Daily Papers

In this work, we share our experience on tele-knowledge pre-training for fault analysis, a crucial task in telecommunication applications that requires a wide range of knowledge normally found in both machine log data and product documents. To organize this knowledge from experts uniformly, we propose to create a Tele-KG (tele-knowledge graph). Using this valuable data, we further propose a tele-domain language pre-training model TeleBERT and its knowledge-enhanced version, a tele-knowledge re-training model KTeleBERT. which includes effective prompt hints, adaptive numerical data encoding, and two knowledge injection paradigms. Concretely, our proposal includes two stages: first, pre-training TeleBERT on 20 million tele-related corpora, and then re-training it on 1 million causal and machine-related corpora to obtain KTeleBERT. Our evaluation on multiple tasks related to fault analysis in tele-applications, including root-cause analysis, event association prediction, and fault chain tracing, shows that pre-training a language model with tele-domain data is beneficial for downstream tasks. Moreover, the KTeleBERT re-training further improves the performance of task models, highlighting the effectiveness of incorporating diverse tele-knowledge into the model.

The existing event classification (EC) work primarily focuseson the traditional supervised learning setting in which models are unableto extract event mentions of new/unseen event types. Few-shot learninghas not been investigated in this area although it enables EC models toextend their operation to unobserved event types. To fill in this gap, inthis work, we investigate event classification under the few-shot learningsetting. We propose a novel training method for this problem that exten-sively exploit the support set during the training process of a few-shotlearning model. In particular, in addition to matching the query exam-ple with those in the support set for training, we seek to further matchthe examples within the support set themselves. This method providesmore training signals for the models and can be applied to every metric-learning-based few-shot learning methods. Our extensive experiments ontwo benchmark EC datasets show that the proposed method can improvethe best reported few-shot learning models by up to 10% on accuracyfor event classification

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

Current event detection models under super-vised learning settings fail to transfer to newevent types. Few-shot learning has not beenexplored in event detection even though it al-lows a model to perform well with high gener-alization on new event types. In this work, weformulate event detection as a few-shot learn-ing problem to enable to extend event detec-tion to new event types. We propose two novelloss factors that matching examples in the sup-port set to provide more training signals to themodel. Moreover, these training signals can beapplied in many metric-based few-shot learn-ing models. Our extensive experiments on theACE-2005 dataset (under a few-shot learningsetting) show that the proposed method can im-prove the performance of few-shot learning

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are widely used to model the timing and occurrence of events in domains such as social networks, transportation systems, and e-commerce. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM, a novel framework that integrates large language models (LLMs) with TPPs to capture both the semantic and temporal aspects of event sequences. Unlike traditional methods that rely on categorical event type representations, TPP-LLM directly utilizes the textual descriptions of event types, enabling the model to capture rich semantic information embedded in the text. While LLMs excel at understanding event semantics, they are less adept at capturing temporal patterns. To address this, TPP-LLM incorporates temporal embeddings and employs parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods to effectively learn temporal dynamics without extensive retraining. This approach improves both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Experimental results across diverse real-world datasets demonstrate that TPP-LLM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in sequence modeling and event prediction, highlighting the benefits of combining LLMs with TPPs.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Event extraction requires high-quality expert human annotations, which are usually expensive. Therefore, learning a data-efficient event extraction model that can be trained with only a few labeled examples has become a crucial challenge. In this paper, we focus on low-resource end-to-end event extraction and propose DEGREE, a data-efficient model that formulates event extraction as a conditional generation problem. Given a passage and a manually designed prompt, DEGREE learns to summarize the events mentioned in the passage into a natural sentence that follows a predefined pattern. The final event predictions are then extracted from the generated sentence with a deterministic algorithm. DEGREE has three advantages to learn well with less training data. First, our designed prompts provide semantic guidance for DEGREE to leverage DEGREE and thus better capture the event arguments. Moreover, DEGREE is capable of using additional weakly-supervised information, such as the description of events encoded in the prompts. Finally, DEGREE learns triggers and arguments jointly in an end-to-end manner, which encourages the model to better utilize the shared knowledge and dependencies among them. Our experimental results demonstrate the strong performance of DEGREE for low-resource event extraction.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

Nested Event Extraction (NEE) aims to extract complex event structures where an event contains other events as its arguments recursively. Nested events involve a kind of Pivot Elements (PEs) that simultaneously act as arguments of outer events and as triggers of inner events, and thus connect them into nested structures. This special characteristic of PEs brings challenges to existing NEE methods, as they cannot well cope with the dual identities of PEs. Therefore, this paper proposes a new model, called PerNee, which extracts nested events mainly based on recognizing PEs. Specifically, PerNee first recognizes the triggers of both inner and outer events and further recognizes the PEs via classifying the relation type between trigger pairs. In order to obtain better representations of triggers and arguments to further improve NEE performance, it incorporates the information of both event types and argument roles into PerNee through prompt learning. Since existing NEE datasets (e.g., Genia11) are limited to specific domains and contain a narrow range of event types with nested structures, we systematically categorize nested events in generic domain and construct a new NEE dataset, namely ACE2005-Nest. Experimental results demonstrate that PerNee consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance on ACE2005-Nest, Genia11 and Genia13.

Event extraction is a classic task in natural language processing with wide use in handling large amount of yet rapidly growing financial, legal, medical, and government documents which often contain multiple events with their elements scattered and mixed across the documents, making the problem much more difficult. Though the underlying relations between event elements to be extracted provide helpful contextual information, they are somehow overlooked in prior studies. We showcase the enhancement to this task brought by utilizing the knowledge graph that captures entity relations and their attributes. We propose a first event extraction framework that embeds a knowledge graph through a Graph Neural Network and integrates the embedding with regular features, all at document-level. Specifically, for extracting events from Chinese financial announcements, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art method by 5.3% in F1-score.

State-of-the-art automatic event detection struggles with interpretability and adaptability to evolving large-scale key events -- unlike episodic structures, which excel in these areas. Often overlooked, episodes represent cohesive clusters of core entities performing actions at a specific time and location; a partially ordered sequence of episodes can represent a key event. This paper introduces a novel task, episode detection, which identifies episodes within a news corpus of key event articles. Detecting episodes poses unique challenges, as they lack explicit temporal or locational markers and cannot be merged using semantic similarity alone. While large language models (LLMs) can aid with these reasoning difficulties, they suffer with long contexts typical of news corpora. To address these challenges, we introduce EpiMine, an unsupervised framework that identifies a key event's candidate episodes by leveraging natural episodic partitions in articles, estimated through shifts in discriminative term combinations. These candidate episodes are more cohesive and representative of true episodes, synergizing with LLMs to better interpret and refine them into final episodes. We apply EpiMine to our three diverse, real-world event datasets annotated at the episode level, where it achieves a 59.2% average gain across all metrics compared to baselines.

Understanding events in texts is a core objective of natural language understanding, which requires detecting event occurrences, extracting event arguments, and analyzing inter-event relationships. However, due to the annotation challenges brought by task complexity, a large-scale dataset covering the full process of event understanding has long been absent. In this paper, we introduce MAVEN-Arg, which augments MAVEN datasets with event argument annotations, making the first all-in-one dataset supporting event detection, event argument extraction (EAE), and event relation extraction. As an EAE benchmark, MAVEN-Arg offers three main advantages: (1) a comprehensive schema covering 162 event types and 612 argument roles, all with expert-written definitions and examples; (2) a large data scale, containing 98,591 events and 290,613 arguments obtained with laborious human annotation; (3) the exhaustive annotation supporting all task variants of EAE, which annotates both entity and non-entity event arguments in document level. Experiments indicate that MAVEN-Arg is quite challenging for both fine-tuned EAE models and proprietary large language models (LLMs). Furthermore, to demonstrate the benefits of an all-in-one dataset, we preliminarily explore a potential application, future event prediction, with LLMs. MAVEN-Arg and our code can be obtained from https://github.com/THU-KEG/MAVEN-Argument.

Event detection refers to identifying event occurrences in a text and comprises of two subtasks; event identification and classification. We present EDM3, a novel approach for Event Detection that formulates three generative tasks: identification, classification, and combined detection. We show that EDM3 helps to learn transferable knowledge that can be leveraged to perform Event Detection and its subtasks concurrently, mitigating the error propagation inherent in pipelined approaches. Unlike previous dataset- or domain-specific approaches, EDM3 utilizes the existing knowledge of language models, allowing it to be trained over any classification schema. We evaluate EDM3 on multiple event detection datasets: RAMS, WikiEvents, MAVEN, and MLEE, showing that EDM3 outperforms 1) single-task performance by 8.4% on average and 2) multi-task performance without instructional prompts by 2.4% on average. We obtain SOTA results on RAMS (71.3% vs. 65.1% F-1) and competitive performance on other datasets. We analyze our approach to demonstrate its efficacy in low-resource and multi-sentence settings. We also show the effectiveness of this approach on non-standard event configurations such as multi-word and multi-class event triggers. Overall, our results show that EDM3 is a promising approach for Event Detection that has the potential for real-world applications.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

In this paper, we extend financial sentiment analysis~(FSA) to event-level since events usually serve as the subject of the sentiment in financial text. Though extracting events from the financial text may be conducive to accurate sentiment predictions, it has specialized challenges due to the lengthy and discontinuity of events in a financial text. To this end, we reconceptualize the event extraction as a classification task by designing a categorization comprising coarse-grained and fine-grained event categories. Under this setting, we formulate the Event-Level Financial Sentiment Analysis~(EFSA for short) task that outputs quintuples consisting of (company, industry, coarse-grained event, fine-grained event, sentiment) from financial text. A large-scale Chinese dataset containing 12,160 news articles and 13,725 quintuples is publicized as a brand new testbed for our task. A four-hop Chain-of-Thought LLM-based approach is devised for this task. Systematically investigations are conducted on our dataset, and the empirical results demonstrate the benchmarking scores of existing methods and our proposed method can reach the current state-of-the-art. Our dataset and framework implementation are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EFSA-645E

In this work, we focus on the task of procedure planning from instructional videos with text supervision, where a model aims to predict an action sequence to transform the initial visual state into the goal visual state. A critical challenge of this task is the large semantic gap between observed visual states and unobserved intermediate actions, which is ignored by previous works. Specifically, this semantic gap refers to that the contents in the observed visual states are semantically different from the elements of some action text labels in a procedure. To bridge this semantic gap, we propose a novel event-guided paradigm, which first infers events from the observed states and then plans out actions based on both the states and predicted events. Our inspiration comes from that planning a procedure from an instructional video is to complete a specific event and a specific event usually involves specific actions. Based on the proposed paradigm, we contribute an Event-guided Prompting-based Procedure Planning (E3P) model, which encodes event information into the sequential modeling process to support procedure planning. To further consider the strong action associations within each event, our E3P adopts a mask-and-predict approach for relation mining, incorporating a probabilistic masking scheme for regularization. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model.

Prior work has shown that coupling sequential latent variable models with semantic ontological knowledge can improve the representational capabilities of event modeling approaches. In this work, we present a novel, doubly hierarchical, semi-supervised event modeling framework that provides structural hierarchy while also accounting for ontological hierarchy. Our approach consists of multiple layers of structured latent variables, where each successive layer compresses and abstracts the previous layers. We guide this compression through the injection of structured ontological knowledge that is defined at the type level of events: importantly, our model allows for partial injection of semantic knowledge and it does not depend on observing instances at any particular level of the semantic ontology. Across two different datasets and four different evaluation metrics, we demonstrate that our approach is able to out-perform the previous state-of-the-art approaches by up to 8.5%, demonstrating the benefits of structured and semantic hierarchical knowledge for event modeling.

We present a foundation model-derived method to identify highly informative tokens and events in electronic health records. Our approach considers incoming data in the entire context of a patient's hospitalization and so can flag anomalous events that rule-based approaches would consider within a normal range. We demonstrate that the events our model flags are significant for predicting downstream patient outcomes and that a fraction of events identified as carrying little information can safely be dropped. Additionally, we show how informativeness can help interpret the predictions of prognostic models trained on foundation model-derived representations.

Event linking connects event mentions in text with relevant nodes in a knowledge base (KB). Prior research in event linking has mainly borrowed methods from entity linking, overlooking the distinct features of events. Compared to the extensively explored entity linking task, events have more complex structures and can be more effectively distinguished by examining their associated arguments. Moreover, the information-rich nature of events leads to the scarcity of event KBs. This emphasizes the need for event linking models to identify and classify event mentions not in the KB as ``out-of-KB,'' an area that has received limited attention. In this work, we tackle these challenges by introducing an argument-aware approach. First, we improve event linking models by augmenting input text with tagged event argument information, facilitating the recognition of key information about event mentions. Subsequently, to help the model handle ``out-of-KB'' scenarios, we synthesize out-of-KB training examples from in-KB instances through controlled manipulation of event arguments. Our experiment across two test datasets showed significant enhancements in both in-KB and out-of-KB scenarios, with a notable 22% improvement in out-of-KB evaluations.

Event sequences, characterized by irregular sampling intervals and a mix of categorical and numerical features, are common data structures in various real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, and user interaction logs. Despite advances in temporal data modeling techniques, there is no standardized benchmarks for evaluating their performance on event sequences. This complicates result comparison across different papers due to varying evaluation protocols, potentially misleading progress in this field. We introduce EBES, a comprehensive benchmarking tool with standardized evaluation scenarios and protocols, focusing on regression and classification problems with sequence-level targets. Our library simplifies benchmarking, dataset addition, and method integration through a unified interface. It includes a novel synthetic dataset and provides preprocessed real-world datasets, including the largest publicly available banking dataset. Our results provide an in-depth analysis of datasets, identifying some as unsuitable for model comparison. We investigate the importance of modeling temporal and sequential components, as well as the robustness and scaling properties of the models. These findings highlight potential directions for future research. Our benchmark aim is to facilitate reproducible research, expediting progress and increasing real-world impacts.

In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).

Recent mainstream event argument extraction methods process each event in isolation, resulting in inefficient inference and ignoring the correlations among multiple events. To address these limitations, here we propose a multiple-event argument extraction model DEEIA (Dependency-guided Encoding and Event-specific Information Aggregation), capable of extracting arguments from all events within a document simultaneouslyThe proposed DEEIA model employs a multi-event prompt mechanism, comprising DE and EIA modules. The DE module is designed to improve the correlation between prompts and their corresponding event contexts, whereas the EIA module provides event-specific information to improve contextual understanding. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves new state-of-the-art performance on four public datasets (RAMS, WikiEvents, MLEE, and ACE05), while significantly saving the inference time compared to the baselines. Further analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modules.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining whether there is a causal relation between two event mentions. Conventional prompt learning designs a prompt template to first predict an answer word and then maps it to the final decision. Unlike conventional prompts, we argue that predicting an answer word may not be a necessary prerequisite for the ECI task. Instead, we can first make a deterministic assumption on the existence of causal relation between two events and then evaluate its rationality to either accept or reject the assumption. The design motivation is to try the most utilization of the encyclopedia-like knowledge embedded in a pre-trained language model. In light of such considerations, we propose a deterministic assumption prompt learning model, called DAPrompt, for the ECI task. In particular, we design a simple deterministic assumption template concatenating with the input event pair, which includes two masks as predicted events' tokens. We use the probabilities of predicted events to evaluate the assumption rationality for the final event causality decision. Experiments on the EventStoryLine corpus and Causal-TimeBank corpus validate our design objective in terms of significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Accessing and understanding contemporary and historical events of global impact such as the US elections and the Olympic Games is a major prerequisite for cross-lingual event analytics that investigate event causes, perception and consequences across country borders. In this paper, we present the Open Event Knowledge Graph (OEKG), a multilingual, event-centric, temporal knowledge graph composed of seven different data sets from multiple application domains, including question answering, entity recommendation and named entity recognition. These data sets are all integrated through an easy-to-use and robust pipeline and by linking to the event-centric knowledge graph EventKG. We describe their common schema and demonstrate the use of the OEKG at the example of three use cases: type-specific image retrieval, hybrid question answering over knowledge graphs and news articles, as well as language-specific event recommendation. The OEKG and its query endpoint are publicly available.

We propose TRACIE, a novel temporal reasoning dataset that evaluates the degree to which systems understand implicit events -- events that are not mentioned explicitly in natural language text but can be inferred from it. This introduces a new challenge in temporal reasoning research, where prior work has focused on explicitly mentioned events. Human readers can infer implicit events via commonsense reasoning, resulting in a more comprehensive understanding of the situation and, consequently, better reasoning about time. We find, however, that state-of-the-art models struggle when predicting temporal relationships between implicit and explicit events. To address this, we propose a neuro-symbolic temporal reasoning model, SYMTIME, which exploits distant supervision signals from large-scale text and uses temporal rules to combine start times and durations to infer end times. SYMTIME outperforms strong baseline systems on TRACIE by 5%, and by 11% in a zero prior knowledge training setting. Our approach also generalizes to other temporal reasoning tasks, as evidenced by a gain of 1%-9% on MATRES, an explicit event benchmark.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Discrete event sequences are ubiquitous, such as an ordered event series of process interactions in Information and Communication Technology systems. Recent years have witnessed increasing efforts in detecting anomalies with discrete-event sequences. However, it still remains an extremely difficult task due to several intrinsic challenges including data imbalance issues, the discrete property of the events, and sequential nature of the data. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose OC4Seq, a multi-scale one-class recurrent neural network for detecting anomalies in discrete event sequences. Specifically, OC4Seq integrates the anomaly detection objective with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to embed the discrete event sequences into latent spaces, where anomalies can be easily detected. In addition, given that an anomalous sequence could be caused by either individual events, subsequences of events, or the whole sequence, we design a multi-scale RNN framework to capture different levels of sequential patterns simultaneously. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets show that OC4Seq consistently outperforms various representative baselines by a large margin. Moreover, through both quantitative and qualitative analysis, the importance of capturing multi-scale sequential patterns for event anomaly detection is verified.

We present a task of multilingual linking of events to a knowledge base. We automatically compile a large-scale dataset for this task, comprising of 1.8M mentions across 44 languages referring to over 10.9K events from Wikidata. We propose two variants of the event linking task: 1) multilingual, where event descriptions are from the same language as the mention, and 2) crosslingual, where all event descriptions are in English. On the two proposed tasks, we compare multiple event linking systems including BM25+ (Lv and Zhai, 2011) and multilingual adaptations of the biencoder and crossencoder architectures from BLINK (Wu et al., 2020). In our experiments on the two task variants, we find both biencoder and crossencoder models significantly outperform the BM25+ baseline. Our results also indicate that the crosslingual task is in general more challenging than the multilingual task. To test the out-of-domain generalization of the proposed linking systems, we additionally create a Wikinews-based evaluation set. We present qualitative analysis highlighting various aspects captured by the proposed dataset, including the need for temporal reasoning over context and tackling diverse event descriptions across languages.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have been widely used for event sequence modeling, but they often struggle to incorporate rich textual event descriptions effectively. Conversely, while Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown remarkable capabilities in processing textual data, they lack mechanisms for handling temporal dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce Language-TPP, a unified framework that integrates TPPs with LLMs for enhanced event sequence modeling. Language-TPP introduces a novel temporal encoding mechanism that converts continuous time intervals into specialized byte-tokens, enabling seamless integration with standard LLM architectures. This approach allows Language-TPP to achieve state-of-the-art performance across multiple TPP tasks, including event time prediction, type prediction, and intensity estimation, on five datasets. Additionally, we demonstrate that incorporating temporal information significantly improves the quality of generated event descriptions.

How are we able to learn about complex current events just from short snippets of video? While natural language enables straightforward ways to represent under-specified, partially observable events, visual data does not facilitate analogous methods and, consequently, introduces unique challenges in event understanding. With the growing prevalence of vision-capable AI agents, these systems must be able to model events from collections of unstructured video data. To tackle robust event modeling in multimodal settings, we introduce a multimodal formulation for partially-defined events and cast the extraction of these events as a three-stage span retrieval task. We propose a corresponding benchmark for this task, MultiVENT-G, that consists of 14.5 hours of densely annotated current event videos and 1,168 text documents, containing 22.8K labeled event-centric entities. We propose a collection of LLM-driven approaches to the task of multimodal event analysis, and evaluate them on MultiVENT-G. Results illustrate the challenges that abstract event understanding poses and demonstrates promise in event-centric video-language systems.

Document-level multi-event extraction aims to extract the structural information from a given document automatically. Most recent approaches usually involve two steps: (1) modeling entity interactions; (2) decoding entity interactions into events. However, such approaches ignore a global view of inter-dependency of multiple events. Moreover, an event is decoded by iteratively merging its related entities as arguments, which might suffer from error propagation and is computationally inefficient. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach for document-level multi-event extraction with event proxy nodes and Hausdorff distance minimization. The event proxy nodes, representing pseudo-events, are able to build connections with other event proxy nodes, essentially capturing global information. The Hausdorff distance makes it possible to compare the similarity between the set of predicted events and the set of ground-truth events. By directly minimizing Hausdorff distance, the model is trained towards the global optimum directly, which improves performance and reduces training time. Experimental results show that our model outperforms previous state-of-the-art method in F1-score on two datasets with only a fraction of training time.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in the sequence updates a deductive database of facts (via domain-specific pattern-matching rules); future events are then conditioned on the database contents. They show how to convert such a symbolic system into a neuro-symbolic continuous-time generative model, in which each database fact and the possible event has a time-varying embedding that is derived from its symbolic provenance. In this paper, we modify both models, replacing their recurrent LSTM-based architectures with flatter attention-based architectures (Vaswani et al., 2017), which are simpler and more parallelizable. This does not appear to hurt our accuracy, which is comparable to or better than that of the original models as well as (where applicable) previous attention-based methods (Zuo et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020a).

Event Extraction (EE) is one of the fundamental tasks in Information Extraction (IE) that aims to recognize event mentions and their arguments (i.e., participants) from text. Due to its importance, extensive methods and resources have been developed for Event Extraction. However, one limitation of current research for EE involves the under-exploration for non-English languages in which the lack of high-quality multilingual EE datasets for model training and evaluation has been the main hindrance. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multilingual Event Extraction dataset (MEE) that provides annotation for more than 50K event mentions in 8 typologically different languages. MEE comprehensively annotates data for entity mentions, event triggers and event arguments. We conduct extensive experiments on the proposed dataset to reveal challenges and opportunities for multilingual EE.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

Most existing work on event extraction has focused on sentence-level texts and presumes the identification of a trigger-span -- a word or phrase in the input that evokes the occurrence of an event of interest. Event arguments are then extracted with respect to the trigger. Indeed, triggers are treated as integral to, and trigger detection as an essential component of, event extraction. In this paper, we provide the first investigation of the role of triggers for the more difficult and much less studied task of document-level event extraction. We analyze their usefulness in multiple end-to-end and pipelined transformer-based event extraction models for three document-level event extraction datasets, measuring performance using triggers of varying quality (human-annotated, LLM-generated, keyword-based, and random). We find that whether or not systems benefit from explicitly extracting triggers depends both on dataset characteristics (i.e. the typical number of events per document) and task-specific information available during extraction (i.e. natural language event schemas). Perhaps surprisingly, we also observe that the mere existence of triggers in the input, even random ones, is important for prompt-based in-context learning approaches to the task.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

This paper introduces EventNet-ITA, a large, multi-domain corpus annotated with event frames for Italian, and presents an efficient approach for multi-label Frame Parsing. The approach is then evaluated on the dataset. Covering a wide range of individual, social and historical phenomena, the main contribution of EventNet-ITA is to provide the research community with a resource for textual event mining and a novel and extensive tool for Frame Parsing in Italian.

We propose a simple yet effective strategy to incorporate event knowledge extracted from event trigger annotations via posterior regularization to improve the event reasoning capability of mainstream question-answering (QA) models for event-centric QA. In particular, we define event-related knowledge constraints based on the event trigger annotations in the QA datasets, and subsequently use them to regularize the posterior answer output probabilities from the backbone pre-trained language models used in the QA setting. We explore two different posterior regularization strategies for extractive and generative QA separately. For extractive QA, the sentence-level event knowledge constraint is defined by assessing if a sentence contains an answer event or not, which is later used to modify the answer span extraction probability. For generative QA, the token-level event knowledge constraint is defined by comparing the generated token from the backbone language model with the answer event in order to introduce a reward or penalty term, which essentially adjusts the answer generative probability indirectly. We conduct experiments on two event-centric QA datasets, TORQUE and ESTER. The results show that our proposed approach can effectively inject event knowledge into existing pre-trained language models and achieves strong performance compared to existing QA models in answer evaluation. Code and models can be found: https://github.com/LuJunru/EventQAviaPR.

Detecting anomalies is important for identifying inefficiencies, errors, or fraud in business processes. Traditional process mining approaches focus on analyzing 'flattened', sequential, event logs based on a single case notion. However, many real-world process executions exhibit a graph-like structure, where events can be associated with multiple cases. Flattening event logs requires selecting a single case identifier which creates a gap with the real event data and artificially introduces anomalies in the event logs. Object-centric process mining avoids these limitations by allowing events to be related to different cases. This study proposes a novel framework for anomaly detection in business processes that exploits graph neural networks and the enhanced information offered by object-centric process mining. We first reconstruct and represent the process dependencies of the object-centric event logs as attributed graphs and then employ a graph convolutional autoencoder architecture to detect anomalous events. Our results show that our approach provides promising performance in detecting anomalies at the activity type and attributes level, although it struggles to detect anomalies in the temporal order of events.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Event Coreference Resolution (ECR) as a pairwise mention classification task is expensive both for automated systems and manual annotations. The task's quadratic difficulty is exacerbated when using Large Language Models (LLMs), making prompt engineering for ECR prohibitively costly. In this work, we propose a graphical representation of events, X-AMR, anchored around individual mentions using a cross-document version of Abstract Meaning Representation. We then linearize the ECR with a novel multi-hop coreference algorithm over the event graphs. The event graphs simplify ECR, making it a) LLM cost-effective, b) compositional and interpretable, and c) easily annotated. For a fair assessment, we first enrich an existing ECR benchmark dataset with these event graphs using an annotator-friendly tool we introduce. Then, we employ GPT-4, the newest LLM by OpenAI, for these annotations. Finally, using the ECR algorithm, we assess GPT-4 against humans and analyze its limitations. Through this research, we aim to advance the state-of-the-art for efficient ECR and shed light on the potential shortcomings of current LLMs at this task. Code and annotations: https://github.com/ahmeshaf/gpt_coref

Retrieving temporal event sequences from textual descriptions is essential for applications such as analyzing e-commerce behavior, monitoring social media activities, and tracking criminal incidents. In this paper, we introduce TPP-LLM-Embedding, a unified model for efficiently embedding and retrieving event sequences based on natural language descriptions. Built on the TPP-LLM framework, which integrates large language models with temporal point processes, our model encodes both event types and times, generating a sequence-level representation through pooling. Textual descriptions are embedded using the same architecture, ensuring a shared embedding space for both sequences and descriptions. We optimize a contrastive loss based on similarity between these embeddings, bringing matching pairs closer and separating non-matching ones. TPP-LLM-Embedding enables efficient retrieval and demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline models across diverse datasets.

Besides entity-centric knowledge, usually organized as Knowledge Graph (KG), events are also an essential kind of knowledge in the world, which trigger the spring up of event-centric knowledge representation form like Event KG (EKG). It plays an increasingly important role in many downstream applications, such as search, question-answering, recommendation, financial quantitative investments, and text generation. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of EKG from history, ontology, instance, and application views. Specifically, to characterize EKG thoroughly, we focus on its history, definition, schema induction, acquisition, related representative graphs/systems, and applications. The development processes and trends are studied therein. We further summarize prospective directions to facilitate future research on EKG.

Human reading comprehension often requires reasoning of event semantic relations in narratives, represented by Event-centric Question-Answering (QA). To address event-centric QA, we propose a novel QA model with contrastive learning and invertible event transformation, call TranCLR. Our proposed model utilizes an invertible transformation matrix to project semantic vectors of events into a common event embedding space, trained with contrastive learning, and thus naturally inject event semantic knowledge into mainstream QA pipelines. The transformation matrix is fine-tuned with the annotated event relation types between events that occurred in questions and those in answers, using event-aware question vectors. Experimental results on the Event Semantic Relation Reasoning (ESTER) dataset show significant improvements in both generative and extractive settings compared to the existing strong baselines, achieving over 8.4% gain in the token-level F1 score and 3.0% gain in Exact Match (EM) score under the multi-answer setting. Qualitative analysis reveals the high quality of the generated answers by TranCLR, demonstrating the feasibility of injecting event knowledge into QA model learning. Our code and models can be found at https://github.com/LuJunru/TranCLR.

The process mining community has recently recognized the potential of large language models (LLMs) for tackling various process mining tasks. Initial studies report the capability of LLMs to support process analysis and even, to some extent, that they are able to reason about how processes work. This latter property suggests that LLMs could also be used to tackle process mining tasks that benefit from an understanding of process behavior. Examples of such tasks include (semantic) anomaly detection and next activity prediction, which both involve considerations of the meaning of activities and their inter-relations. In this paper, we investigate the capabilities of LLMs to tackle such semantics-aware process mining tasks. Furthermore, whereas most works on the intersection of LLMs and process mining only focus on testing these models out of the box, we provide a more principled investigation of the utility of LLMs for process mining, including their ability to obtain process mining knowledge post-hoc by means of in-context learning and supervised fine-tuning. Concretely, we define three process mining tasks that benefit from an understanding of process semantics and provide extensive benchmarking datasets for each of them. Our evaluation experiments reveal that (1) LLMs fail to solve challenging process mining tasks out of the box and when provided only a handful of in-context examples, (2) but they yield strong performance when fine-tuned for these tasks, consistently surpassing smaller, encoder-based language models.

This paper introduces an approach to predicting the next event in a soccer match, a challenge bearing remarkable similarities to the problem faced by Large Language Models (LLMs). Unlike other methods that severely limit event dynamics in soccer, often abstracting from many variables or relying on a mix of sequential models, our research proposes a novel technique inspired by the methodologies used in LLMs. These models predict a complete chain of variables that compose an event, significantly simplifying the construction of Large Event Models (LEMs) for soccer. Utilizing deep learning on the publicly available WyScout dataset, the proposed approach notably surpasses the performance of previous LEM proposals in critical areas, such as the prediction accuracy of the next event type. This paper highlights the utility of LEMs in various applications, including betting and match analytics. Moreover, we show that LEMs provide a simulation backbone on which many analytics pipelines can be built, an approach opposite to the current specialized single-purpose models. LEMs represent a pivotal advancement in soccer analytics, establishing a foundational framework for multifaceted analytics pipelines through a singular machine-learning model.

Information Extraction (IE) stands as a cornerstone in natural language processing, traditionally segmented into distinct sub-tasks. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) heralds a paradigm shift, suggesting the feasibility of a singular model addressing multiple IE subtasks. In this vein, we introduce the General Information Extraction Large Language Model (GIELLM), which integrates text Classification, Sentiment Analysis, Named Entity Recognition, Relation Extraction, and Event Extraction using a uniform input-output schema. This innovation marks the first instance of a model simultaneously handling such a diverse array of IE subtasks. Notably, the GIELLM leverages the Mutual Reinforcement Effect (MRE), enhancing performance in integrated tasks compared to their isolated counterparts. Our experiments demonstrate State-of-the-Art (SOTA) results in five out of six Japanese mixed datasets, significantly surpassing GPT-3.5-Turbo. Further, an independent evaluation using the novel Text Classification Relation and Event Extraction(TCREE) dataset corroborates the synergistic advantages of MRE in text and word classification. This breakthrough paves the way for most IE subtasks to be subsumed under a singular LLM framework. Specialized fine-tune task-specific models are no longer needed.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into everyday applications. As their influence grows, understanding their decision making and underlying personality becomes essential. In this work, we interpret model personality using our proposed Supernova Event Dataset, a novel dataset with diverse articles spanning biographies, historical events, news, and scientific discoveries. We use this dataset to benchmark LLMs on extracting and ranking key events from text, a subjective and complex challenge that requires reasoning over long-range context and modeling causal chains. We evaluate small models like Phi-4, Orca 2, and Qwen 2.5, and large, stronger models such as Claude 3.7, Gemini 2.5, and OpenAI o3, and propose a framework where another LLM acts as a judge to infer each model's personality based on its selection and classification of events. Our analysis shows distinct personality traits: for instance, Orca 2 demonstrates emotional reasoning focusing on interpersonal dynamics, while Qwen 2.5 displays a more strategic, analytical style. When analyzing scientific discovery events, Claude Sonnet 3.7 emphasizes conceptual framing, Gemini 2.5 Pro prioritizes empirical validation, and o3 favors step-by-step causal reasoning. This analysis improves model interpretability, making them user-friendly for a wide range of diverse applications.

Pretext training followed by task-specific fine-tuning has been a successful approach in vision and language domains. This paper proposes a self-supervised pretext training framework tailored to event sequence data. We introduce a novel alignment verification task that is specialized to event sequences, building on good practices in masked reconstruction and contrastive learning. Our pretext tasks unlock foundational representations that are generalizable across different down-stream tasks, including next-event prediction for temporal point process models, event sequence classification, and missing event interpolation. Experiments on popular public benchmarks demonstrate the potential of the proposed method across different tasks and data domains.

This study investigates self-supervised learning techniques to obtain representations of Event Sequences. It is a key modality in various applications, including but not limited to banking, e-commerce, and healthcare. We perform a comprehensive study of generative and contrastive approaches in self-supervised learning, applying them both independently. We find that there is no single supreme method. Consequently, we explore the potential benefits of combining these approaches. To achieve this goal, we introduce a novel method that aligns generative and contrastive embeddings as distinct modalities, drawing inspiration from contemporary multimodal research. Generative and contrastive approaches are often treated as mutually exclusive, leaving a gap for their combined exploration. Our results demonstrate that this aligned model performs at least on par with, and mostly surpasses, existing methods and is more universal across a variety of tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised methods consistently outperform the supervised approach on our datasets.

We present a novel prompt design for Large Language Models (LLMs) tailored to Asynchronous Time Series. Unlike regular time series, which assume values at evenly spaced time points, asynchronous time series consist of timestamped events occurring at irregular intervals, each described in natural language. Our approach effectively utilizes the rich natural language of event descriptions, allowing LLMs to benefit from their broad world knowledge for reasoning across different domains and tasks. This allows us to extend the scope of asynchronous time series analysis beyond forecasting to include tasks like anomaly detection and data imputation. We further introduce Stochastic Soft Prompting, a novel prompt-tuning mechanism that significantly improves model performance, outperforming existing fine-tuning methods such as QLoRA. Through extensive experiments on real world datasets, we demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across different tasks and datasets.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Document-level Event Argument Extraction (DEAE) aims to identify arguments and their specific roles from an unstructured document. The advanced approaches on DEAE utilize prompt-based methods to guide pre-trained language models (PLMs) in extracting arguments from input documents. They mainly concentrate on establishing relations between triggers and entity mentions within documents, leaving two unresolved problems: a) independent modeling of entity mentions; b) document-prompt isolation. To this end, we propose a semantic mention Graph Augmented Model (GAM) to address these two problems in this paper. Firstly, GAM constructs a semantic mention graph that captures relations within and between documents and prompts, encompassing co-existence, co-reference and co-type relations. Furthermore, we introduce an ensembled graph transformer module to address mentions and their three semantic relations effectively. Later, the graph-augmented encoder-decoder module incorporates the relation-specific graph into the input embedding of PLMs and optimizes the encoder section with topology information, enhancing the relations comprehensively. Extensive experiments on the RAMS and WikiEvents datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, surpassing baseline methods and achieving a new state-of-the-art performance.

False claims that have been previously fact-checked can still spread on social media. To mitigate their continual spread, detecting previously fact-checked claims is indispensable. Given a claim, existing works focus on providing evidence for detection by reranking candidate fact-checking articles (FC-articles) retrieved by BM25. However, these performances may be limited because they ignore the following characteristics of FC-articles: (1) claims are often quoted to describe the checked events, providing lexical information besides semantics; (2) sentence templates to introduce or debunk claims are common across articles, providing pattern information. Models that ignore the two aspects only leverage semantic relevance and may be misled by sentences that describe similar but irrelevant events. In this paper, we propose a novel reranker, MTM (Memory-enhanced Transformers for Matching) to rank FC-articles using key sentences selected with event (lexical and semantic) and pattern information. For event information, we propose a ROUGE-guided Transformer which is finetuned with regression of ROUGE. For pattern information, we generate pattern vectors for matching with sentences. By fusing event and pattern information, we select key sentences to represent an article and then predict if the article fact-checks the given claim using the claim, key sentences, and patterns. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that MTM outperforms existing methods. Human evaluation proves that MTM can capture key sentences for explanations. The code and the dataset are at https://github.com/ICTMCG/MTM.

Event Detection (ED) is the task of identifying and classifying trigger words of event mentions in text. Despite considerable research efforts in recent years for English text, the task of ED in other languages has been significantly less explored. Switching to non-English languages, important research questions for ED include how well existing ED models perform on different languages, how challenging ED is in other languages, and how well ED knowledge and annotation can be transferred across languages. To answer those questions, it is crucial to obtain multilingual ED datasets that provide consistent event annotation for multiple languages. There exist some multilingual ED datasets; however, they tend to cover a handful of languages and mainly focus on popular ones. Many languages are not covered in existing multilingual ED datasets. In addition, the current datasets are often small and not accessible to the public. To overcome those shortcomings, we introduce a new large-scale multilingual dataset for ED (called MINION) that consistently annotates events for 8 different languages; 5 of them have not been supported by existing multilingual datasets. We also perform extensive experiments and analysis to demonstrate the challenges and transferability of ED across languages in MINION that in all call for more research effort in this area.

We present a self-supervised, time-to-event (TTE) foundation model called MOTOR (Many Outcome Time Oriented Representations) which is pretrained on timestamped sequences of events in electronic health records (EHR) and health insurance claims. TTE models are used for estimating the probability distribution of the time until a specific event occurs, which is an important task in medical settings. TTE models provide many advantages over classification using fixed time horizons, including naturally handling censored observations, but are challenging to train with limited labeled data. MOTOR addresses this challenge by pretraining on up to 55M patient records (9B clinical events). We evaluate MOTOR's transfer learning performance on 19 tasks, across 3 patient databases (a private EHR system, MIMIC-IV, and Merative claims data). Task-specific models adapted from MOTOR improve time-dependent C statistics by 4.6% over state-of-the-art, improve label efficiency by up to 95% ,and are more robust to temporal distributional shifts. We further evaluate cross-site portability by adapting our MOTOR foundation model for six prediction tasks on the MIMIC-IV dataset, where it outperforms all baselines. MOTOR is the first foundation model for medical TTE predictions and we release a 143M parameter pretrained model for research use at [redacted URL].

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

Fake news detection has been a critical task for maintaining the health of the online news ecosystem. However, very few existing works consider the temporal shift issue caused by the rapidly-evolving nature of news data in practice, resulting in significant performance degradation when training on past data and testing on future data. In this paper, we observe that the appearances of news events on the same topic may display discernible patterns over time, and posit that such patterns can assist in selecting training instances that could make the model adapt better to future data. Specifically, we design an effective framework FTT (Forecasting Temporal Trends), which could forecast the temporal distribution patterns of news data and then guide the detector to fast adapt to future distribution. Experiments on the real-world temporally split dataset demonstrate the superiority of our proposed framework. The code is available at https://github.com/ICTMCG/FTT-ACL23.

For monitoring crises, political events are extracted from the news. The large amount of unstructured full-text event descriptions makes a case-by-case analysis unmanageable, particularly for low-resource humanitarian aid organizations. This creates a demand to classify events into event types, a task referred to as event coding. Typically, domain experts craft an event type ontology, annotators label a large dataset and technical experts develop a supervised coding system. In this work, we propose PR-ENT, a new event coding approach that is more flexible and resource-efficient, while maintaining competitive accuracy: first, we extend an event description such as "Military injured two civilians'' by a template, e.g. "People were [Z]" and prompt a pre-trained (cloze) language model to fill the slot Z. Second, we select answer candidates Z* = {"injured'', "hurt"...} by treating the event description as premise and the filled templates as hypothesis in a textual entailment task. This allows domain experts to draft the codebook directly as labeled prompts and interpretable answer candidates. This human-in-the-loop process is guided by our interactive codebook design tool. We evaluate PR-ENT in several robustness checks: perturbing the event description and prompt template, restricting the vocabulary and removing contextual information.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Detecting implicit causal relations in texts is a task that requires both common sense and world knowledge. Existing datasets are focused either on commonsense causal reasoning or explicit causal relations. In this work, we present HeadlineCause, a dataset for detecting implicit causal relations between pairs of news headlines. The dataset includes over 5000 headline pairs from English news and over 9000 headline pairs from Russian news labeled through crowdsourcing. The pairs vary from totally unrelated or belonging to the same general topic to the ones including causation and refutation relations. We also present a set of models and experiments that demonstrates the dataset validity, including a multilingual XLM-RoBERTa based model for causality detection and a GPT-2 based model for possible effects prediction.

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) are the prevalent paradigm for modeling continuous-time event sequences, such as user activities on the web and financial transactions. In real-world applications, event data is typically received in a streaming manner, where the distribution of patterns may shift over time. Additionally, privacy and memory constraints are commonly observed in practical scenarios, further compounding the challenges. Therefore, the continuous monitoring of a TPP to learn the streaming event sequence is an important yet under-explored problem. Our work paper addresses this challenge by adopting Continual Learning (CL), which makes the model capable of continuously learning a sequence of tasks without catastrophic forgetting under realistic constraints. Correspondingly, we propose a simple yet effective framework, PromptTPPOur code is available at {\small \url{ https://github.com/yanyanSann/PromptTPP}}, by integrating the base TPP with a continuous-time retrieval prompt pool. The prompts, small learnable parameters, are stored in a memory space and jointly optimized with the base TPP, ensuring that the model learns event streams sequentially without buffering past examples or task-specific attributes. We present a novel and realistic experimental setup for modeling event streams, where PromptTPP consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across three real user behavior datasets.

Document-level event argument extraction poses new challenges of long input and cross-sentence inference compared to its sentence-level counterpart. However, most prior works focus on capturing the relations between candidate arguments and the event trigger in each event, ignoring two crucial points: a) non-argument contextual clue information; b) the relevance among argument roles. In this paper, we propose a SCPRG (Span-trigger-based Contextual Pooling and latent Role Guidance) model, which contains two novel and effective modules for the above problem. The Span-Trigger-based Contextual Pooling(STCP) adaptively selects and aggregates the information of non-argument clue words based on the context attention weights of specific argument-trigger pairs from pre-trained model. The Role-based Latent Information Guidance (RLIG) module constructs latent role representations, makes them interact through role-interactive encoding to capture semantic relevance, and merges them into candidate arguments. Both STCP and RLIG introduce no more than 1% new parameters compared with the base model and can be easily applied to other event extraction models, which are compact and transplantable. Experiments on two public datasets show that our SCPRG outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods, with 1.13 F1 and 2.64 F1 improvements on RAMS and WikiEvents respectively. Further analyses illustrate the interpretability of our model.

The argument role in event extraction refers to the relation between an event and an argument participating in it. Despite the great progress in event extraction, existing studies still depend on roles pre-defined by domain experts. These studies expose obvious weakness when extending to emerging event types or new domains without available roles. Therefore, more attention and effort needs to be devoted to automatically customizing argument roles. In this paper, we define this essential but under-explored task: open-vocabulary argument role prediction. The goal of this task is to infer a set of argument roles for a given event type. We propose a novel unsupervised framework, RolePred for this task. Specifically, we formulate the role prediction problem as an in-filling task and construct prompts for a pre-trained language model to generate candidate roles. By extracting and analyzing the candidate arguments, the event-specific roles are further merged and selected. To standardize the research of this task, we collect a new event extraction dataset from WikiPpedia including 142 customized argument roles with rich semantics. On this dataset, RolePred outperforms the existing methods by a large margin. Source code and dataset are available on our GitHub repository: https://github.com/yzjiao/RolePred

Speech Event Extraction (SpeechEE) is a challenging task that lies at the intersection of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and Natural Language Processing (NLP), requiring the identification of structured event information from spoken language. In this work, we present a modular, pipeline-based SpeechEE framework that integrates high-performance ASR with semantic search-enhanced prompting of Large Language Models (LLMs). Our system first classifies speech segments likely to contain events using a hybrid filtering mechanism including rule-based, BERT-based, and LLM-based models. It then employs few-shot LLM prompting, dynamically enriched via semantic similarity retrieval, to identify event triggers and extract corresponding arguments. We evaluate the pipeline using multiple LLMs (Llama3-8B, GPT-4o-mini, and o1-mini) highlighting significant performance gains with o1-mini, which achieves 63.3% F1 on trigger classification and 27.8% F1 on argument classification, outperforming prior benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that pipeline approaches, when empowered by retrieval-augmented LLMs, can rival or exceed end-to-end systems while maintaining interpretability and modularity. This work provides practical insights into LLM-driven event extraction and opens pathways for future hybrid models combining textual and acoustic features.

The primary goal of drug safety researchers and regulators is to promptly identify adverse drug reactions. Doing so may in turn prevent or reduce the harm to patients and ultimately improve public health. Evaluating and monitoring drug safety (i.e., pharmacovigilance) involves analyzing an ever growing collection of spontaneous reports from health professionals, physicians, and pharmacists, and information voluntarily submitted by patients. In this scenario, facilitating analysis of such reports via automation has the potential to rapidly identify safety signals. Unfortunately, public resources for developing natural language models for this task are scant. We present PHEE, a novel dataset for pharmacovigilance comprising over 5000 annotated events from medical case reports and biomedical literature, making it the largest such public dataset to date. We describe the hierarchical event schema designed to provide coarse and fine-grained information about patients' demographics, treatments and (side) effects. Along with the discussion of the dataset, we present a thorough experimental evaluation of current state-of-the-art approaches for biomedical event extraction, point out their limitations, and highlight open challenges to foster future research in this area.

In this paper, we cast the problem of task underspecification in causal terms, and develop a method for empirical measurement of spurious associations between gender and gender-neutral entities for unmodified large language models, detecting previously unreported spurious correlations. We then describe a lightweight method to exploit the resulting spurious associations for prediction task uncertainty classification, achieving over 90% accuracy on a Winogender Schemas challenge set. Finally, we generalize our approach to address a wider range of prediction tasks and provide open-source demos for each method described here.

In this work, we present the first dataset, MailEx, for performing event extraction from conversational email threads. To this end, we first proposed a new taxonomy covering 10 event types and 76 arguments in the email domain. Our final dataset includes 1.5K email threads and ~4K emails, which are annotated with totally ~8K event instances. To understand the task challenges, we conducted a series of experiments comparing three types of approaches, i.e., fine-tuned sequence labeling, fine-tuned generative extraction, and few-shot in-context learning. Our results showed that the task of email event extraction is far from being addressed, due to challenges lying in, e.g., extracting non-continuous, shared trigger spans, extracting non-named entity arguments, and modeling the email conversational history. Our work thus suggests more future investigations in this domain-specific event extraction task.

We investigate a new commonsense inference task: given an event described in a short free-form text ("X drinks coffee in the morning"), a system reasons about the likely intents ("X wants to stay awake") and reactions ("X feels alert") of the event's participants. To support this study, we construct a new crowdsourced corpus of 25,000 event phrases covering a diverse range of everyday events and situations. We report baseline performance on this task, demonstrating that neural encoder-decoder models can successfully compose embedding representations of previously unseen events and reason about the likely intents and reactions of the event participants. In addition, we demonstrate how commonsense inference on people's intents and reactions can help unveil the implicit gender inequality prevalent in modern movie scripts.

Cross-lingual transfer-learning is widely used in Event Extraction for low-resource languages and involves a Multilingual Language Model that is trained in a source language and applied to the target language. This paper studies whether the typological similarity between source and target languages impacts the performance of cross-lingual transfer, an under-explored topic. We first focus on Basque as the target language, which is an ideal target language because it is typologically different from surrounding languages. Our experiments on three Event Extraction tasks show that the shared linguistic characteristic between source and target languages does have an impact on transfer quality. Further analysis of 72 language pairs reveals that for tasks that involve token classification such as entity and event trigger identification, common writing script and morphological features produce higher quality cross-lingual transfer. In contrast, for tasks involving structural prediction like argument extraction, common word order is the most relevant feature. In addition, we show that when increasing the training size, not all the languages scale in the same way in the cross-lingual setting. To perform the experiments we introduce EusIE, an event extraction dataset for Basque, which follows the Multilingual Event Extraction dataset (MEE). The dataset and code are publicly available.

Digital Twins (DT) are a promising concept in cyber-physical systems research due to their advanced features including monitoring and automated reasoning. Semantic technologies such as Knowledge Graphs (KG) are recently being utilized in DTs especially for information modelling. Building on this move, this paper proposes a pipeline for semantic association rule learning in DTs using KGs and time series data. In addition to this initial pipeline, we also propose new semantic association rule criterion. The approach is evaluated on an industrial water network scenario. Initial evaluation shows that the proposed approach is able to learn a high number of association rules with semantic information which are more generalizable. The paper aims to set a foundation for further work on using semantic association rule learning especially in the context of industrial applications.

This paper presents LEMONADE, a large-scale conflict event dataset comprising 39,786 events across 20 languages and 171 countries, with extensive coverage of region-specific entities. LEMONADE is based on a partially reannotated subset of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), which has documented global conflict events for over a decade. To address the challenge of aggregating multilingual sources for global event analysis, we introduce abstractive event extraction (AEE) and its subtask, abstractive entity linking (AEL). Unlike conventional span-based event extraction, our approach detects event arguments and entities through holistic document understanding and normalizes them across the multilingual dataset. We evaluate various large language models (LLMs) on these tasks, adapt existing zero-shot event extraction systems, and benchmark supervised models. Additionally, we introduce ZEST, a novel zero-shot retrieval-based system for AEL. Our best zero-shot system achieves an end-to-end F1 score of 58.3%, with LLMs outperforming specialized event extraction models such as GoLLIE. For entity linking, ZEST achieves an F1 score of 45.7%, significantly surpassing OneNet, a state-of-the-art zero-shot baseline that achieves only 23.7%. However, these zero-shot results lag behind the best supervised systems by 20.1% and 37.0% in the end-to-end and AEL tasks, respectively, highlighting the need for further research.

Event argument extraction (EAE) identifies event arguments and their specific roles for a given event. Recent advancement in generation-based EAE models has shown great performance and generalizability over classification-based models. However, existing generation-based EAE models mostly focus on problem re-formulation and prompt design, without incorporating additional information that has been shown to be effective for classification-based models, such as the abstract meaning representation (AMR) of the input passages. Incorporating such information into generation-based models is challenging due to the heterogeneous nature of the natural language form prevalently used in generation-based models and the structured form of AMRs. In this work, we study strategies to incorporate AMR into generation-based EAE models. We propose AMPERE, which generates AMR-aware prefixes for every layer of the generation model. Thus, the prefix introduces AMR information to the generation-based EAE model and then improves the generation. We also introduce an adjusted copy mechanism to AMPERE to help overcome potential noises brought by the AMR graph. Comprehensive experiments and analyses on ACE2005 and ERE datasets show that AMPERE can get 4% - 10% absolute F1 score improvements with reduced training data and it is in general powerful across different training sizes.

Information retrieval in real-time search presents unique challenges distinct from those encountered in classical web search. These challenges are particularly pronounced due to the rapid change of user search intent, which is influenced by the occurrence and evolution of breaking news events, such as earthquakes, elections, and wars. Previous dense retrieval methods, which primarily focused on static semantic representation, lack the capacity to capture immediate search intent, leading to inferior performance in retrieving the most recent event-related documents in time-sensitive scenarios. To address this issue, this paper expands the query with event information that represents real-time search intent. The Event information is then integrated with the query through a cross-attention mechanism, resulting in a time-context query representation. We further enhance the model's capacity for event representation through multi-task training. Since publicly available datasets such as MS-MARCO do not contain any event information on the query side and have few time-sensitive queries, we design an automatic data collection and annotation pipeline to address this issue, which includes ModelZoo-based Coarse Annotation and LLM-driven Fine Annotation processes. In addition, we share the training tricks such as two-stage training and hard negative sampling. Finally, we conduct a set of offline experiments on a million-scale production dataset to evaluate our approach and deploy an A/B testing in a real online system to verify the performance. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Entities and events are crucial to natural language reasoning and common in procedural texts. Existing work has focused either exclusively on entity state tracking (e.g., whether a pan is hot) or on event reasoning (e.g., whether one would burn themselves by touching the pan), while these two tasks are often causally related. We propose CREPE, the first benchmark on causal reasoning of event plausibility and entity states. We show that most language models, including GPT-3, perform close to chance at .35 F1, lagging far behind human at .87 F1. We boost model performance to .59 F1 by creatively representing events as programming languages while prompting language models pretrained on code. By injecting the causal relations between entities and events as intermediate reasoning steps in our representation, we further boost the performance to .67 F1. Our findings indicate not only the challenge that CREPE brings for language models, but also the efficacy of code-like prompting combined with chain-of-thought prompting for multihop event reasoning.

Despite the successful application of Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) for tasks such as dynamic node classification and link prediction, they still perform poorly on the task of dynamic node affinity prediction -- where the goal is to predict 'how much' two nodes will interact in the future. In fact, simple heuristic approaches such as persistent forecasts and moving averages over ground-truth labels significantly and consistently outperform TGNs. Building on this observation, we find that computing heuristics over messages is an equally competitive approach, outperforming TGN and all current temporal graph (TG) models on dynamic node affinity prediction. In this paper, we prove that no formulation of TGN can represent persistent forecasting or moving averages over messages, and propose to enhance the expressivity of TGNs by adding source-target identification to each interaction event message. We show that this modification is required to represent persistent forecasting, moving averages, and the broader class of autoregressive models over messages. Our proposed method, TGNv2, significantly outperforms TGN and all current TG models on all Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) dynamic node affinity prediction datasets.

We address the problem of self-supervised learning on discrete event sequences generated by real-world users. Self-supervised learning incorporates complex information from the raw data in low-dimensional fixed-length vector representations that could be easily applied in various downstream machine learning tasks. In this paper, we propose a new method "CoLES", which adapts contrastive learning, previously used for audio and computer vision domains, to the discrete event sequences domain in a self-supervised setting. We deployed CoLES embeddings based on sequences of transactions at the large European financial services company. Usage of CoLES embeddings significantly improves the performance of the pre-existing models on downstream tasks and produces significant financial gains, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars yearly. We also evaluated CoLES on several public event sequences datasets and showed that CoLES representations consistently outperform other methods on different downstream tasks.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Evaluating anomaly detection algorithms in time series data is critical as inaccuracies can lead to flawed decision-making in various domains where real-time analytics and data-driven strategies are essential. Traditional performance metrics assume iid data and fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and specific characteristics of time series anomalies, such as early and delayed detections. We introduce Proximity-Aware Time series anomaly Evaluation (PATE), a novel evaluation metric that incorporates the temporal relationship between prediction and anomaly intervals. PATE uses proximity-based weighting considering buffer zones around anomaly intervals, enabling a more detailed and informed assessment of a detection. Using these weights, PATE computes a weighted version of the area under the Precision and Recall curve. Our experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets show the superiority of PATE in providing more sensible and accurate evaluations than other evaluation metrics. We also tested several state-of-the-art anomaly detectors across various benchmark datasets using the PATE evaluation scheme. The results show that a common metric like Point-Adjusted F1 Score fails to characterize the detection performances well, and that PATE is able to provide a more fair model comparison. By introducing PATE, we redefine the understanding of model efficacy that steers future studies toward developing more effective and accurate detection models.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities, but still struggle with processing extensive contexts, limiting their ability to maintain coherence and accuracy over long sequences. In contrast, the human brain excels at organising and retrieving episodic experiences across vast temporal scales, spanning a lifetime. In this work, we introduce EM-LLM, a novel approach that integrates key aspects of human episodic memory and event cognition into LLMs, enabling them to effectively handle practically infinite context lengths while maintaining computational efficiency. EM-LLM organises sequences of tokens into coherent episodic events using a combination of Bayesian surprise and graph-theoretic boundary refinement in an on-line fashion. When needed, these events are retrieved through a two-stage memory process, combining similarity-based and temporally contiguous retrieval for efficient and human-like access to relevant information. Experiments on the LongBench dataset demonstrate EM-LLM's superior performance, outperforming the state-of-the-art InfLLM model with an overall relative improvement of 4.3% across various tasks, including a 33% improvement on the PassageRetrieval task. Furthermore, our analysis reveals strong correlations between EM-LLM's event segmentation and human-perceived events, suggesting a bridge between this artificial system and its biological counterpart. This work not only advances LLM capabilities in processing extended contexts but also provides a computational framework for exploring human memory mechanisms, opening new avenues for interdisciplinary research in AI and cognitive science.

Activity and property prediction models are the central workhorses in drug discovery and materials sciences, but currently they have to be trained or fine-tuned for new tasks. Without training or fine-tuning, scientific language models could be used for such low-data tasks through their announced zero- and few-shot capabilities. However, their predictive quality at activity prediction is lacking. In this work, we envision a novel type of activity prediction model that is able to adapt to new prediction tasks at inference time, via understanding textual information describing the task. To this end, we propose a new architecture with separate modules for chemical and natural language inputs, and a contrastive pre-training objective on data from large biochemical databases. In extensive experiments, we show that our method CLAMP yields improved predictive performance on few-shot learning benchmarks and zero-shot problems in drug discovery. We attribute the advances of our method to the modularized architecture and to our pre-training objective.

We introduce Bayesian Poisson Tucker decomposition (BPTD) for modeling country--country interaction event data. These data consist of interaction events of the form "country i took action a toward country j at time t." BPTD discovers overlapping country--community memberships, including the number of latent communities. In addition, it discovers directed community--community interaction networks that are specific to "topics" of action types and temporal "regimes." We show that BPTD yields an efficient MCMC inference algorithm and achieves better predictive performance than related models. We also demonstrate that it discovers interpretable latent structure that agrees with our knowledge of international relations.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS.

Large language models (LLMs) can perform a new task by merely conditioning on task instructions and a few input-output examples, without optimizing any parameters. This is called In-Context Learning (ICL). In-context Information Extraction (IE) has recently garnered attention in the research community. However, the performance of In-context IE generally lags behind the state-of-the-art supervised expert models. We highlight a key reason for this shortfall: underspecified task description. The limited-length context struggles to thoroughly express the intricate IE task instructions and various edge cases, leading to misalignment in task comprehension with humans. In this paper, we propose a Guideline Learning (GL) framework for In-context IE which reflectively learns and follows guidelines. During the learning phrase, GL automatically synthesizes a set of guidelines based on a few error cases, and during inference, GL retrieves helpful guidelines for better ICL. Moreover, we propose a self-consistency-based active learning method to enhance the efficiency of GL. Experiments on event extraction and relation extraction show that GL can significantly improve the performance of in-context IE.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Event log analysis is an important task that security professionals undertake. Event logs record key information on activities that occur on computing devices, and due to the substantial number of events generated, they consume a large amount of time and resources to analyse. This demanding and repetitive task is also prone to errors. To address these concerns, researchers have developed automated techniques to improve the event log analysis process. Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated the ability to successfully perform a wide range of tasks that individuals would usually partake in, to high standards, and at a pace and degree of complexity that outperform humans. Due to this, researchers are rapidly investigating the use of LLMs for event log analysis. This includes fine-tuning, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and in-context learning, which affect performance. These works demonstrate good progress, yet there is a need to understand the developing body of knowledge, identify commonalities between works, and identify key challenges and potential solutions to further developments in this domain. This paper aims to survey LLM-based event log analysis techniques, providing readers with an in-depth overview of the domain, gaps identified in previous research, and concluding with potential avenues to explore in future.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Recent works in Event Argument Extraction (EAE) have focused on improving model generalizability to cater to new events and domains. However, standard benchmarking datasets like ACE and ERE cover less than 40 event types and 25 entity-centric argument roles. Limited diversity and coverage hinder these datasets from adequately evaluating the generalizability of EAE models. In this paper, we first contribute by creating a large and diverse EAE ontology. This ontology is created by transforming FrameNet, a comprehensive semantic role labeling (SRL) dataset for EAE, by exploiting the similarity between these two tasks. Then, exhaustive human expert annotations are collected to build the ontology, concluding with 115 events and 220 argument roles, with a significant portion of roles not being entities. We utilize this ontology to further introduce GENEVA, a diverse generalizability benchmarking dataset comprising four test suites, aimed at evaluating models' ability to handle limited data and unseen event type generalization. We benchmark six EAE models from various families. The results show that owing to non-entity argument roles, even the best-performing model can only achieve 39% F1 score, indicating how GENEVA provides new challenges for generalization in EAE. Overall, our large and diverse EAE ontology can aid in creating more comprehensive future resources, while GENEVA is a challenging benchmarking dataset encouraging further research for improving generalizability in EAE. The code and data can be found at https://github.com/PlusLabNLP/GENEVA.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Anomaly detection in time series is essential for industrial monitoring and environmental sensing, yet distinguishing anomalies from complex patterns remains challenging. Existing methods like the Anomaly Transformer and DCdetector have progressed, but they face limitations such as sensitivity to short-term contexts and inefficiency in noisy, non-stationary environments. To overcome these issues, we introduce MAAT, an improved architecture that enhances association discrepancy modeling and reconstruction quality. MAAT features Sparse Attention, efficiently capturing long-range dependencies by focusing on relevant time steps, thereby reducing computational redundancy. Additionally, a Mamba-Selective State Space Model is incorporated into the reconstruction module, utilizing a skip connection and Gated Attention to improve anomaly localization and detection performance. Extensive experiments show that MAAT significantly outperforms previous methods, achieving better anomaly distinguishability and generalization across various time series applications, setting a new standard for unsupervised time series anomaly detection in real-world scenarios.

Disease risk prediction has attracted increasing attention in the field of modern healthcare, especially with the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Electronic health records (EHRs), which contain heterogeneous patient information, are widely used in disease risk prediction tasks. One challenge of applying AI models for risk prediction lies in generating interpretable evidence to support the prediction results while retaining the prediction ability. In order to address this problem, we propose the method of jointly embedding words and labels whereby attention modules learn the weights of words from medical notes according to their relevance to the names of risk prediction labels. This approach boosts interpretability by employing an attention mechanism and including the names of prediction tasks in the model. However, its application is only limited to the handling of textual inputs such as medical notes. In this paper, we propose a label dependent attention model LDAM to 1) improve the interpretability by exploiting Clinical-BERT (a biomedical language model pre-trained on a large clinical corpus) to encode biomedically meaningful features and labels jointly; 2) extend the idea of joint embedding to the processing of time-series data, and develop a multi-modal learning framework for integrating heterogeneous information from medical notes and time-series health status indicators. To demonstrate our method, we apply LDAM to the MIMIC-III dataset to predict different disease risks. We evaluate our method both quantitatively and qualitatively. Specifically, the predictive power of LDAM will be shown, and case studies will be carried out to illustrate its interpretability.

Financial organizations collect a huge amount of data about clients that typically has a temporal (sequential) structure and is collected from various sources (modalities). Due to privacy issues, there are no large-scale open-source multimodal datasets of event sequences, which significantly limits the research in this area. In this paper, we present the industrial-scale publicly available multimodal banking dataset, MBD, that contains more than 1.5M corporate clients with several modalities: 950M bank transactions, 1B geo position events, 5M embeddings of dialogues with technical support and monthly aggregated purchases of four bank's products. All entries are properly anonymized from real proprietary bank data. Using this dataset, we introduce a novel benchmark with two business tasks: campaigning (purchase prediction in the next month) and matching of clients. We provide numerical results that demonstrate the superiority of our multi-modal baselines over single-modal techniques for each task. As a result, the proposed dataset can open new perspectives and facilitate the future development of practically important large-scale multimodal algorithms for event sequences. HuggingFace Link: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ai-lab/MBD Github Link: https://github.com/Dzhambo/MBD

In e-commerce industry, user behavior sequence data has been widely used in many business units such as search and merchandising to improve their products. However, it is rarely used in financial services not only due to its 3V characteristics - i.e. Volume, Velocity and Variety - but also due to its unstructured nature. In this paper, we propose a Financial Service scenario Deep learning based Behavior data representation method for Clustering (FinDeepBehaviorCluster) to detect fraudulent transactions. To utilize the behavior sequence data, we treat click stream data as event sequence, use time attention based Bi-LSTM to learn the sequence embedding in an unsupervised fashion, and combine them with intuitive features generated by risk experts to form a hybrid feature representation. We also propose a GPU powered HDBSCAN (pHDBSCAN) algorithm, which is an engineering optimization for the original HDBSCAN algorithm based on FAISS project, so that clustering can be carried out on hundreds of millions of transactions within a few minutes. The computation efficiency of the algorithm has increased 500 times compared with the original implementation, which makes flash fraud pattern detection feasible. Our experimental results show that the proposed FinDeepBehaviorCluster framework is able to catch missed fraudulent transactions with considerable business values. In addition, rule extraction method is applied to extract patterns from risky clusters using intuitive features, so that narrative descriptions can be attached to the risky clusters for case investigation, and unknown risk patterns can be mined for real-time fraud detection. In summary, FinDeepBehaviorCluster as a complementary risk management strategy to the existing real-time fraud detection engine, can further increase our fraud detection and proactive risk defense capabilities.

In this study, we investigate in-context learning (ICL) in document-level event argument extraction (EAE) to alleviate the dependency on large-scale labeled data for this task. We introduce the Heuristic-Driven Link-of-Analogy (HD-LoA) prompting to address the challenge of example selection and to develop a prompting strategy tailored for EAE. Specifically, we hypothesize and validate that LLMs learn task-specific heuristics from demonstrations via ICL. Building upon this hypothesis, we introduce an explicit heuristic-driven demonstration construction approach, which transforms the haphazard example selection process into a methodical method that emphasizes task heuristics. Additionally, inspired by the analogical reasoning of human, we propose the link-of-analogy prompting, which enables LLMs to process new situations by drawing analogies to known situations, enhancing their performance on unseen classes beyond limited ICL examples. Experiments show that our method outperforms existing prompting methods and few-shot supervised learning methods on document-level EAE datasets. Additionally, the HD-LoA prompting shows effectiveness in diverse tasks like sentiment analysis and natural language inference, demonstrating its broad adaptability.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

Many tasks in natural language processing require the extraction of relationship information for a given condition, such as event argument extraction, relation extraction, and task-oriented semantic parsing. Recent works usually propose sophisticated models for each task independently and pay less attention to the commonality of these tasks and to have a unified framework for all the tasks. In this work, we propose to take a unified view of all these tasks and introduce TAGPRIME to address relational structure extraction problems. TAGPRIME is a sequence tagging model that appends priming words about the information of the given condition (such as an event trigger) to the input text. With the self-attention mechanism in pre-trained language models, the priming words make the output contextualized representations contain more information about the given condition, and hence become more suitable for extracting specific relationships for the condition. Extensive experiments and analyses on three different tasks that cover ten datasets across five different languages demonstrate the generality and effectiveness of TAGPRIME.

Constructing a timeline requires identifying the chronological order of events in an article. In prior timeline construction datasets, temporal orders are typically annotated by either event-to-time anchoring or event-to-event pairwise ordering, both of which suffer from missing temporal information. To mitigate the issue, we develop a new evaluation dataset, TimeSET, consisting of single-document timelines with document-level order annotation. TimeSET features saliency-based event selection and partial ordering, which enable a practical annotation workload. Aiming to build better automatic timeline construction systems, we propose a novel evaluation framework to compare multiple task formulations with TimeSET by prompting open LLMs, i.e., Llama 2 and Flan-T5. Considering that identifying temporal orders of events is a core subtask in timeline construction, we further benchmark open LLMs on existing event temporal ordering datasets to gain a robust understanding of their capabilities. Our experiments show that (1) NLI formulation with Flan-T5 demonstrates a strong performance among others, while (2) timeline construction and event temporal ordering are still challenging tasks for few-shot LLMs. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/kimihiroh/timeset.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge, therefore, accident analysis and prediction has been a topic of much research over the past few decades. Using small-scale datasets with limited coverage, being dependent on extensive set of data, and being not applicable for real-time purposes are the important shortcomings of the existing studies. To address these challenges, we propose a new solution for real-time traffic accident prediction using easy-to-obtain, but sparse data. Our solution relies on a deep-neural-network model (which we have named DAP, for Deep Accident Prediction); which utilizes a variety of data attributes such as traffic events, weather data, points-of-interest, and time. DAP incorporates multiple components including a recurrent (for time-sensitive data), a fully connected (for time-insensitive data), and a trainable embedding component (to capture spatial heterogeneity). To fill the data gap, we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. By employing the US-Accidents dataset and through an extensive set of experiments across several large cities, we have evaluated our proposal against several baselines. Our analysis and results show significant improvements to predict rare accident events. Further, we have shown the impact of traffic information, time, and points-of-interest data for real-time accident prediction.

Time series analysis is crucial in diverse scenarios. Beyond forecasting, considerable real-world tasks are categorized into classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, underscoring different capabilities termed time series understanding in this paper. While GPT-style models have been positioned as foundation models for time series forecasting, the BERT-style architecture, which has made significant advances in natural language understanding, has not been fully unlocked for time series understanding, possibly attributed to the undesirable dropout of essential elements of BERT. In this paper, inspired by the shared multi-granularity structure between multivariate time series and multisentence documents, we design TimesBERT to learn generic representations of time series including temporal patterns and variate-centric characteristics. In addition to a natural adaptation of masked modeling, we propose a parallel task of functional token prediction to embody vital multi-granularity structures. Our model is pre-trained on 260 billion time points across diverse domains. Leveraging multi-granularity representations, TimesBERT achieves state-of-the-art performance across four typical downstream understanding tasks, outperforming task-specific models and language pre-trained backbones, positioning it as a versatile foundation model for time series understanding.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

The mining of adverse drug events (ADEs) is pivotal in pharmacovigilance, enhancing patient safety by identifying potential risks associated with medications, facilitating early detection of adverse events, and guiding regulatory decision-making. Traditional ADE detection methods are reliable but slow, not easily adaptable to large-scale operations, and offer limited information. With the exponential increase in data sources like social media content, biomedical literature, and Electronic Medical Records (EMR), extracting relevant ADE-related information from these unstructured texts is imperative. Previous ADE mining studies have focused on text-based methodologies, overlooking visual cues, limiting contextual comprehension, and hindering accurate interpretation. To address this gap, we present a MultiModal Adverse Drug Event (MMADE) detection dataset, merging ADE-related textual information with visual aids. Additionally, we introduce a framework that leverages the capabilities of LLMs and VLMs for ADE detection by generating detailed descriptions of medical images depicting ADEs, aiding healthcare professionals in visually identifying adverse events. Using our MMADE dataset, we showcase the significance of integrating visual cues from images to enhance overall performance. This approach holds promise for patient safety, ADE awareness, and healthcare accessibility, paving the way for further exploration in personalized healthcare.

Event Causality Identification (ECI) focuses on extracting causal relations between events in texts. Existing methods for ECI primarily rely on causal features and external knowledge. However, these approaches fall short in two dimensions: (1) causal features between events in a text often lack explicit clues, and (2) external knowledge may introduce bias, while specific problems require tailored analyses. To address these issues, we propose SemDI - a simple and effective Semantic Dependency Inquiry Network for ECI. SemDI captures semantic dependencies within the context using a unified encoder. Then, it utilizes a Cloze Analyzer to generate a fill-in token based on comprehensive context understanding. Finally, this fill-in token is used to inquire about the causal relation between two events. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SemDI, surpassing state-of-the-art methods on three widely used benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/hrlics/SemDI.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

Traditional keyphrase prediction methods predict a single set of keyphrases per document, failing to cater to the diverse needs of users and downstream applications. To bridge the gap, we introduce on-demand keyphrase generation, a novel paradigm that requires keyphrases that conform to specific high-level goals or intents. For this task, we present MetaKP, a large-scale benchmark comprising four datasets, 7500 documents, and 3760 goals across news and biomedical domains with human-annotated keyphrases. Leveraging MetaKP, we design both supervised and unsupervised methods, including a multi-task fine-tuning approach and a self-consistency prompting method with large language models. The results highlight the challenges of supervised fine-tuning, whose performance is not robust to distribution shifts. By contrast, the proposed self-consistency prompting approach greatly improves the performance of large language models, enabling GPT-4o to achieve 0.548 SemF1, surpassing the performance of a fully fine-tuned BART-base model. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of our method to serve as a general NLP infrastructure, exemplified by its application in epidemic event detection from social media.

Event Coreference Resolution (ECR) is the task of linking mentions of the same event either within or across documents. Most mention pairs are not coreferent, yet many that are coreferent can be identified through simple techniques such as lemma matching of the event triggers or the sentences in which they appear. Existing methods for training coreference systems sample from a largely skewed distribution, making it difficult for the algorithm to learn coreference beyond surface matching. Additionally, these methods are intractable because of the quadratic operations needed. To address these challenges, we break the problem of ECR into two parts: a) a heuristic to efficiently filter out a large number of non-coreferent pairs, and b) a training approach on a balanced set of coreferent and non-coreferent mention pairs. By following this approach, we show that we get comparable results to the state of the art on two popular ECR datasets while significantly reducing compute requirements. We also analyze the mention pairs that are "hard" to accurately classify as coreferent or non-coreferent. Code at https://github.com/ahmeshaf/lemma_ce_coref

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

Event coreference resolution is an important research problem with many applications. Despite the recent remarkable success of pretrained language models, we argue that it is still highly beneficial to utilize symbolic features for the task. However, as the input for coreference resolution typically comes from upstream components in the information extraction pipeline, the automatically extracted symbolic features can be noisy and contain errors. Also, depending on the specific context, some features can be more informative than others. Motivated by these observations, we propose a novel context-dependent gated module to adaptively control the information flows from the input symbolic features. Combined with a simple noisy training method, our best models achieve state-of-the-art results on two datasets: ACE 2005 and KBP 2016.

Event Extraction (EE) is an essential information extraction task that aims to extract event-related information from unstructured texts. The paradigm of this task has shifted from conventional classification-based methods to more contemporary question-answering-based (QA-based) approaches. However, in QA-based EE, the quality of the questions dramatically affects the extraction accuracy, and how to generate high-quality questions for QA-based EE remains a challenge. In this work, to tackle this challenge, we suggest four criteria to evaluate the quality of a question and propose a reinforcement learning method, RLQG, for QA-based EE that can generate generalizable, high-quality, and context-dependent questions and provides clear guidance to QA models. The extensive experiments conducted on ACE and RAMS datasets have strongly validated our approach's effectiveness, which also demonstrates its robustness in scenarios with limited training data. The corresponding code of RLQG is released for further research.

We describe HypotheSAEs, a general method to hypothesize interpretable relationships between text data (e.g., headlines) and a target variable (e.g., clicks). HypotheSAEs has three steps: (1) train a sparse autoencoder on text embeddings to produce interpretable features describing the data distribution, (2) select features that predict the target variable, and (3) generate a natural language interpretation of each feature (e.g., "mentions being surprised or shocked") using an LLM. Each interpretation serves as a hypothesis about what predicts the target variable. Compared to baselines, our method better identifies reference hypotheses on synthetic datasets (at least +0.06 in F1) and produces more predictive hypotheses on real datasets (~twice as many significant findings), despite requiring 1-2 orders of magnitude less compute than recent LLM-based methods. HypotheSAEs also produces novel discoveries on two well-studied tasks: explaining partisan differences in Congressional speeches and identifying drivers of engagement with online headlines.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

The vast, complex, and dynamic nature of social message data has posed challenges to social event detection (SED). Despite considerable effort, these challenges persist, often resulting in inadequately expressive message representations (ineffective) and prolonged learning durations (inefficient). In response to the challenges, this work introduces an unsupervised framework, HyperSED (Hyperbolic SED). Specifically, the proposed framework first models social messages into semantic-based message anchors, and then leverages the structure of the anchor graph and the expressiveness of the hyperbolic space to acquire structure- and geometry-aware anchor representations. Finally, HyperSED builds the partitioning tree of the anchor message graph by incorporating differentiable structural information as the reflection of the detected events. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate HyperSED's competitive performance, along with a substantial improvement in efficiency compared to the current state-of-the-art unsupervised paradigm. Statistically, HyperSED boosts incremental SED by an average of 2%, 2%, and 25% in NMI, AMI, and ARI, respectively; enhancing efficiency by up to 37.41 times and at least 12.10 times, illustrating the advancement of the proposed framework. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/XiaoyanWork/HyperSED.

Reasoning over commonsense knowledge bases (CSKB) whose elements are in the form of free-text is an important yet hard task in NLP. While CSKB completion only fills the missing links within the domain of the CSKB, CSKB population is alternatively proposed with the goal of reasoning unseen assertions from external resources. In this task, CSKBs are grounded to a large-scale eventuality (activity, state, and event) graph to discriminate whether novel triples from the eventuality graph are plausible or not. However, existing evaluations on the population task are either not accurate (automatic evaluation with randomly sampled negative examples) or of small scale (human annotation). In this paper, we benchmark the CSKB population task with a new large-scale dataset by first aligning four popular CSKBs, and then presenting a high-quality human-annotated evaluation set to probe neural models' commonsense reasoning ability. We also propose a novel inductive commonsense reasoning model that reasons over graphs. Experimental results show that generalizing commonsense reasoning on unseen assertions is inherently a hard task. Models achieving high accuracy during training perform poorly on the evaluation set, with a large gap between human performance. We will make the data publicly available for future contributions. Codes and data are available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/CSKB-Population.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

The capabilities of natural language models trained on large-scale data have increased immensely over the past few years. Open source libraries such as HuggingFace have made these models easily available and accessible. While prior research has identified biases in large language models, this paper considers biases contained in the most popular versions of these models when applied `out-of-the-box' for downstream tasks. We focus on generative language models as they are well-suited for extracting biases inherited from training data. Specifically, we conduct an in-depth analysis of GPT-2, which is the most downloaded text generation model on HuggingFace, with over half a million downloads per month. We assess biases related to occupational associations for different protected categories by intersecting gender with religion, sexuality, ethnicity, political affiliation, and continental name origin. Using a template-based data collection pipeline, we collect 396K sentence completions made by GPT-2 and find: (i) The machine-predicted jobs are less diverse and more stereotypical for women than for men, especially for intersections; (ii) Intersectional interactions are highly relevant for occupational associations, which we quantify by fitting 262 logistic models; (iii) For most occupations, GPT-2 reflects the skewed gender and ethnicity distribution found in US Labor Bureau data, and even pulls the societally-skewed distribution towards gender parity in cases where its predictions deviate from real labor market observations. This raises the normative question of what language models should learn - whether they should reflect or correct for existing inequalities.

Modality is the linguistic ability to describe events with added information such as how desirable, plausible, or feasible they are. Modality is important for many NLP downstream tasks such as the detection of hedging, uncertainty, speculation, and more. Previous studies that address modality detection in NLP often restrict modal expressions to a closed syntactic class, and the modal sense labels are vastly different across different studies, lacking an accepted standard. Furthermore, these senses are often analyzed independently of the events that they modify. This work builds on the theoretical foundations of the Georgetown Gradable Modal Expressions (GME) work by Rubinstein et al. (2013) to propose an event-based modality detection task where modal expressions can be words of any syntactic class and sense labels are drawn from a comprehensive taxonomy which harmonizes the modal concepts contributed by the different studies. We present experiments on the GME corpus aiming to detect and classify fine-grained modal concepts and associate them with their modified events. We show that detecting and classifying modal expressions is not only feasible, but also improves the detection of modal events in their own right.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, but their potential for anomaly detection remains largely unexplored. Our study investigates whether LLMs can understand and detect anomalies in time series data, focusing on zero-shot and few-shot scenarios. Inspired by conjectures about LLMs' behavior from time series forecasting research, we formulate key hypotheses about LLMs' capabilities in time series anomaly detection. We design and conduct principled experiments to test each of these hypotheses. Our investigation reveals several surprising findings about LLMs for time series: 1. LLMs understand time series better as images rather than as text 2. LLMs did not demonstrate enhanced performance when prompted to engage in explicit reasoning about time series analysis 3. Contrary to common beliefs, LLM's understanding of time series do not stem from their repetition biases or arithmetic abilities 4. LLMs' behaviors and performance in time series analysis vary significantly across different model architectures This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of contemporary LLM capabilities in time series anomaly detection. Our results suggest that while LLMs can understand time series anomalies, many common conjectures based on their reasoning capabilities do not hold. Our code and data are available at `https://github.com/Rose-STL-Lab/AnomLLM/`.

Representation and learning of commonsense knowledge is one of the foundational problems in the quest to enable deep language understanding. This issue is particularly challenging for understanding casual and correlational relationships between events. While this topic has received a lot of interest in the NLP community, research has been hindered by the lack of a proper evaluation framework. This paper attempts to address this problem with a new framework for evaluating story understanding and script learning: the 'Story Cloze Test'. This test requires a system to choose the correct ending to a four-sentence story. We created a new corpus of ~50k five-sentence commonsense stories, ROCStories, to enable this evaluation. This corpus is unique in two ways: (1) it captures a rich set of causal and temporal commonsense relations between daily events, and (2) it is a high quality collection of everyday life stories that can also be used for story generation. Experimental evaluation shows that a host of baselines and state-of-the-art models based on shallow language understanding struggle to achieve a high score on the Story Cloze Test. We discuss these implications for script and story learning, and offer suggestions for deeper language understanding.