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Sep 2

Frontier AI Risk Management Framework in Practice: A Risk Analysis Technical Report

To understand and identify the unprecedented risks posed by rapidly advancing artificial intelligence (AI) models, this report presents a comprehensive assessment of their frontier risks. Drawing on the E-T-C analysis (deployment environment, threat source, enabling capability) from the Frontier AI Risk Management Framework (v1.0) (SafeWork-F1-Framework), we identify critical risks in seven areas: cyber offense, biological and chemical risks, persuasion and manipulation, uncontrolled autonomous AI R\&D, strategic deception and scheming, self-replication, and collusion. Guided by the "AI-45^circ Law," we evaluate these risks using "red lines" (intolerable thresholds) and "yellow lines" (early warning indicators) to define risk zones: green (manageable risk for routine deployment and continuous monitoring), yellow (requiring strengthened mitigations and controlled deployment), and red (necessitating suspension of development and/or deployment). Experimental results show that all recent frontier AI models reside in green and yellow zones, without crossing red lines. Specifically, no evaluated models cross the yellow line for cyber offense or uncontrolled AI R\&D risks. For self-replication, and strategic deception and scheming, most models remain in the green zone, except for certain reasoning models in the yellow zone. In persuasion and manipulation, most models are in the yellow zone due to their effective influence on humans. For biological and chemical risks, we are unable to rule out the possibility of most models residing in the yellow zone, although detailed threat modeling and in-depth assessment are required to make further claims. This work reflects our current understanding of AI frontier risks and urges collective action to mitigate these challenges.

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

The JWST EXCELS survey: direct estimates of C, N, and O abundances in two relatively metal-rich galaxies at $\mathbf{z\simeq5}$

We present a spectroscopic analysis of two star-forming galaxies at z~5 observed with JWST/NIRSpec as part of the Early eXtragalactic Continuum and Emission Line Science (EXCELS) survey. The detection of the C III]lambdalambda1906,09, [O II]lambdalambda3726,29, [O III]lambdalambda4363,5007, and [N II]lambda6584 nebular emission lines enables investigation of the C/O, N/O, and C/N abundance ratios using the temperature-sensitive method. The two galaxies have stellar masses of log(M_{star}/M_{odot} ) = 8.13pm0.09 and log(M_{star}/M_{odot} )=8.52pm0.13 and corresponding metallicities of Z~0.2Z_{odot} and Z~0.3Z_{odot}. These metallicities are somewhat higher than is typical for other z>5 galaxies with similar stellar mass and are in fact comparable to high-redshift analogue galaxies at z~0. Both galaxies display evidence for N/O enhancement with respect to the z~0 sample, with log(N/O)=-1.07pm0.17 and log(N/O)=-0.86pm0.15 respectively. In contrast, we find low C abundances, with log(C/O)=-0.82pm0.22 and log(C/O)=-1.02pm0.22, consistent with the predicted yields of core-collapse supernovae. Following the trend observed in other high-redshift sources, we find that the C/N ratios are lower at fixed O/H compared to the majority of local galaxies. In contrast to the top-heavy IMF invoked in some studies to explain low C/N ratios in metal-poor galaxies, we find, via comparison to chemical evolution models, that a standard or bottom-heavy IMF better explains the observed abundance ratios in more enriched systems due to an increase in N-enrichment from intermediate mass (4-7M_{odot}) stars. Our results demonstrate that robust measurements of CNO abundances with JWST can reveal unique enrichment pathways in galaxies as a function of both metallicity and redshift.

Planck 2018 results. VI. Cosmological parameters

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter LambdaCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base LambdaCDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega_c h^2 = 0.120pm 0.001, baryon density Omega_b h^2 = 0.0224pm 0.0001, scalar spectral index n_s = 0.965pm 0.004, and optical depth tau = 0.054pm 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68,% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95,% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03,% precision, with 100theta_*=1.0411pm 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-LambdaCDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H_0 = (67.4pm 0.5)km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.315pm 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma_8 = 0.811pm 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-LambdaCDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N_{rm eff} = 2.99pm 0.17, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to sum m_nu< 0.12eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -LambdaCDM at over 2,sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-LambdaCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

Gaia Data Release 3: Summary of the content and survey properties

We present the third data release of the European Space Agency's Gaia mission, GDR3. The GDR3 catalogue is the outcome of the processing of raw data collected with the Gaia instruments during the first 34 months of the mission by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium. The GDR3 catalogue contains the same source list, celestial positions, proper motions, parallaxes, and broad band photometry in the G, G_{BP}, and G_{RP} pass-bands already present in the Early Third Data Release. GDR3 introduces an impressive wealth of new data products. More than 33 million objects in the ranges G_{rvs} < 14 and 3100 <T_{eff} <14500 , have new determinations of their mean radial velocities based on data collected by Gaia. We provide G_{rvs} magnitudes for most sources with radial velocities, and a line broadening parameter is listed for a subset of these. Mean Gaia spectra are made available to the community. The GDR3 catalogue includes about 1 million mean spectra from the radial velocity spectrometer, and about 220 million low-resolution blue and red prism photometer BPRP mean spectra. The results of the analysis of epoch photometry are provided for some 10 million sources across 24 variability types. GDR3 includes astrophysical parameters and source class probabilities for about 470 million and 1500 million sources, respectively, including stars, galaxies, and quasars. Orbital elements and trend parameters are provided for some 800,000 astrometric, spectroscopic and eclipsing binaries. More than 150,000 Solar System objects, including new discoveries, with preliminary orbital solutions and individual epoch observations are part of this release. Reflectance spectra derived from the epoch BPRP spectral data are published for about 60\,000 asteroids. Finally, an additional data set is provided, namely the Gaia Andromeda Photometric Survey (abridged)

Selection Function of Clusters in Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data from Cross-Matching with South Pole Telescope Detections

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

Euclid Quick Data Release (Q1): From images to multiwavelength catalogues: the Euclid MERge Processing Function

The Euclid satellite is an ESA mission that was launched in July 2023. \Euclid is working in its regular observing mode with the target of observing an area of 14,000~deg^2 with two instruments, the Visible Camera (VIS) and the Near IR Spectrometer and Photometer (NISP) down to I_{rm E} = 24.5~mag (10, sigma) in the Euclid Wide Survey. Ground-based imaging data in the ugriz bands complement the \Euclid data to enable photo-z determination and VIS PSF modeling for week lensing analysis. Euclid investigates the distance-redshift relation and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies and clusters of galaxies out to zsim 2. Generating the multi-wavelength catalogues from \Euclid and ground-based data is an essential part of the \Euclid data processing system. In the framework of the \Euclid Science Ground Segment (SGS), the aim of the MER Processing Function (PF) pipeline is to detect objects in the \Euclid imaging data, measure their properties, and MERge them into a single multi-wavelength catalogue. The MER PF pipeline performs source detection on both visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) images and offers four different photometric measurements: Kron total flux, aperture photometry on PSF-matched images, template fitting photometry, and S\'ersic fitting photometry. Furthermore, the MER PF pipeline measures a set of ancillary quantities, spanning from morphology to quality flags, to better characterise all detected sources. In this paper, we show how the MER PF pipeline is designed, detailing its main steps, and we show that the pipeline products meet the tight requirements that Euclid aims to achieve on photometric accuracy. We also present the other measurements (e.g. morphology) that are included in the OU-MER output catalogues and we list all output products coming out of the MER PF pipeline.

Planck 2018 results. V. CMB power spectra and likelihoods

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

Demo of the Linguistic Field Data Management and Analysis System -- LiFE

In the proposed demo, we will present a new software - Linguistic Field Data Management and Analysis System - LiFE (https://github.com/kmi-linguistics/life) - an open-source, web-based linguistic data management and analysis application that allows for systematic storage, management, sharing and usage of linguistic data collected from the field. The application allows users to store lexical items, sentences, paragraphs, audio-visual content with rich glossing / annotation; generate interactive and print dictionaries; and also train and use natural language processing tools and models for various purposes using this data. Since its a web-based application, it also allows for seamless collaboration among multiple persons and sharing the data, models, etc with each other. The system uses the Python-based Flask framework and MongoDB in the backend and HTML, CSS and Javascript at the frontend. The interface allows creation of multiple projects that could be shared with the other users. At the backend, the application stores the data in RDF format so as to allow its release as Linked Data over the web using semantic web technologies - as of now it makes use of the OntoLex-Lemon for storing the lexical data and Ligt for storing the interlinear glossed text and then internally linking it to the other linked lexicons and databases such as DBpedia and WordNet. Furthermore it provides support for training the NLP systems using scikit-learn and HuggingFace Transformers libraries as well as make use of any model trained using these libraries - while the user interface itself provides limited options for tuning the system, an externally-trained model could be easily incorporated within the application; similarly the dataset itself could be easily exported into a standard machine-readable format like JSON or CSV that could be consumed by other programs and pipelines.

A Textbook Remedy for Domain Shifts: Knowledge Priors for Medical Image Analysis

While deep networks have achieved broad success in analyzing natural images, when applied to medical scans, they often fail in unexcepted situations. We investigate this challenge and focus on model sensitivity to domain shifts, such as data sampled from different hospitals or data confounded by demographic variables such as sex, race, etc, in the context of chest X-rays and skin lesion images. A key finding we show empirically is that existing visual backbones lack an appropriate prior from the architecture for reliable generalization in these settings. Taking inspiration from medical training, we propose giving deep networks a prior grounded in explicit medical knowledge communicated in natural language. To this end, we introduce Knowledge-enhanced Bottlenecks (KnoBo), a class of concept bottleneck models that incorporates knowledge priors that constrain it to reason with clinically relevant factors found in medical textbooks or PubMed. KnoBo uses retrieval-augmented language models to design an appropriate concept space paired with an automatic training procedure for recognizing the concept. We evaluate different resources of knowledge and recognition architectures on a broad range of domain shifts across 20 datasets. In our comprehensive evaluation with two imaging modalities, KnoBo outperforms fine-tuned models on confounded datasets by 32.4% on average. Finally, evaluations reveal that PubMed is a promising resource for making medical models less sensitive to domain shift, outperforming other resources on both diversity of information and final prediction performance.

Detection of Somali-written Fake News and Toxic Messages on the Social Media Using Transformer-based Language Models

The fact that everyone with a social media account can create and share content, and the increasing public reliance on social media platforms as a news and information source bring about significant challenges such as misinformation, fake news, harmful content, etc. Although human content moderation may be useful to an extent and used by these platforms to flag posted materials, the use of AI models provides a more sustainable, scalable, and effective way to mitigate these harmful contents. However, low-resourced languages such as the Somali language face limitations in AI automation, including scarce annotated training datasets and lack of language models tailored to their unique linguistic characteristics. This paper presents part of our ongoing research work to bridge some of these gaps for the Somali language. In particular, we created two human-annotated social-media-sourced Somali datasets for two downstream applications, fake news \& toxicity classification, and developed a transformer-based monolingual Somali language model (named SomBERTa) -- the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. SomBERTa is then fine-tuned and evaluated on toxic content, fake news and news topic classification datasets. Comparative evaluation analysis of the proposed model against related multilingual models (e.g., AfriBERTa, AfroXLMR, etc) demonstrated that SomBERTa consistently outperformed these comparators in both fake news and toxic content classification tasks while achieving the best average accuracy (87.99%) across all tasks. This research contributes to Somali NLP by offering a foundational language model and a replicable framework for other low-resource languages, promoting digital and AI inclusivity and linguistic diversity.

Token Activation Map to Visually Explain Multimodal LLMs

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are broadly empowering various fields. Despite their advancements, the explainability of MLLMs remains less explored, hindering deeper understanding, model credibility, and effective visualization. Unlike conventional vision models (e.g., CNNs, ViTs, CLIP) that produce a single output, MLLMs generate sequences of tokens progressively, where each generated token depends on the previous context. Therefore, earlier context tokens can introduce redundant activations that interfere with the explanation of later tokens beyond their original information. Existing studies often overlook this issue, but our observations reveal that these redundant correlations can significantly hurt the reliability of explanations. To address this, we propose an estimated causal inference method to mitigate the interference of context to achieve high-quality MLLM explanation, with a novel rank Gaussian filter to further reduce activation noises. We term this method Token Activation Map (TAM) to highlight the consideration of interactions between tokens. TAM also indicates that it excels at explaining multiple tokens of MLLM, which is different from the Class Activation Map (CAM) for a single prediction. Our TAM method significantly outperforms existing SoTA methods, showcasing high-quality visualization results that can be utilized for various scenarios, such as object localization, failure case analysis, video visualization, MLLMs visual comparison, and model understanding (e.g., color, shape, action, location, visual reasoning, multi-turn conversation, etc). The code is available atgithub.com/xmed-lab/TAM.

NESTLE: a No-Code Tool for Statistical Analysis of Legal Corpus

The statistical analysis of large scale legal corpus can provide valuable legal insights. For such analysis one needs to (1) select a subset of the corpus using document retrieval tools, (2) structuralize text using information extraction (IE) systems, and (3) visualize the data for the statistical analysis. Each process demands either specialized tools or programming skills whereas no comprehensive unified "no-code" tools have been available. Especially for IE, if the target information is not predefined in the ontology of the IE system, one needs to build their own system. Here we provide NESTLE, a no code tool for large-scale statistical analysis of legal corpus. With NESTLE, users can search target documents, extract information, and visualize the structured data all via the chat interface with accompanying auxiliary GUI for the fine-level control. NESTLE consists of three main components: a search engine, an end-to-end IE system, and a Large Language Model (LLM) that glues the whole components together and provides the chat interface. Powered by LLM and the end-to-end IE system, NESTLE can extract any type of information that has not been predefined in the IE system opening up the possibility of unlimited customizable statistical analysis of the corpus without writing a single line of code. The use of the custom end-to-end IE system also enables faster and low-cost IE on large scale corpus. We validate our system on 15 Korean precedent IE tasks and 3 legal text classification tasks from LEXGLUE. The comprehensive experiments reveal NESTLE can achieve GPT-4 comparable performance by training the internal IE module with 4 human-labeled, and 192 LLM-labeled examples. The detailed analysis provides the insight on the trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost in building such system.

An Investigation of the Structural Characteristics of the Indian IT Sector and the Capital Goods Sector: An Application of the R Programming in Time Series Decomposition and Forecasting

Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Information Technology and Capital Goods for the period January 2009 till April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA index, NIFTY index and the US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate. We establish by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA index and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY index. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India reflects internal economic growth of India. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.

Image-based Treatment Effect Heterogeneity

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Evaluation of OpenAI o1: Opportunities and Challenges of AGI

This comprehensive study evaluates the performance of OpenAI's o1-preview large language model across a diverse array of complex reasoning tasks, spanning multiple domains, including computer science, mathematics, natural sciences, medicine, linguistics, and social sciences. Through rigorous testing, o1-preview demonstrated remarkable capabilities, often achieving human-level or superior performance in areas ranging from coding challenges to scientific reasoning and from language processing to creative problem-solving. Key findings include: -83.3% success rate in solving complex competitive programming problems, surpassing many human experts. -Superior ability in generating coherent and accurate radiology reports, outperforming other evaluated models. -100% accuracy in high school-level mathematical reasoning tasks, providing detailed step-by-step solutions. -Advanced natural language inference capabilities across general and specialized domains like medicine. -Impressive performance in chip design tasks, outperforming specialized models in areas such as EDA script generation and bug analysis. -Remarkable proficiency in anthropology and geology, demonstrating deep understanding and reasoning in these specialized fields. -Strong capabilities in quantitative investing. O1 has comprehensive financial knowledge and statistical modeling skills. -Effective performance in social media analysis, including sentiment analysis and emotion recognition. The model excelled particularly in tasks requiring intricate reasoning and knowledge integration across various fields. While some limitations were observed, including occasional errors on simpler problems and challenges with certain highly specialized concepts, the overall results indicate significant progress towards artificial general intelligence.

Effect Heterogeneity with Earth Observation in Randomized Controlled Trials: Exploring the Role of Data, Model, and Evaluation Metric Choice

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

How to Detect Network Dependence in Latent Factor Models? A Bias-Corrected CD Test

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Exploring Transformer Backbones for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation

Previous works on Treatment Effect Estimation (TEE) are not in widespread use because they are predominantly theoretical, where strong parametric assumptions are made but untractable for practical application. Recent work uses multilayer perceptron (MLP) for modeling casual relationships, however, MLPs lag far behind recent advances in ML methodology, which limits their applicability and generalizability. To extend beyond the single domain formulation and towards more realistic learning scenarios, we explore model design spaces beyond MLPs, i.e., transformer backbones, which provide flexibility where attention layers govern interactions among treatments and covariates to exploit structural similarities of potential outcomes for confounding control. Through careful model design, Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) is proposed. We show empirically that TransTEE can: (1) serve as a general purpose treatment effect estimator that significantly outperforms competitive baselines in a variety of challenging TEE problems (e.g., discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments) and is applicable to both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of structural data (e.g., texts, graphs); (2) yield multiple advantages: compatibility with propensity score modeling, parameter efficiency, robustness to continuous treatment value distribution shifts, explainable in covariate adjustment, and real-world utility in auditing pre-trained language models

BanglishRev: A Large-Scale Bangla-English and Code-mixed Dataset of Product Reviews in E-Commerce

This work presents the BanglishRev Dataset, the largest e-commerce product review dataset to date for reviews written in Bengali, English, a mixture of both and Banglish, Bengali words written with English alphabets. The dataset comprises of 1.74 million written reviews from 3.2 million ratings information collected from a total of 128k products being sold in online e-commerce platforms targeting the Bengali population. It includes an extensive array of related metadata for each of the reviews including the rating given by the reviewer, date the review was posted and date of purchase, number of likes, dislikes, response from the seller, images associated with the review etc. With sentiment analysis being the most prominent usage of review datasets, experimentation with a binary sentiment analysis model with the review rating serving as an indicator of positive or negative sentiment was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the large amount of data presented in BanglishRev for sentiment analysis tasks. A BanglishBERT model is trained on the data from BanglishRev with reviews being considered labeled positive if the rating is greater than 3 and negative if the rating is less than or equal to 3. The model is evaluated by being testing against a previously published manually annotated dataset for e-commerce reviews written in a mixture of Bangla, English and Banglish. The experimental model achieved an exceptional accuracy of 94\% and F1 score of 0.94, demonstrating the dataset's efficacy for sentiment analysis. Some of the intriguing patterns and observations seen within the dataset and future research directions where the dataset can be utilized is also discussed and explored. The dataset can be accessed through https://huggingface.co/datasets/BanglishRev/bangla-english-and-code-mixed-ecommerce-review-dataset.

Improved Robustness for Deep Learning-based Segmentation of Multi-Center Myocardial Perfusion MRI Datasets Using Data Adaptive Uncertainty-guided Space-time Analysis

Background. Fully automatic analysis of myocardial perfusion MRI datasets enables rapid and objective reporting of stress/rest studies in patients with suspected ischemic heart disease. Developing deep learning techniques that can analyze multi-center datasets despite limited training data and variations in software and hardware is an ongoing challenge. Methods. Datasets from 3 medical centers acquired at 3T (n = 150 subjects) were included: an internal dataset (inD; n = 95) and two external datasets (exDs; n = 55) used for evaluating the robustness of the trained deep neural network (DNN) models against differences in pulse sequence (exD-1) and scanner vendor (exD-2). A subset of inD (n = 85) was used for training/validation of a pool of DNNs for segmentation, all using the same spatiotemporal U-Net architecture and hyperparameters but with different parameter initializations. We employed a space-time sliding-patch analysis approach that automatically yields a pixel-wise "uncertainty map" as a byproduct of the segmentation process. In our approach, a given test case is segmented by all members of the DNN pool and the resulting uncertainty maps are leveraged to automatically select the "best" one among the pool of solutions. Results. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach performed similarly to the established approach on the internal dataset (p = n.s.) whereas it significantly outperformed on the external datasets (p < 0.005 for exD-1 and exD-2). Moreover, the number of image series with "failed" segmentation was significantly lower for the proposed vs. the established approach (4.3% vs. 17.1%, p < 0.0005). Conclusions. The proposed DAUGS analysis approach has the potential to improve the robustness of deep learning methods for segmentation of multi-center stress perfusion datasets with variations in the choice of pulse sequence, site location or scanner vendor.