dealing with long-range dependencies, Classic-AR models can become intractably slow to fit for large data. Recently, sequence-to-sequence models, such as Recurrent Neural Networks, which were originally intended for natural language processing, have become popular for time-series. However, they can be overly complex for typical time-series data and lack interpretability. A scalable and interpretable model is needed to bridge the statistical and deep learning-based approaches. As a first step towards this goal, we propose modelling AR-process dynamics using a feed-forward neural network approach, termed AR-Net. We show that AR-Net is as interpretable as Classic-AR but also scales to long-range dependencies. Our results lead to three major conclusions: First, AR-Net learns identical AR-coefficients as Classic-AR, thus being equally interpretable. Second, the computational complexity with respect to the order of the AR process, is linear for AR-Net as compared to a quadratic for Classic-AR. This makes it possible to model long-range dependencies within fine granularity data. Third, by introducing regularization, AR-Net automatically selects and learns sparse AR-coefficients. This eliminates the need to know the exact order of the AR-process and allows to learn sparse weights for a model with long-range dependencies.

Although native speech and music envelope following responses (EFRs) play a crucial role in auditory processing and cognition, their frequency profile, such as the dominating frequency and spectral coherence, is largely unknown. We have assumed that the auditory pathway - which transmits envelope components of speech and music to the scalp through time-varying neurophysiological processes - is a linear time-varying system, with the envelope and the multi-channel EEG responses as excitation and response, respectively. This paper investigates the transfer function of this system through two analytical techniques - time-averaged spectral responses and cross-spectral density - in the frequency domain at four different positions of the human scalp. Our findings suggest that alpha (8-11 Hz), lower gamma (53-56 Hz), and higher gamma (78-81 Hz) bands are the peak responses of the system. These frequently appearing dominant frequency responses may be the key components of familiar speech perception, maintaining attention, binding acoustic features, and memory processing. The cross-spectral density, which reflects the spatial neural coherence of the human brain, shows that 10-13 Hz, 27-29 Hz, and 62-64 Hz are common for all channel pairs. As neural coherences are frequently observed in these frequencies among native participants, we suggest that these distributed neural processes are also dominant in native speech and music perception.

A sizeable fraction of gamma-ray burst (GRB) light curves (LCs) features a sequence of peaks, which holds information on the unknown way energy is dissipated into gamma-rays over time. Traditional searches for periodic signals in GRB LCs turned out to be inconclusive, partly because they are challenging as a consequence of the short-lived, coloured-noise, and non-stationary nature of the LCs themselves. Yet, recent claims have revived the issue. We searched for periodic components in GRB LCs through a new approach to GRBs, that avoids most of the issues faced by traditional techniques. We identified peaks through a well tested algorithm and selected GRBs with at least 10 peaks out of 5 GRB catalogues (Swift/BAT, CGRO/BATSE, Fermi/GBM, Insight-HXMT, BeppoSAX/GRBM). Each GRB was simply treated as a discrete point process, whose realisation coincides with the sequence of peak times. We searched for possible periodic recurrences based on the multinomial distribution, after accounting for the clustering of peaks due to the non-stationarity of the GRB signals. The best candidate has a p-value of 3e-4 that there is no periodic recurrence. However, accounting for the multiple trials of 555 searched GRBs, its statistical significance is demoted to 17%. The overall distribution of the p-values obtained for all GRBs is compatible with a uniform distribution in [0,1]. We found no robust evidence for multi-peaked GRBs with periodic recurrences. We can exclude that a sizeable fraction (>~ 0.75) of peaks of each GRB with at least 10 peaks are periodic. While our result does not necessarily clash with claimed periodicities based on Fourier techniques, it constrains the putative recurrent behaviour, which would not manifest itself through the sequence of peaks, but, evidently, in a more elusive way.

The growing popularity of wearable sensors has generated large quantities of temporal physiological and activity data. Ability to analyze this data offers new opportunities for real-time health monitoring and forecasting. However, temporal physiological data presents many analytic challenges: the data is noisy, contains many missing values, and each series has a different length. Most methods proposed for time series analysis and classification do not handle datasets with these characteristics nor do they offer interpretability and explainability, a critical requirement in the health domain. We propose an unsupervised method for learning representations of time series based on common patterns identified within them. The patterns are, interpretable, variable in length, and extracted using Byte Pair Encoding compression technique. In this way the method can capture both long-term and short-term dependencies present in the data. We show that this method applies to both univariate and multivariate time series and beats state-of-the-art approaches on a real world dataset collected from wearable sensors.

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Recent imitation learning policies, often framed as time series prediction tasks, directly map robotic observations-such as high-dimensional visual data and proprioception-into the action space. While time series prediction primarily relies on spatial domain modeling, the underutilization of frequency domain analysis in robotic manipulation trajectory prediction may lead to neglecting the inherent temporal information embedded within action sequences. To address this, we reframe imitation learning policies through the lens of the frequency domain and introduce the Wavelet Policy. This novel approach employs wavelet transforms (WT) for feature preprocessing and extracts multi-scale features from the frequency domain using the SE2MD (Single Encoder to Multiple Decoder) architecture. Furthermore, to enhance feature mapping in the frequency domain and increase model capacity, we introduce a Learnable Frequency-Domain Filter (LFDF) after each frequency decoder, improving adaptability under different visual conditions. Our results show that the Wavelet Policy outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) end-to-end methods by over 10% on four challenging robotic arm tasks, while maintaining a comparable parameter count. In long-range settings, its performance declines more slowly as task volume increases. The source code is available at https://github.com/lurenjia384/Wavelet_Policy.

User preferences follow a dynamic pattern over a day, e.g., at 8 am, a user might prefer to read news, while at 8 pm, they might prefer to watch movies. Time modeling aims to enable recommendation systems to perceive time changes to capture users' dynamic preferences over time, which is an important and challenging problem in recommendation systems. Especially, streaming recommendation systems in the industry, with only available samples of the current moment, present greater challenges for time modeling. There is still a lack of effective time modeling methods for streaming recommendation systems. In this paper, we propose an effective and universal method Interest Clock to perceive time information in recommendation systems. Interest Clock first encodes users' time-aware preferences into a clock (hour-level personalized features) and then uses Gaussian distribution to smooth and aggregate them into the final interest clock embedding according to the current time for the final prediction. By arming base models with Interest Clock, we conduct online A/B tests, obtaining +0.509% and +0.758% improvements on user active days and app duration respectively. Besides, the extended offline experiments show improvements as well. Interest Clock has been deployed on Douyin Music App.

Generative diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool for high-quality image synthesis, yet their iterative nature demands significant computational resources. This paper proposes an efficient time step sampling method based on an image spectral analysis of the diffusion process, aimed at optimizing the denoising process. Instead of the traditional uniform distribution-based time step sampling, we introduce a Beta distribution-like sampling technique that prioritizes critical steps in the early and late stages of the process. Our hypothesis is that certain steps exhibit significant changes in image content, while others contribute minimally. We validated our approach using Fourier transforms to measure frequency response changes at each step, revealing substantial low-frequency changes early on and high-frequency adjustments later. Experiments with ADM and Stable Diffusion demonstrated that our Beta Sampling method consistently outperforms uniform sampling, achieving better FID and IS scores, and offers competitive efficiency relative to state-of-the-art methods like AutoDiffusion. This work provides a practical framework for enhancing diffusion model efficiency by focusing computational resources on the most impactful steps, with potential for further optimization and broader application.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Diffusion models have recently been shown to be relevant for high-quality speech generation. Most work has been focused on generating spectrograms, and as such, they further require a subsequent model to convert the spectrogram to a waveform (i.e., a vocoder). This work proposes a diffusion probabilistic end-to-end model for generating a raw speech waveform. The proposed model is autoregressive, generating overlapping frames sequentially, where each frame is conditioned on a portion of the previously generated one. Hence, our model can effectively synthesize an unlimited speech duration while preserving high-fidelity synthesis and temporal coherence. We implemented the proposed model for unconditional and conditional speech generation, where the latter can be driven by an input sequence of phonemes, amplitudes, and pitch values. Working on the waveform directly has some empirical advantages. Specifically, it allows the creation of local acoustic behaviors, like vocal fry, which makes the overall waveform sounds more natural. Furthermore, the proposed diffusion model is stochastic and not deterministic; therefore, each inference generates a slightly different waveform variation, enabling abundance of valid realizations. Experiments show that the proposed model generates speech with superior quality compared with other state-of-the-art neural speech generation systems.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Inferring music time structures has a broad range of applications in music production, processing and analysis. Scholars have proposed various methods to analyze different aspects of time structures, such as beat, downbeat, tempo and meter. Many state-of-the-art (SOFA) methods, however, are computationally expensive. This makes them inapplicable in real-world industrial settings where the scale of the music collections can be millions. This paper proposes a new state space and a semi-Markov model for music time structure analysis. The proposed approach turns the commonly used 2D state spaces into a 1D model through a jump-back reward strategy. It reduces the state spaces size drastically. We then utilize the proposed method for causal, joint beat, downbeat, tempo, and meter tracking, and compare it against several previous methods. The proposed method delivers similar performance with the SOFA joint causal models with a much smaller state space and a more than 30 times speedup.

Data collected from the real world typically exhibit long-tailed distributions, where frequent classes contain abundant data while rare ones have only a limited number of samples. While existing supervised learning approaches have been proposed to tackle such data imbalance, the requirement of label supervision would limit their applicability to real-world scenarios in which label annotation might not be available. Without the access to class labels nor the associated class frequencies, we propose Frequency-Aware Self-Supervised Learning (FASSL) in this paper. Targeting at learning from unlabeled data with inherent long-tailed distributions, the goal of FASSL is to produce discriminative feature representations for downstream classification tasks. In FASSL, we first learn frequency-aware prototypes, reflecting the associated long-tailed distribution. Particularly focusing on rare-class samples, the relationships between image data and the derived prototypes are further exploited with the introduced self-supervised learning scheme. Experiments on long-tailed image datasets quantitatively and qualitatively verify the effectiveness of our learning scheme.

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used in time series analysis. However, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, for time series remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. Motivated by this, we raise a critical and practical research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? To answer this, we propose VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to evaluate MLLMs in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). Our approach transforms time series numerical data into the image format and feed these images into various MLLMs, including proprietary models (GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5) and open-source models (LLaVA-NeXT and Qwen2-VL), each with one larger and one smaller variant. In total, VisualTimeAnomaly contains 12.4k time series images spanning 3 scenarios and 3 anomaly granularities with 9 anomaly types across 8 MLLMs. Starting with the univariate case (point- and range-wise anomalies), we extend our evaluation to more practical scenarios, including multivariate and irregular time series scenarios, and variate-wise anomalies. Our study reveals several key insights: 1) MLLMs detect range- and variate-wise anomalies more effectively than point-wise anomalies. 2) MLLMs are highly robust to irregular time series, even with 25% of the data missing. 3) Open-source MLLMs perform comparably to proprietary models in TSAD. While open-source MLLMs excel on univariate time series, proprietary MLLMs demonstrate superior effectiveness on multivariate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to comprehensively investigate MLLMs for TSAD, particularly for multivariate and irregular time series scenarios. We release our dataset and code at https://github.com/mllm-ts/VisualTimeAnomaly to support future research.

Spectral analysis provides one of the most effective paradigms for information-preserving dimensionality reduction, as simple descriptions of naturally occurring signals are often obtained via few terms of periodic basis functions. In this work, we study deep neural networks designed to harness the structure in frequency domain for efficient learning of long-range correlations in space or time: frequency-domain models (FDMs). Existing FDMs are based on complex-valued transforms i.e. Fourier Transforms (FT), and layers that perform computation on the spectrum and input data separately. This design introduces considerable computational overhead: for each layer, a forward and inverse FT. Instead, this work introduces a blueprint for frequency domain learning through a single transform: transform once (T1). To enable efficient, direct learning in the frequency domain we derive a variance-preserving weight initialization scheme and investigate methods for frequency selection in reduced-order FDMs. Our results noticeably streamline the design process of FDMs, pruning redundant transforms, and leading to speedups of 3x to 10x that increase with data resolution and model size. We perform extensive experiments on learning the solution operator of spatio-temporal dynamics, including incompressible Navier-Stokes, turbulent flows around airfoils and high-resolution video of smoke. T1 models improve on the test performance of FDMs while requiring significantly less computation (5 hours instead of 32 for our large-scale experiment), with over 20% reduction in average predictive error across tasks.

Despite the recent visually-pleasing results achieved, the massive computational cost has been a long-standing flaw for diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs), which, in turn, greatly limits their applications on resource-limited platforms. Prior methods towards efficient DPM, however, have largely focused on accelerating the testing yet overlooked their huge complexity and sizes. In this paper, we make a dedicated attempt to lighten DPM while striving to preserve its favourable performance. We start by training a small-sized latent diffusion model (LDM) from scratch, but observe a significant fidelity drop in the synthetic images. Through a thorough assessment, we find that DPM is intrinsically biased against high-frequency generation, and learns to recover different frequency components at different time-steps. These properties make compact networks unable to represent frequency dynamics with accurate high-frequency estimation. Towards this end, we introduce a customized design for slim DPM, which we term as Spectral Diffusion (SD), for light-weight image synthesis. SD incorporates wavelet gating in its architecture to enable frequency dynamic feature extraction at every reverse steps, and conducts spectrum-aware distillation to promote high-frequency recovery by inverse weighting the objective based on spectrum magni tudes. Experimental results demonstrate that, SD achieves 8-18x computational complexity reduction as compared to the latent diffusion models on a series of conditional and unconditional image generation tasks while retaining competitive image fidelity.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

We propose a learnable content adaptive front end for audio signal processing. Before the modern advent of deep learning, we used fixed representation non-learnable front-ends like spectrogram or mel-spectrogram with/without neural architectures. With convolutional architectures supporting various applications such as ASR and acoustic scene understanding, a shift to a learnable front ends occurred in which both the type of basis functions and the weight were learned from scratch and optimized for the particular task of interest. With the shift to transformer-based architectures with no convolutional blocks present, a linear layer projects small waveform patches onto a small latent dimension before feeding them to a transformer architecture. In this work, we propose a way of computing a content-adaptive learnable time-frequency representation. We pass each audio signal through a bank of convolutional filters, each giving a fixed-dimensional vector. It is akin to learning a bank of finite impulse-response filterbanks and passing the input signal through the optimum filter bank depending on the content of the input signal. A content-adaptive learnable time-frequency representation may be more broadly applicable, beyond the experiments in this paper.

Using the supersymmetric method of random matrix theory within the Heidelberg approach framework we provide statistical description of stationary intensity sampled in locations inside an open wave-chaotic cavity, assuming that the time-reversal invariance inside the cavity is fully broken. In particular, we show that when incoming waves are fed via a finite number M of open channels the probability density {cal P}(I) for the single-point intensity I decays as a power law for large intensities: {cal P}(I)sim I^{-(M+2)}, provided there is no internal losses. This behaviour is in marked difference with the Rayleigh law {cal P}(I)sim exp(-I/I) which turns out to be valid only in the limit Mto infty. We also find the joint probability density of intensities I_1, ldots, I_L in L>1 observation points, and then extract the corresponding statistics for the maximal intensity in the observation pattern. For Lto infty the resulting limiting extreme value statistics (EVS) turns out to be different from the classical EVS distributions.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

We propose the Fourier Adaptive Lite Diffusion Architecture (FALDA), a novel probabilistic framework for time series forecasting. First, we introduce the Diffusion Model for Residual Regression (DMRR) framework, which unifies diffusion-based probabilistic regression methods. Within this framework, FALDA leverages Fourier-based decomposition to incorporate a component-specific architecture, enabling tailored modeling of individual temporal components. A conditional diffusion model is utilized to estimate the future noise term, while our proposed lightweight denoiser, DEMA (Decomposition MLP with AdaLN), conditions on the historical noise term to enhance denoising performance. Through mathematical analysis and empirical validation, we demonstrate that FALDA effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty, allowing probabilistic learning to primarily focus on aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on six real-world benchmarks demonstrate that FALDA consistently outperforms existing probabilistic forecasting approaches across most datasets for long-term time series forecasting while achieving enhanced computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. Notably, FALDA also achieves superior overall performance compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) point forecasting approaches, with improvements of up to 9%.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

In this study, we examine the efficacy of post-hoc local attribution methods in identifying features with predictive power from irrelevant ones in domains characterized by a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), a common scenario in real-world machine learning applications. We developed synthetic datasets encompassing symbolic functional, image, and audio data, incorporating a benchmark on the {\it (Model \(\times\) Attribution\(\times\) Noise Condition)} triplet. By rigorously testing various classic models trained from scratch, we gained valuable insights into the performance of these attribution methods in multiple conditions. Based on these findings, we introduce a novel extension to the notable recursive feature elimination (RFE) algorithm, enhancing its applicability for neural networks. Our experiments highlight its strengths in prediction and feature selection, alongside limitations in scalability. Further details and additional minor findings are included in the appendix, with extensive discussions. The codes and resources are available at https://github.com/geshijoker/ChaosMining/{URL}.

Deep neural networks, including transformers and convolutional neural networks, have significantly improved multivariate time series classification (MTSC). However, these methods often rely on supervised learning, which does not fully account for the sparsity and locality of patterns in time series data (e.g., diseases-related anomalous points in ECG). To address this challenge, we formally reformulate MTSC as a weakly supervised problem, introducing a novel multiple-instance learning (MIL) framework for better localization of patterns of interest and modeling time dependencies within time series. Our novel approach, TimeMIL, formulates the temporal correlation and ordering within a time-aware MIL pooling, leveraging a tokenized transformer with a specialized learnable wavelet positional token. The proposed method surpassed 26 recent state-of-the-art methods, underscoring the effectiveness of the weakly supervised TimeMIL in MTSC. The code will be available at https://github.com/xiwenc1/TimeMIL.

Electrocardiograms (ECGs), a medical monitoring technology recording cardiac activity, are widely used for diagnosing cardiac arrhythmia. The diagnosis is based on the analysis of the deformation of the signal shapes due to irregular heart rates associated with heart diseases. Due to the infeasibility of manual examination of large volumes of ECG data, this paper aims to propose an automated AI based system for ECG-based arrhythmia classification. To this front, a deep learning based solution has been proposed for ECG-based arrhythmia classification. Twelve lead electrocardiograms (ECG) of length 10 sec from 45, 152 individuals from Shaoxing People's Hospital (SPH) dataset from PhysioNet with four different types of arrhythmias were used. The sampling frequency utilized was 500 Hz. Median filtering was used to preprocess the ECG signals. For every 1 sec of ECG signal, the time-frequency (TF) scalogram was estimated and stacked row wise to obtain a single image from 12 channels, resulting in 10 stacked TF scalograms for each ECG signal. These stacked TF scalograms are fed to the pretrained convolutional neural network (CNN), 1D CNN, and 1D CNN-LSTM (Long short-term memory) models, for arrhythmia classification. The fine-tuned CNN models obtained the best test accuracy of about 98% followed by 95% test accuracy by basic CNN-LSTM in arrhythmia classification.

Collections of probability distributions arise in a variety of applications ranging from user activity pattern analysis to brain connectomics. In practice these distributions can be defined over diverse domain types including finite intervals, circles, cylinders, spheres, other manifolds, and graphs. This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences between two collections of distributions over such general domains. To this end, we propose the intrinsic slicing construction that yields a novel class of Wasserstein distances on manifolds and graphs. These distances are Hilbert embeddable, allowing us to reduce the distribution collection comparison problem to a more familiar mean testing problem in a Hilbert space. We provide two testing procedures one based on resampling and another on combining p-values from coordinate-wise tests. Our experiments in various synthetic and real data settings show that the resulting tests are powerful and the p-values are well-calibrated.

Recent advancements in the collection and analysis of sequential educational data have brought time series analysis to a pivotal position in educational research, highlighting its essential role in facilitating data-driven decision-making. However, there is a lack of comprehensive summaries that consolidate these advancements. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to provide a comprehensive review of time series analysis techniques specifically within the educational context. We begin by exploring the landscape of educational data analytics, categorizing various data sources and types relevant to education. We then review four prominent time series methods-forecasting, classification, clustering, and anomaly detection-illustrating their specific application points in educational settings. Subsequently, we present a range of educational scenarios and applications, focusing on how these methods are employed to address diverse educational tasks, which highlights the practical integration of multiple time series methods to solve complex educational problems. Finally, we conclude with a discussion on future directions, including personalized learning analytics, multimodal data fusion, and the role of large language models (LLMs) in educational time series. The contributions of this paper include a detailed taxonomy of educational data, a synthesis of time series techniques with specific educational applications, and a forward-looking perspective on emerging trends and future research opportunities in educational analysis. The related papers and resources are available and regularly updated at the project page.

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

The goal of this paper is to generate realistic audio with a lightweight and fast diffusion-based vocoder, named FreGrad. Our framework consists of the following three key components: (1) We employ discrete wavelet transform that decomposes a complicated waveform into sub-band wavelets, which helps FreGrad to operate on a simple and concise feature space, (2) We design a frequency-aware dilated convolution that elevates frequency awareness, resulting in generating speech with accurate frequency information, and (3) We introduce a bag of tricks that boosts the generation quality of the proposed model. In our experiments, FreGrad achieves 3.7 times faster training time and 2.2 times faster inference speed compared to our baseline while reducing the model size by 0.6 times (only 1.78M parameters) without sacrificing the output quality. Audio samples are available at: https://mm.kaist.ac.kr/projects/FreGrad.

We propose a new approach for propagating stable probability distributions through neural networks. Our method is based on local linearization, which we show to be an optimal approximation in terms of total variation distance for the ReLU non-linearity. This allows propagating Gaussian and Cauchy input uncertainties through neural networks to quantify their output uncertainties. To demonstrate the utility of propagating distributions, we apply the proposed method to predicting calibrated confidence intervals and selective prediction on out-of-distribution data. The results demonstrate a broad applicability of propagating distributions and show the advantages of our method over other approaches such as moment matching.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) based vocoders are superior in inference speed and synthesis quality when reconstructing an audible waveform from an acoustic representation. This study focuses on improving the discriminator to promote GAN-based vocoders. Most existing time-frequency-representation-based discriminators are rooted in Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT), whose time-frequency resolution in a spectrogram is fixed, making it incompatible with signals like singing voices that require flexible attention for different frequency bands. Motivated by that, our study utilizes the Constant-Q Transform (CQT), which owns dynamic resolution among frequencies, contributing to a better modeling ability in pitch accuracy and harmonic tracking. Specifically, we propose a Multi-Scale Sub-Band CQT (MS-SB-CQT) Discriminator, which operates on the CQT spectrogram at multiple scales and performs sub-band processing according to different octaves. Experiments conducted on both speech and singing voices confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method. Moreover, we also verified that the CQT-based and the STFT-based discriminators could be complementary under joint training. Specifically, enhanced by the proposed MS-SB-CQT and the existing MS-STFT Discriminators, the MOS of HiFi-GAN can be boosted from 3.27 to 3.87 for seen singers and from 3.40 to 3.78 for unseen singers.

The present work investigates two properties of level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process X(t) with autocorrelation function R_X(tau). We show firstly that if R_X(tau) admits finite second and fourth derivatives at the origin, the length of up-excursions above a large negative level -gamma is asymptotically exponential as -gamma to -infty. Secondly, assuming that R_X(tau) admits a finite second derivative at the origin and some defined properties, we derive the mean number of crossings as well as the length of successive excursions above two subsequent large levels. The asymptotic results are shown to be effective even for moderate values of crossing level. An application of the developed results is proposed to derive the probability of successive excursions above adjacent levels during a time window.

Diffusion models have shown promising ability in generating high-quality time series (TS) data. Despite the initial success, existing works mostly focus on the authenticity of data at the individual level, but pay less attention to preserving the population-level properties on the entire dataset. Such population-level properties include value distributions for each dimension and distributions of certain functional dependencies (e.g., cross-correlation, CC) between different dimensions. For instance, when generating house energy consumption TS data, the value distributions of the outside temperature and the kitchen temperature should be preserved, as well as the distribution of CC between them. Preserving such TS population-level properties is critical in maintaining the statistical insights of the datasets, mitigating model bias, and augmenting downstream tasks like TS prediction. Yet, it is often overlooked by existing models. Hence, data generated by existing models often bear distribution shifts from the original data. We propose Population-aware Diffusion for Time Series (PaD-TS), a new TS generation model that better preserves the population-level properties. The key novelties of PaD-TS include 1) a new training method explicitly incorporating TS population-level property preservation, and 2) a new dual-channel encoder model architecture that better captures the TS data structure. Empirical results in major benchmark datasets show that PaD-TS can improve the average CC distribution shift score between real and synthetic data by 5.9x while maintaining a performance comparable to state-of-the-art models on individual-level authenticity.

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

Sound source localization (SSL) determines the position of sound sources using multi-channel audio data. It is commonly used to improve speech enhancement and separation. Extracting spatial features is crucial for SSL, especially in challenging acoustic environments. Recently, a novel structure referred to as Mamba demonstrated notable performance across various sequence-based modalities. This study introduces the Mamba for SSL tasks. We consider the Mamba-based model to analyze spatial features from speech signals by fusing both time and frequency features, and we develop an SSL system called TF-Mamba. This system integrates time and frequency fusion, with Bidirectional Mamba managing both time-wise and frequency-wise processing. We conduct the experiments on the simulated and real datasets. Experiments show that TF-Mamba significantly outperforms other advanced methods. The code will be publicly released in due course.

Converting time domain waveforms to frequency domain spectrograms is typically considered to be a prepossessing step done before model training. This approach, however, has several drawbacks. First, it takes a lot of hard disk space to store different frequency domain representations. This is especially true during the model development and tuning process, when exploring various types of spectrograms for optimal performance. Second, if another dataset is used, one must process all the audio clips again before the network can be retrained. In this paper, we integrate the time domain to frequency domain conversion as part of the model structure, and propose a neural network based toolbox, nnAudio, which leverages 1D convolutional neural networks to perform time domain to frequency domain conversion during feed-forward. It allows on-the-fly spectrogram generation without the need to store any spectrograms on the disk. This approach also allows back-propagation on the waveforms-to-spectrograms transformation layer, which implies that this transformation process can be made trainable, and hence further optimized by gradient descent. nnAudio reduces the waveforms-to-spectrograms conversion time for 1,770 waveforms (from the MAPS dataset) from 10.64 seconds with librosa to only 0.001 seconds for Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT), 18.3 seconds to 0.015 seconds for Mel spectrogram, 103.4 seconds to 0.258 for constant-Q transform (CQT), when using GPU on our DGX work station with CPU: Intel(R) Xeon(R) CPU E5-2698 v4 @ 2.20GHz Tesla v100 32Gb GPUs. (Only 1 GPU is being used for all the experiments.) We also further optimize the existing CQT algorithm, so that the CQT spectrogram can be obtained without aliasing in a much faster computation time (from 0.258 seconds to only 0.001 seconds).

Text-to-speech (TTS) methods have shown promising results in voice cloning, but they require a large number of labeled text-speech pairs. Minimally-supervised speech synthesis decouples TTS by combining two types of discrete speech representations(semantic \& acoustic) and using two sequence-to-sequence tasks to enable training with minimal supervision. However, existing methods suffer from information redundancy and dimension explosion in semantic representation, and high-frequency waveform distortion in discrete acoustic representation. Autoregressive frameworks exhibit typical instability and uncontrollability issues. And non-autoregressive frameworks suffer from prosodic averaging caused by duration prediction models. To address these issues, we propose a minimally-supervised high-fidelity speech synthesis method, where all modules are constructed based on the diffusion models. The non-autoregressive framework enhances controllability, and the duration diffusion model enables diversified prosodic expression. Contrastive Token-Acoustic Pretraining (CTAP) is used as an intermediate semantic representation to solve the problems of information redundancy and dimension explosion in existing semantic coding methods. Mel-spectrogram is used as the acoustic representation. Both semantic and acoustic representations are predicted by continuous variable regression tasks to solve the problem of high-frequency fine-grained waveform distortion. Experimental results show that our proposed method outperforms the baseline method. We provide audio samples on our website.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Non-linear activation functions are crucial in Convolutional Neural Networks. However, until now they have not been well described in the frequency domain. In this work, we study the spectral behavior of ReLU, a popular activation function. We use the ReLU's Taylor expansion to derive its frequency domain behavior. We demonstrate that ReLU introduces higher frequency oscillations in the signal and a constant DC component. Furthermore, we investigate the importance of this DC component, where we demonstrate that it helps the model extract meaningful features related to the input frequency content. We accompany our theoretical derivations with experiments and real-world examples. First, we numerically validate our frequency response model. Then we observe ReLU's spectral behavior on two example models and a real-world one. Finally, we experimentally investigate the role of the DC component introduced by ReLU in the CNN's representations. Our results indicate that the DC helps to converge to a weight configuration that is close to the initial random weights.

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

In this work, we study the black hole light echoes in terms of the two-photon autocorrelation and explore their connection with the quasinormal modes. It is shown that the above time-domain phenomenon can be analyzed by utilizing the well-known frequency-domain relations between the quasinormal modes and characteristic parameters of null geodesics. We found that the time-domain correlator, obtained by the inverse Fourier transform, naturally acquires the echo feature, which can be attributed to a collective effect of the asymptotic poles through a weighted summation of the squared modulus of the relevant Green's functions. Specifically, the contour integral leads to a summation taking over both the overtone index and angular momentum. Moreover, the dominant contributions to the light echoes are from those in the eikonal limit, consistent with the existing findings using the geometric-optics arguments. For the Schwarzschild black holes, we demonstrate the results numerically by considering a transient spherical light source. Also, for the Kerr spacetimes, we point out a potential difference between the resulting light echoes using the geometric-optics approach and those obtained by the black hole perturbation theory. Possible astrophysical implications of the present study are addressed.

This paper presents TS2Vec, a universal framework for learning representations of time series in an arbitrary semantic level. Unlike existing methods, TS2Vec performs contrastive learning in a hierarchical way over augmented context views, which enables a robust contextual representation for each timestamp. Furthermore, to obtain the representation of an arbitrary sub-sequence in the time series, we can apply a simple aggregation over the representations of corresponding timestamps. We conduct extensive experiments on time series classification tasks to evaluate the quality of time series representations. As a result, TS2Vec achieves significant improvement over existing SOTAs of unsupervised time series representation on 125 UCR datasets and 29 UEA datasets. The learned timestamp-level representations also achieve superior results in time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks. A linear regression trained on top of the learned representations outperforms previous SOTAs of time series forecasting. Furthermore, we present a simple way to apply the learned representations for unsupervised anomaly detection, which establishes SOTA results in the literature. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/yuezhihan/ts2vec.

Modern-day time-domain photometric surveys collect a lot of observations of various astronomical objects and the coming era of large-scale surveys will provide even more information on their properties. Spectroscopic follow-ups are especially crucial for transients such as supernovae and most of these objects have not been subject to such studies. }{Flux time series are actively used as an affordable alternative for photometric classification and characterization, for instance, peak identifications and luminosity decline estimations. However, the collected time series are multidimensional and irregularly sampled, while also containing outliers and without any well-defined systematic uncertainties. This paper presents a search for the best-performing methods to approximate the observed light curves over time and wavelength for the purpose of generating time series with regular time steps in each passband.}{We examined several light curve approximation methods based on neural networks such as multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian neural networks, and normalizing flows to approximate observations of a single light curve. Test datasets include simulated PLAsTiCC and real Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves of transients.}{The tests demonstrate that even just a few observations are enough to fit the networks and improve the quality of approximation, compared to state-of-the-art models. The methods described in this work have a low computational complexity and are significantly faster than Gaussian processes. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of the approximation techniques from the perspective of further peak identification and transients classification. The study results have been released in an open and user-friendly Fulu Python library available on GitHub for the scientific community.

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series.

The advent of universal time series forecasting models has revolutionized zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains, yet the critical role of data diversity in training these models remains underexplored. Existing large-scale time series datasets often suffer from inherent biases and imbalanced distributions, leading to suboptimal model performance and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce BLAST, a novel pre-training corpus designed to enhance data diversity through a balanced sampling strategy. First, BLAST incorporates 321 billion observations from publicly available datasets and employs a comprehensive suite of statistical metrics to characterize time series patterns. Then, to facilitate pattern-oriented sampling, the data is implicitly clustered using grid-based partitioning. Furthermore, by integrating grid sampling and grid mixup techniques, BLAST ensures a balanced and representative coverage of diverse patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that models pre-trained on BLAST achieve state-of-the-art performance with a fraction of the computational resources and training tokens required by existing methods. Our findings highlight the pivotal role of data diversity in improving both training efficiency and model performance for the universal forecasting task.

Permutation Entropy and statistiCal Complexity Analysis for astRophYsics (PECCARY) is a computationally inexpensive, statistical method by which any time-series can be characterized as predominantly regular, complex, or stochastic. Elements of the PECCARY method have been used in a variety of physical, biological, economic, and mathematical scenarios, but have not yet gained traction in the astrophysical community. This study introduces the PECCARY technique with the specific aims to motivate its use in and optimize it for the analysis of astrophysical orbital systems. PECCARY works by decomposing a time-dependent measure, such as the x-coordinate or orbital angular momentum time-series, into ordinal patterns. Due to its unique approach and statistical nature, PECCARY is well-suited for detecting preferred and forbidden patterns (a signature of chaos), even when the chaotic behavior is short-lived or when working with a relatively short duration time-series or small sets of time-series data. A variety of examples are used to demonstrate the capabilities of PECCARY. These include mathematical examples (sine waves, varieties of noise, sums of sine waves, well-known chaotic functions), a double pendulum system, and astrophysical tracer particle simulations with potentials of varying intricacies. Since the adopted timescale used to diagnose a given time-series can affect the outcome, a method is presented to identify an ideal sampling scheme, constrained by the overall duration and the natural timescale of the system. The accompanying PECCARY Python package and its usage are discussed.

Machine learning based solvers have garnered much attention in physical simulation and scientific computing, with a prominent example, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). However, PINNs often struggle to solve high-frequency and multi-scale PDEs, which can be due to spectral bias during neural network training. To address this problem, we resort to the Gaussian process (GP) framework. To flexibly capture the dominant frequencies, we model the power spectrum of the PDE solution with a student t mixture or Gaussian mixture. We apply the inverse Fourier transform to obtain the covariance function (by Wiener-Khinchin theorem). The covariance derived from the Gaussian mixture spectrum corresponds to the known spectral mixture kernel. Next, we estimate the mixture weights in the log domain, which we show is equivalent to placing a Jeffreys prior. It automatically induces sparsity, prunes excessive frequencies, and adjusts the remaining toward the ground truth. Third, to enable efficient and scalable computation on massive collocation points, which are critical to capture high frequencies, we place the collocation points on a grid, and multiply our covariance function at each input dimension. We use the GP conditional mean to predict the solution and its derivatives so as to fit the boundary condition and the equation itself. As a result, we can derive a Kronecker product structure in the covariance matrix. We use Kronecker product properties and multilinear algebra to promote computational efficiency and scalability, without low-rank approximations. We show the advantage of our method in systematic experiments. The code is released at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/Gaussian-Process-Slover-for-High-Freq-PDE.

Voice activity detection (VAD) is an important pre-processing step for speech technology applications. The task consists of deriving segment boundaries of audio signals which contain voicing information. In recent years, it has been shown that voice source and vocal tract system information can be extracted using zero-frequency filtering (ZFF) without making any explicit model assumptions about the speech signal. This paper investigates the potential of zero-frequency filtering for jointly modeling voice source and vocal tract system information, and proposes two approaches for VAD. The first approach demarcates voiced regions using a composite signal composed of different zero-frequency filtered signals. The second approach feeds the composite signal as input to the rVAD algorithm. These approaches are compared with other supervised and unsupervised VAD methods in the literature, and are evaluated on the Aurora-2 database, across a range of SNRs (20 to -5 dB). Our studies show that the proposed ZFF-based methods perform comparable to state-of-art VAD methods and are more invariant to added degradation and different channel characteristics.

While electroencephalogram (EEG) has been a crucial tool for monitoring the brain and diagnosing neurological disorders (e.g., epilepsy), learning meaningful representations from raw EEG signals remains challenging due to limited annotations and high signal variability. Recently, EEG foundation models (FMs) have shown promising potential by adopting transformer architectures and self-supervised pre-training methods from large language models (e.g., masked prediction) to learn representations from diverse EEG data, followed by fine-tuning on specific EEG tasks. Nonetheless, these large models often incurred high computational costs during both training and inference, with only marginal performance improvements as model size increases. In this work, we proposed EEG representation learning framework building upon Generative Diffusion Model (EEGDM). Specifically, we developed structured state-space model for diffusion pretraining (SSMDP) to better capture the temporal dynamics of EEG signals and trained the architecture using a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model. The resulting latent EEG representations were then used for downstream classification tasks via our proposed latent fusion transformer (LFT). To evaluate our method, we used the multi-event Temple University EEG Event Corpus and compared EEGDM with current state-of-the-art approaches, including EEG FMs. Empirical results showed that our method outperformed existing methods while being approximately 19x more lightweight. These findings suggested that EEGDM offered a promising alternative to current FMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/jhpuah/EEGDM.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Multi-speaker localization and tracking using microphone array recording is of importance in a wide range of applications. One of the challenges with multi-speaker tracking is to associate direction estimates with the correct speaker. Most existing association approaches rely on spatial or spectral information alone, leading to performance degradation when one of these information channels is partially known or missing. This paper studies a joint probability data association (JPDA)-based method that facilitates association based on joint spatial-spectral information. This is achieved by integrating speaker time-frequency (TF) masks, estimated based on spectral information, in the association probabilities calculation. An experimental study that tested the proposed method on recordings from the LOCATA challenge demonstrates the enhanced performance obtained by using joint spatial-spectral information in the association.

Training diffusion models for audiovisual sequences allows for a range of generation tasks by learning conditional distributions of various input-output combinations of the two modalities. Nevertheless, this strategy often requires training a separate model for each task which is expensive. Here, we propose a novel training approach to effectively learn arbitrary conditional distributions in the audiovisual space.Our key contribution lies in how we parameterize the diffusion timestep in the forward diffusion process. Instead of the standard fixed diffusion timestep, we propose applying variable diffusion timesteps across the temporal dimension and across modalities of the inputs. This formulation offers flexibility to introduce variable noise levels for various portions of the input, hence the term mixture of noise levels. We propose a transformer-based audiovisual latent diffusion model and show that it can be trained in a task-agnostic fashion using our approach to enable a variety of audiovisual generation tasks at inference time. Experiments demonstrate the versatility of our method in tackling cross-modal and multimodal interpolation tasks in the audiovisual space. Notably, our proposed approach surpasses baselines in generating temporally and perceptually consistent samples conditioned on the input. Project page: avdit2024.github.io

Missing values, irregularly collected samples, and multi-resolution signals commonly occur in multivariate time series data, making predictive tasks difficult. These challenges are especially prevalent in the healthcare domain, where patients' vital signs and electronic records are collected at different frequencies and have occasionally missing information due to the imperfections in equipment or patient circumstances. Researchers have handled each of these issues differently, often handling missing data through mean value imputation and then using sequence models over the multivariate signals while ignoring the different resolution of signals. We propose a unified model named Multi-resolution Flexible Irregular Time series Network (Multi-FIT). The building block for Multi-FIT is the FIT network. The FIT network creates an informative dense representation at each time step using signal information such as last observed value, time difference since the last observed time stamp and overall mean for the signal. Vertical FIT (FIT-V) is a variant of FIT which also models the relationship between different temporal signals while creating the informative dense representations for the signal. The multi-FIT model uses multiple FIT networks for sets of signals with different resolutions, further facilitating the construction of flexible representations. Our model has three main contributions: a.) it does not impute values but rather creates informative representations to provide flexibility to the model for creating task-specific representations b.) it models the relationship between different signals in the form of support signals c.) it models different resolutions in parallel before merging them for the final prediction task. The FIT, FIT-V and Multi-FIT networks improve upon the state-of-the-art models for three predictive tasks, including the forecasting of patient survival.

In this paper we explore the possibility of maximizing the information represented in spectrograms by making the spectrogram basis functions trainable. We experiment with two different tasks, namely keyword spotting (KWS) and automatic speech recognition (ASR). For most neural network models, the architecture and hyperparameters are typically fine-tuned and optimized in experiments. Input features, however, are often treated as fixed. In the case of audio, signals can be mainly expressed in two main ways: raw waveforms (time-domain) or spectrograms (time-frequency-domain). In addition, different spectrogram types are often used and tailored to fit different applications. In our experiments, we allow for this tailoring directly as part of the network. Our experimental results show that using trainable basis functions can boost the accuracy of Keyword Spotting (KWS) by 14.2 percentage points, and lower the Phone Error Rate (PER) by 9.5 percentage points. Although models using trainable basis functions become less effective as the model complexity increases, the trained filter shapes could still provide us with insights on which frequency bins are important for that specific task. From our experiments, we can conclude that trainable basis functions are a useful tool to boost the performance when the model complexity is limited.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Multivariate time series classification is a crucial task in data mining, attracting growing research interest due to its broad applications. While many existing methods focus on discovering discriminative patterns in time series, real-world data does not always present such patterns, and sometimes raw numerical values can also serve as discriminative features. Additionally, the recent success of Transformer models has inspired many studies. However, when applying to time series classification, the self-attention mechanisms in Transformer models could introduce classification-irrelevant features, thereby compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, VSFormer, that incorporates both discriminative patterns (shape) and numerical information (value). In addition, we extract class-specific prior information derived from supervised information to enrich the positional encoding and provide classification-oriented self-attention learning, thereby enhancing its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on all 30 UEA archived datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to SOTA models. Through ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved encoding layer and the proposed self-attention mechanism. Finally, We provide a case study on a real-world time series dataset without discriminative patterns to interpret our model.

Nowadays, with the rising number of sensors in sectors such as healthcare and industry, the problem of multivariate time series classification (MTSC) is getting increasingly relevant and is a prime target for machine and deep learning approaches. Their expanding adoption in real-world environments is causing a shift in focus from the pursuit of ever-higher prediction accuracy with complex models towards practical, deployable solutions that balance accuracy and parameters such as prediction speed. An MTSC model that has attracted attention recently is ROCKET, based on random convolutional kernels, both because of its very fast training process and its state-of-the-art accuracy. However, the large number of features it utilizes may be detrimental to inference time. Examining its theoretical background and limitations enables us to address potential drawbacks and present LightWaveS: a framework for accurate MTSC, which is fast both during training and inference. Specifically, utilizing wavelet scattering transformation and distributed feature selection, we manage to create a solution that employs just 2.5% of the ROCKET features, while achieving accuracy comparable to recent MTSC models. LightWaveS also scales well across multiple compute nodes and with the number of input channels during training. In addition, it can significantly reduce the input size and provide insight to an MTSC problem by keeping only the most useful channels. We present three versions of our algorithm and their results on distributed training time and scalability, accuracy, and inference speedup. We show that we achieve speedup ranging from 9x to 53x compared to ROCKET during inference on an edge device, on datasets with comparable accuracy.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Vibration-based condition monitoring systems are receiving increasing attention due to their ability to accurately identify different conditions by capturing dynamic features over a broad frequency range. However, there is little research on clustering approaches in vibration data and the resulting solutions are often optimized for a single data set. In this work, we present an extensive comparison of the clustering algorithms K-means clustering, OPTICS, and Gaussian mixture model clustering (GMM) applied to statistical features extracted from the time and frequency domains of vibration data sets. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of feature combinations, feature selection using principal component analysis (PCA), and the specified number of clusters on the performance of the clustering algorithms. We conducted this comparison in terms of a grid search using three different benchmark data sets. Our work showed that averaging (Mean, Median) and variance-based features (Standard Deviation, Interquartile Range) performed significantly better than shape-based features (Skewness, Kurtosis). In addition, K-means outperformed GMM slightly for these data sets, whereas OPTICS performed significantly worse. We were also able to show that feature combinations as well as PCA feature selection did not result in any significant performance improvements. With an increase in the specified number of clusters, clustering algorithms performed better, although there were some specific algorithmic restrictions.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

We present Symphony, an E(3)-equivariant autoregressive generative model for 3D molecular geometries that iteratively builds a molecule from molecular fragments. Existing autoregressive models such as G-SchNet and G-SphereNet for molecules utilize rotationally invariant features to respect the 3D symmetries of molecules. In contrast, Symphony uses message-passing with higher-degree E(3)-equivariant features. This allows a novel representation of probability distributions via spherical harmonic signals to efficiently model the 3D geometry of molecules. We show that Symphony is able to accurately generate small molecules from the QM9 dataset, outperforming existing autoregressive models and approaching the performance of diffusion models.

Despite the remarkable success achieved by neural networks, particularly those represented by MLP and Transformer, we reveal that they exhibit potential flaws in the modeling and reasoning of periodicity, i.e., they tend to memorize the periodic data rather than genuinely understanding the underlying principles of periodicity. However, periodicity is a crucial trait in various forms of reasoning and generalization, underpinning predictability across natural and engineered systems through recurring patterns in observations. In this paper, we propose FAN, a novel network architecture based on Fourier Analysis, which empowers the ability to efficiently model and reason about periodic phenomena. By introducing Fourier Series, the periodicity is naturally integrated into the structure and computational processes of the neural network, thus achieving a more accurate expression and prediction of periodic patterns. As a promising substitute to multi-layer perceptron (MLP), FAN can seamlessly replace MLP in various models with fewer parameters and FLOPs. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of FAN in modeling and reasoning about periodic functions, and the superiority and generalizability of FAN across a range of real-world tasks, including symbolic formula representation, time series forecasting, and language modeling.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Recent advances in data collection technology, accompanied by the ever-rising volume and velocity of streaming data, underscore the vital need for time series analytics. In this regard, time-series anomaly detection has been an important activity, entailing various applications in fields such as cyber security, financial markets, law enforcement, and health care. While traditional literature on anomaly detection is centered on statistical measures, the increasing number of machine learning algorithms in recent years call for a structured, general characterization of the research methods for time-series anomaly detection. This survey groups and summarizes anomaly detection existing solutions under a process-centric taxonomy in the time series context. In addition to giving an original categorization of anomaly detection methods, we also perform a meta-analysis of the literature and outline general trends in time-series anomaly detection research.

In recent years, diffusion based methods have emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling. Although discrete diffusion for natural language processing has been explored to a lesser extent, it shows promise for tasks requiring iterative denoising of token based data. In standard approaches to text generation, transformers dominate, but their reliance on self attention often incurs high computational costs. This paper introduces a fully diffusion driven discrete text generation model built without any transformer or large convolution modules. Instead, the model integrates structured state space dynamics in the time domain with a novel Complex Fourier Multi Layer Perceptron module that operates in the frequency domain. The forward noising process randomly samples the vocabulary to replace tokens with a controlled probability, while the learned reverse model systematically reverts corrupted sequences toward their original states. By composing local state space updates with global Fourier based mixing, the approach effectively captures both short and long range dependencies.

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Deep learning has become an area of interest in most scientific areas, including physical sciences. Modern networks apply real-valued transformations on the data. Particularly, convolutions in convolutional neural networks discard phase information entirely. Many deterministic signals, such as seismic data or electrical signals, contain significant information in the phase of the signal. We explore complex-valued deep convolutional networks to leverage non-linear feature maps. Seismic data commonly has a lowcut filter applied, to attenuate noise from ocean waves and similar long wavelength contributions. Discarding the phase information leads to low-frequency aliasing analogous to the Nyquist-Shannon theorem for high frequencies. In non-stationary data, the phase content can stabilize training and improve the generalizability of neural networks. While it has been shown that phase content can be restored in deep neural networks, we show how including phase information in feature maps improves both training and inference from deterministic physical data. Furthermore, we show that the reduction of parameters in a complex network outperforms larger real-valued networks.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

This paper presents a neural vocoder based on a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) incorporating explicit periodic signals as auxiliary conditioning signals. Recently, DDPM-based neural vocoders have gained prominence as non-autoregressive models that can generate high-quality waveforms. The neural vocoders based on DDPM have the advantage of training with a simple time-domain loss. In practical applications, such as singing voice synthesis, there is a demand for neural vocoders to generate high-fidelity speech waveforms with flexible pitch control. However, conventional DDPM-based neural vocoders struggle to generate speech waveforms under such conditions. Our proposed model aims to accurately capture the periodic structure of speech waveforms by incorporating explicit periodic signals. Experimental results show that our model improves sound quality and provides better pitch control than conventional DDPM-based neural vocoders.

Most generative models of audio directly generate samples in one of two domains: time or frequency. While sufficient to express any signal, these representations are inefficient, as they do not utilize existing knowledge of how sound is generated and perceived. A third approach (vocoders/synthesizers) successfully incorporates strong domain knowledge of signal processing and perception, but has been less actively researched due to limited expressivity and difficulty integrating with modern auto-differentiation-based machine learning methods. In this paper, we introduce the Differentiable Digital Signal Processing (DDSP) library, which enables direct integration of classic signal processing elements with deep learning methods. Focusing on audio synthesis, we achieve high-fidelity generation without the need for large autoregressive models or adversarial losses, demonstrating that DDSP enables utilizing strong inductive biases without losing the expressive power of neural networks. Further, we show that combining interpretable modules permits manipulation of each separate model component, with applications such as independent control of pitch and loudness, realistic extrapolation to pitches not seen during training, blind dereverberation of room acoustics, transfer of extracted room acoustics to new environments, and transformation of timbre between disparate sources. In short, DDSP enables an interpretable and modular approach to generative modeling, without sacrificing the benefits of deep learning. The library is publicly available at https://github.com/magenta/ddsp and we welcome further contributions from the community and domain experts.

We explore the use of quantum generative adversarial networks QGANs for modeling eye movement velocity data. We assess whether the advanced computational capabilities of QGANs can enhance the modeling of complex stochastic distribution beyond the traditional mathematical models, particularly the Markov model. The findings indicate that while QGANs demonstrate potential in approximating complex distributions, the Markov model consistently outperforms in accurately replicating the real data distribution. This comparison underlines the challenges and avenues for refinement in time series data generation using quantum computing techniques. It emphasizes the need for further optimization of quantum models to better align with real-world data characteristics.

Distinction of OFDM signals from single carrier signals is highly important for adaptive receiver algorithms and signal identification applications. OFDM signals exhibit Gaussian characteristics in time domain and fourth order cumulants of Gaussian distributed signals vanish in contrary to the cumulants of other signals. Thus fourth order cumulants can be utilized for OFDM signal identification. In this paper, first, formulations of the estimates of the fourth order cumulants for OFDM signals are provided. Then it is shown these estimates are affected significantly from the wireless channel impairments, frequency offset, phase offset and sampling mismatch. To overcome these problems, a general chi-square constant false alarm rate Gaussianity test which employs estimates of cumulants and their covariances is adapted to the specific case of wireless OFDM signals. Estimation of the covariance matrix of the fourth order cumulants are greatly simplified peculiar to the OFDM signals. A measurement setup is developed to analyze the performance of the identification method and for comparison purposes. A parametric measurement analysis is provided depending on modulation order, signal to noise ratio, number of symbols, and degree of freedom of the underlying test. The proposed method outperforms statistical tests which are based on fixed thresholds or empirical values, while a priori information requirement and complexity of the proposed method are lower than the coherent identification techniques.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

Time series is a collection of data instances that are ordered according to a time stamp. Stock prices, temperature, etc are examples of time series data in real life. Time series data are used for forecasting sales, predicting trends. Visualization is the process of visually representing data or the relationship between features of a data either in a two-dimensional plot or a three-dimensional plot. Visualizing the time series data constitutes an important part of the process for working with a time series dataset. Visualizing the data not only helps in the modelling process but it can also be used to identify trends and features that cause those trends. In this work, we take a real-life time series dataset and analyse how the target feature relates to other features of the dataset through visualization. From the work that has been carried out, we present an effective method of visualization for time series data which will be much useful for machine learning modelling with such datasets.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

Diffusion models have found widespread adoption in various areas. However, their sampling process is slow because it requires hundreds to thousands of network evaluations to emulate a continuous process defined by differential equations. In this work, we use neural operators, an efficient method to solve the probability flow differential equations, to accelerate the sampling process of diffusion models. Compared to other fast sampling methods that have a sequential nature, we are the first to propose parallel decoding method that generates images with only one model forward pass. We propose diffusion model sampling with neural operator (DSNO) that maps the initial condition, i.e., Gaussian distribution, to the continuous-time solution trajectory of the reverse diffusion process. To model the temporal correlations along the trajectory, we introduce temporal convolution layers that are parameterized in the Fourier space into the given diffusion model backbone. We show our method achieves state-of-the-art FID of 4.12 for CIFAR-10 and 8.35 for ImageNet-64 in the one-model-evaluation setting.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

Single-channel, speaker-independent speech separation methods have recently seen great progress. However, the accuracy, latency, and computational cost of such methods remain insufficient. The majority of the previous methods have formulated the separation problem through the time-frequency representation of the mixed signal, which has several drawbacks, including the decoupling of the phase and magnitude of the signal, the suboptimality of time-frequency representation for speech separation, and the long latency in calculating the spectrograms. To address these shortcomings, we propose a fully-convolutional time-domain audio separation network (Conv-TasNet), a deep learning framework for end-to-end time-domain speech separation. Conv-TasNet uses a linear encoder to generate a representation of the speech waveform optimized for separating individual speakers. Speaker separation is achieved by applying a set of weighting functions (masks) to the encoder output. The modified encoder representations are then inverted back to the waveforms using a linear decoder. The masks are found using a temporal convolutional network (TCN) consisting of stacked 1-D dilated convolutional blocks, which allows the network to model the long-term dependencies of the speech signal while maintaining a small model size. The proposed Conv-TasNet system significantly outperforms previous time-frequency masking methods in separating two- and three-speaker mixtures. Additionally, Conv-TasNet surpasses several ideal time-frequency magnitude masks in two-speaker speech separation as evaluated by both objective distortion measures and subjective quality assessment by human listeners. Finally, Conv-TasNet has a significantly smaller model size and a shorter minimum latency, making it a suitable solution for both offline and real-time speech separation applications.

Time series data, characterized by its intrinsic long and short-range dependencies, poses a unique challenge across analytical applications. While Transformer-based models excel at capturing long-range dependencies, they face limitations in noise sensitivity, computational efficiency, and overfitting with smaller datasets. In response, we introduce a novel Time Series Lightweight Adaptive Network (TSLANet), as a universal convolutional model for diverse time series tasks. Specifically, we propose an Adaptive Spectral Block, harnessing Fourier analysis to enhance feature representation and to capture both long-term and short-term interactions while mitigating noise via adaptive thresholding. Additionally, we introduce an Interactive Convolution Block and leverage self-supervised learning to refine the capacity of TSLANet for decoding complex temporal patterns and improve its robustness on different datasets. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate that TSLANet outperforms state-of-the-art models in various tasks spanning classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection, showcasing its resilience and adaptability across a spectrum of noise levels and data sizes. The code is available at https://github.com/emadeldeen24/TSLANet

Stochastic latent variable models (LVMs) achieve state-of-the-art performance on natural image generation but are still inferior to deterministic models on speech. In this paper, we develop a speech benchmark of popular temporal LVMs and compare them against state-of-the-art deterministic models. We report the likelihood, which is a much used metric in the image domain, but rarely, or incomparably, reported for speech models. To assess the quality of the learned representations, we also compare their usefulness for phoneme recognition. Finally, we adapt the Clockwork VAE, a state-of-the-art temporal LVM for video generation, to the speech domain. Despite being autoregressive only in latent space, we find that the Clockwork VAE can outperform previous LVMs and reduce the gap to deterministic models by using a hierarchy of latent variables.

Harmonic retrieval techniques are the foundation of radio channel sounding, estimation and modeling. This paper introduces a Deep Learning approach for two-dimensional spectral estimation from frequency and time samples of a radio channel transfer function. Our work can estimate two-dimensional parameters from a signal containing an unknown number of paths. In contrast to existing deep learning-based methods, the signal parameters are not estimated via classification but instead in a quasi-grid-free manner. This alleviates the bias, spectral leakage, and ghost targets that grid-based approaches inherently produce. The proposed architecture also reliably estimates the number of spectral components in the measurement. Hence, the architecture jointly solves the model order selection problem and the parameter estimation task. Additionally, we propose a multi-channel windowing of the data during preprocessing, increasing the resulting estimator's robustness. We verify the performance compared to existing harmonic retrieval methods and also show how it can be integrated into an existing maximum likelihood estimator for efficient initialization of a gradient-based iteration.

Effective hydrological modeling and extreme weather analysis demand precipitation data at a kilometer-scale resolution, which is significantly finer than the 10 km scale offered by standard global products like IMERG. To address this, we propose the Wavelet Diffusion Model (WDM), a generative framework that achieves 10x spatial super-resolution (downscaling to 1 km) and delivers a 9x inference speedup over pixel-based diffusion models. WDM is a conditional diffusion model that learns the learns the complex structure of precipitation from MRMS radar data directly in the wavelet domain. By focusing on high-frequency wavelet coefficients, it generates exceptionally realistic and detailed 1-km precipitation fields. This wavelet-based approach produces visually superior results with fewer artifacts than pixel-space models, and delivers a significant gains in sampling efficiency. Our results demonstrate that WDM provides a robust solution to the dual challenges of accuracy and speed in geoscience super-resolution, paving the way for more reliable hydrological forecasts.

Recently, conditional score-based diffusion models have gained significant attention in the field of supervised speech enhancement, yielding state-of-the-art performance. However, these methods may face challenges when generalising to unseen conditions. To address this issue, we introduce an alternative approach that operates in an unsupervised manner, leveraging the generative power of diffusion models. Specifically, in a training phase, a clean speech prior distribution is learnt in the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) domain using score-based diffusion models, allowing it to unconditionally generate clean speech from Gaussian noise. Then, we develop a posterior sampling methodology for speech enhancement by combining the learnt clean speech prior with a noise model for speech signal inference. The noise parameters are simultaneously learnt along with clean speech estimation through an iterative expectationmaximisation (EM) approach. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work exploring diffusion-based generative models for unsupervised speech enhancement, demonstrating promising results compared to a recent variational auto-encoder (VAE)-based unsupervised approach and a state-of-the-art diffusion-based supervised method. It thus opens a new direction for future research in unsupervised speech enhancement.

Conventionally, audio super-resolution models fixed the initial and the target sampling rates, which necessitate the model to be trained for each pair of sampling rates. We introduce NU-Wave 2, a diffusion model for neural audio upsampling that enables the generation of 48 kHz audio signals from inputs of various sampling rates with a single model. Based on the architecture of NU-Wave, NU-Wave 2 uses short-time Fourier convolution (STFC) to generate harmonics to resolve the main failure modes of NU-Wave, and incorporates bandwidth spectral feature transform (BSFT) to condition the bandwidths of inputs in the frequency domain. We experimentally demonstrate that NU-Wave 2 produces high-resolution audio regardless of the sampling rate of input while requiring fewer parameters than other models. The official code and the audio samples are available at https://mindslab-ai.github.io/nuwave2.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

Pre-trained foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success in vision and language, yet their potential for general machine signal modeling-covering acoustic, vibration, and other industrial sensor data-remains under-explored. Existing approach using sub-band-based encoders has achieved competitive results but are limited by fixed input lengths, and the absence of explicit frequency positional encoding. In this work, we propose a novel foundation model that integrates an advanced band-split architecture with relative frequency positional embeddings, enabling precise spectral localization across arbitrary sampling configurations. The model supports inputs of arbitrary length without padding or segmentation, producing a concise embedding that retains both temporal and spectral fidelity. We evaluate our method on SIREN (https://github.com/yucongzh/SIREN), a newly introduced large-scale benchmark for machine signal encoding that unifies multiple datasets, including all DCASE task 2 challenges (2020-2025) and widely-used industrial signal corpora. Experimental results demonstrate consistent state-of-the-art performance in anomaly detection and fault identification, confirming the effectiveness and generalization capability of the proposed model. We open-sourced ECHO on https://github.com/yucongzh/ECHO.