Daily Papers

Dialogue Act Recognition (DAR) is a challenging problem in dialogue interpretation, which aims to attach semantic labels to utterances and characterize the speaker's intention. Currently, many existing approaches formulate the DAR problem ranging from multi-classification to structured prediction, which suffer from handcrafted feature extensions and attentive contextual structural dependencies. In this paper, we consider the problem of DAR from the viewpoint of extending richer Conditional Random Field (CRF) structural dependencies without abandoning end-to-end training. We incorporate hierarchical semantic inference with memory mechanism on the utterance modeling. We then extend structured attention network to the linear-chain conditional random field layer which takes into account both contextual utterances and corresponding dialogue acts. The extensive experiments on two major benchmark datasets Switchboard Dialogue Act (SWDA) and Meeting Recorder Dialogue Act (MRDA) datasets show that our method achieves better performance than other state-of-the-art solutions to the problem. It is a remarkable fact that our method is nearly close to the human annotator's performance on SWDA within 2% gap.

In this paper, we propose a variety of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based models for sequence tagging. These models include LSTM networks, bidirectional LSTM (BI-LSTM) networks, LSTM with a Conditional Random Field (CRF) layer (LSTM-CRF) and bidirectional LSTM with a CRF layer (BI-LSTM-CRF). Our work is the first to apply a bidirectional LSTM CRF (denoted as BI-LSTM-CRF) model to NLP benchmark sequence tagging data sets. We show that the BI-LSTM-CRF model can efficiently use both past and future input features thanks to a bidirectional LSTM component. It can also use sentence level tag information thanks to a CRF layer. The BI-LSTM-CRF model can produce state of the art (or close to) accuracy on POS, chunking and NER data sets. In addition, it is robust and has less dependence on word embedding as compared to previous observations.

Dialogue Act recognition associate dialogue acts (i.e., semantic labels) to utterances in a conversation. The problem of associating semantic labels to utterances can be treated as a sequence labeling problem. In this work, we build a hierarchical recurrent neural network using bidirectional LSTM as a base unit and the conditional random field (CRF) as the top layer to classify each utterance into its corresponding dialogue act. The hierarchical network learns representations at multiple levels, i.e., word level, utterance level, and conversation level. The conversation level representations are input to the CRF layer, which takes into account not only all previous utterances but also their dialogue acts, thus modeling the dependency among both, labels and utterances, an important consideration of natural dialogue. We validate our approach on two different benchmark data sets, Switchboard and Meeting Recorder Dialogue Act, and show performance improvement over the state-of-the-art methods by 2.2% and 4.1% absolute points, respectively. It is worth noting that the inter-annotator agreement on Switchboard data set is 84%, and our method is able to achieve the accuracy of about 79% despite being trained on the noisy data.

Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs) contain domain knowledge that can be used for many digital library tasks, such as analyzing citation networks and predicting research trends. Automatic metadata extraction is important to build scalable digital library search engines. Most existing methods are designed for born-digital documents, so they often fail to extract metadata from scanned documents such as for ETDs. Traditional sequence tagging methods mainly rely on text-based features. In this paper, we propose a conditional random field (CRF) model that combines text-based and visual features. To verify the robustness of our model, we extended an existing corpus and created a new ground truth corpus consisting of 500 ETD cover pages with human validated metadata. Our experiments show that CRF with visual features outperformed both a heuristic and a CRF model with only text-based features. The proposed model achieved 81.3%-96% F1 measure on seven metadata fields. The data and source code are publicly available on Google Drive (https://tinyurl.com/y8kxzwrp) and a GitHub repository (https://github.com/lamps-lab/ETDMiner/tree/master/etd_crf), respectively.

Emotion Recognition in Conversation (ERC) has attracted growing attention in recent years as a result of the advancement and implementation of human-computer interface technologies. However, previous approaches to modeling global and local context dependencies lost the diversity of dependency information and do not take the context dependency into account at the classification level. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to dependency modeling driven by Emotional Inertia and Contagion (EmotionIC) for conversational emotion recognition at the feature extraction and classification levels. At the feature extraction level, our designed Identity Masked Multi-head Attention (IM-MHA) captures the identity-based long-distant context in the dialogue to contain the diverse influence of different participants and construct the global emotional atmosphere, while the devised Dialogue-based Gate Recurrent Unit (DialogGRU) that aggregates the emotional tendencies of dyadic dialogue is applied to refine the contextual features with inter- and intra-speaker dependencies. At the classification level, by introducing skip connections in Conditional Random Field (CRF), we elaborate the Skip-chain CRF (SkipCRF) to capture the high-order dependencies within and between speakers, and to emulate the emotional flow of distant participants. Experimental results show that our method can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art models on four benchmark datasets. The ablation studies confirm that our modules can effectively model emotional inertia and contagion.

In this work we address the task of semantic image segmentation with Deep Learning and make three main contributions that are experimentally shown to have substantial practical merit. First, we highlight convolution with upsampled filters, or 'atrous convolution', as a powerful tool in dense prediction tasks. Atrous convolution allows us to explicitly control the resolution at which feature responses are computed within Deep Convolutional Neural Networks. It also allows us to effectively enlarge the field of view of filters to incorporate larger context without increasing the number of parameters or the amount of computation. Second, we propose atrous spatial pyramid pooling (ASPP) to robustly segment objects at multiple scales. ASPP probes an incoming convolutional feature layer with filters at multiple sampling rates and effective fields-of-views, thus capturing objects as well as image context at multiple scales. Third, we improve the localization of object boundaries by combining methods from DCNNs and probabilistic graphical models. The commonly deployed combination of max-pooling and downsampling in DCNNs achieves invariance but has a toll on localization accuracy. We overcome this by combining the responses at the final DCNN layer with a fully connected Conditional Random Field (CRF), which is shown both qualitatively and quantitatively to improve localization performance. Our proposed "DeepLab" system sets the new state-of-art at the PASCAL VOC-2012 semantic image segmentation task, reaching 79.7% mIOU in the test set, and advances the results on three other datasets: PASCAL-Context, PASCAL-Person-Part, and Cityscapes. All of our code is made publicly available online.

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNNs) have recently shown state of the art performance in high level vision tasks, such as image classification and object detection. This work brings together methods from DCNNs and probabilistic graphical models for addressing the task of pixel-level classification (also called "semantic image segmentation"). We show that responses at the final layer of DCNNs are not sufficiently localized for accurate object segmentation. This is due to the very invariance properties that make DCNNs good for high level tasks. We overcome this poor localization property of deep networks by combining the responses at the final DCNN layer with a fully connected Conditional Random Field (CRF). Qualitatively, our "DeepLab" system is able to localize segment boundaries at a level of accuracy which is beyond previous methods. Quantitatively, our method sets the new state-of-art at the PASCAL VOC-2012 semantic image segmentation task, reaching 71.6% IOU accuracy in the test set. We show how these results can be obtained efficiently: Careful network re-purposing and a novel application of the 'hole' algorithm from the wavelet community allow dense computation of neural net responses at 8 frames per second on a modern GPU.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

In this work, we present several deep learning models for the automatic diacritization of Arabic text. Our models are built using two main approaches, viz. Feed-Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), with several enhancements such as 100-hot encoding, embeddings, Conditional Random Field (CRF) and Block-Normalized Gradient (BNG). The models are tested on the only freely available benchmark dataset and the results show that our models are either better or on par with other models, which require language-dependent post-processing steps, unlike ours. Moreover, we show that diacritics in Arabic can be used to enhance the models of NLP tasks such as Machine Translation (MT) by proposing the Translation over Diacritization (ToD) approach.

The neural semi-Markov Conditional Random Field (semi-CRF) framework has demonstrated promise for event-based piano transcription. In this framework, all events (notes or pedals) are represented as closed time intervals tied to specific event types. The neural semi-CRF approach requires an interval scoring matrix that assigns a score for every candidate interval. However, designing an efficient and expressive architecture for scoring intervals is not trivial. This paper introduces a simple method for scoring intervals using scaled inner product operations that resemble how attention scoring is done in transformers. We show theoretically that, due to the special structure from encoding the non-overlapping intervals, under a mild condition, the inner product operations are expressive enough to represent an ideal scoring matrix that can yield the correct transcription result. We then demonstrate that an encoder-only structured non-hierarchical transformer backbone, operating only on a low-time-resolution feature map, is capable of transcribing piano notes and pedals with high accuracy and time precision. The experiment shows that our approach achieves the new state-of-the-art performance across all subtasks in terms of the F1 measure on the Maestro dataset.

Despite the rapid development of natural language processing (NLP) implementation in electronic medical records (EMRs), Chinese EMRs processing remains challenging due to the limited corpus and specific grammatical characteristics, especially for radiology reports. In this study, we designed an NLP pipeline for the direct extraction of clinically relevant features from Chinese radiology reports, which is the first key step in computer-aided radiologic diagnosis. The pipeline was comprised of named entity recognition, synonyms normalization, and relationship extraction to finally derive the radiological features composed of one or more terms. In named entity recognition, we incorporated lexicon into deep learning model bidirectional long short-term memory-conditional random field (BiLSTM-CRF), and the model finally achieved an F1 score of 93.00%. With the extracted radiological features, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and machine learning methods (support vector machine, random forest, decision tree, and logistic regression) were used to build the classifiers for liver cancer prediction. For liver cancer diagnosis, random forest had the highest predictive performance in liver cancer diagnosis (F1 score 86.97%, precision 87.71%, and recall 86.25%). This work was a comprehensive NLP study focusing on Chinese radiology reports and the application of NLP in cancer risk prediction. The proposed NLP pipeline for the radiological feature extraction could be easily implemented in other kinds of Chinese clinical texts and other disease predictive tasks.

In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive framework for developing a machine learning-based SOAP (Subjective, Objective, Assessment, and Plan) classification system without manually SOAP annotated training data or with less manually SOAP annotated training data. The system is composed of the following two parts: 1) Data construction, 2) A neural network-based SOAP classifier, and 3) Transfer learning framework. In data construction, since a manual construction of a large size training dataset is expensive, we propose a rule-based weak labeling method utilizing the structured information of an EHR note. Then, we present a SOAP classifier composed of a pre-trained language model and bi-directional long-short term memory with conditional random field (Bi-LSTM-CRF). Finally, we propose a transfer learning framework that re-uses the trained parameters of the SOAP classifier trained with the weakly labeled dataset for datasets collected from another hospital. The proposed weakly label-based learning model successfully performed SOAP classification (89.99 F1-score) on the notes collected from the target hospital. Otherwise, in the notes collected from other hospitals and departments, the performance dramatically decreased. Meanwhile, we verified that the transfer learning framework is advantageous for inter-hospital adaptation of the model increasing the models' performance in every cases. In particular, the transfer learning approach was more efficient when the manually annotated data size was smaller. We showed that SOAP classification models trained with our weakly labeling algorithm can perform SOAP classification without manually annotated data on the EHR notes from the same hospital. The transfer learning framework helps SOAP classification model's inter-hospital migration with a minimal size of the manually annotated dataset.

Titles of short sections within long documents support readers by guiding their focus towards relevant passages and by providing anchor-points that help to understand the progression of the document. The positive effects of section titles are even more pronounced when measured on readers with less developed reading abilities, for example in communities with limited labeled text resources. We, therefore, aim to develop techniques to generate section titles in low-resource environments. In particular, we present an extractive pipeline for section title generation by first selecting the most salient sentence and then applying deletion-based compression. Our compression approach is based on a Semi-Markov Conditional Random Field that leverages unsupervised word-representations such as ELMo or BERT, eliminating the need for a complex encoder-decoder architecture. The results show that this approach leads to competitive performance with sequence-to-sequence models with high resources, while strongly outperforming it with low resources. In a human-subject study across subjects with varying reading abilities, we find that our section titles improve the speed of completing comprehension tasks while retaining similar accuracy.

In this paper we address the challenge of extracting scientific references from patents. We approach the problem as a sequence labelling task and investigate the merits of BERT models to the extraction of these long sequences. References in patents to scientific literature are relevant to study the connection between science and industry. Most prior work only uses the front-page citations for this analysis, which are provided in the metadata of patent archives. In this paper we build on prior work using Conditional Random Fields (CRF) and Flair for reference extraction. We improve the quality of the training data and train three BERT-based models on the labelled data (BERT, bioBERT, sciBERT). We find that the improved training data leads to a large improvement in the quality of the trained models. In addition, the BERT models beat CRF and Flair, with recall scores around 97% obtained with cross validation. With the best model we label a large collection of 33 thousand patents, extract the citations, and match them to publications in the Web of Science database. We extract 50% more references than with the old training data and methods: 735 thousand references in total. With these patent-publication links, follow-up research will further analyze which types of scientific work lead to inventions.

Named entity recognition (NER) stands as a fundamental and pivotal task within the realm of Natural Language Processing. Particularly within the domain of Biomedical Method NER, this task presents notable challenges, stemming from the continual influx of domain-specific terminologies in scholarly literature. Current research in Biomedical Method (BioMethod) NER suffers from a scarcity of resources, primarily attributed to the intricate nature of methodological concepts, which necessitate a profound understanding for precise delineation. In this study, we propose a novel dataset for biomedical method entity recognition, employing an automated BioMethod entity recognition and information retrieval system to assist human annotation. Furthermore, we comprehensively explore a range of conventional and contemporary open-domain NER methodologies, including the utilization of cutting-edge large-scale language models (LLMs) customised to our dataset. Our empirical findings reveal that the large parameter counts of language models surprisingly inhibit the effective assimilation of entity extraction patterns pertaining to biomedical methods. Remarkably, the approach, leveraging the modestly sized ALBERT model (only 11MB), in conjunction with conditional random fields (CRF), achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

A major challenge in structured prediction is to represent the interdependencies within output structures. When outputs are structured as sequences, linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) are a widely used model class which can learn local dependencies in the output. However, the CRF's Markov assumption makes it impossible for CRFs to represent distributions with nonlocal dependencies, and standard CRFs are unable to respect nonlocal constraints of the data (such as global arity constraints on output labels). We present a generalization of CRFs that can enforce a broad class of constraints, including nonlocal ones, by specifying the space of possible output structures as a regular language L. The resulting regular-constrained CRF (RegCCRF) has the same formal properties as a standard CRF, but assigns zero probability to all label sequences not in L. Notably, RegCCRFs can incorporate their constraints during training, while related models only enforce constraints during decoding. We prove that constrained training is never worse than constrained decoding, and show empirically that it can be substantially better in practice. Additionally, we demonstrate a practical benefit on downstream tasks by incorporating a RegCCRF into a deep neural model for semantic role labeling, exceeding state-of-the-art results on a standard dataset.

Case Report Forms (CRFs) are largely used in medical research as they ensure accuracy, reliability, and validity of results in clinical studies. However, publicly available, wellannotated CRF datasets are scarce, limiting the development of CRF slot filling systems able to fill in a CRF from clinical notes. To mitigate the scarcity of CRF datasets, we propose to take advantage of available datasets annotated for information extraction tasks and to convert them into structured CRFs. We present a semi-automatic conversion methodology, which has been applied to the E3C dataset in two languages (English and Italian), resulting in a new, high-quality dataset for CRF slot filling. Through several experiments on the created dataset, we report that slot filling achieves 59.7% for Italian and 67.3% for English on a closed Large Language Models (zero-shot) and worse performances on three families of open-source models, showing that filling CRFs is challenging even for recent state-of-the-art LLMs. We release the datest at https://huggingface.co/collections/NLP-FBK/e3c-to-crf-67b9844065460cbe42f80166

We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By combining HO-LC-CRFs with SPNs, expressive models over both the output labels and the hidden variables are instantiated while still enabling efficient exact inference. Furthermore, the use of higher-order factors allows us to capture relations of multiple input segments and multiple output labels as often present in real-world data. These relations can not be modelled by the commonly used first-order models and higher-order models with local factors including only a single output label. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models for sequence labeling. In extensive experiments, we outperform other state-of-the-art methods in optical character recognition and achieve competitive results in phone classification.

Estimating probability distribution is one of the core issues in the NLP field. However, in both deep learning (DL) and pre-DL eras, unlike the vast applications of linear-chain CRF in sequence labeling tasks, very few works have applied tree-structure CRF to constituency parsing, mainly due to the complexity and inefficiency of the inside-outside algorithm. This work presents a fast and accurate neural CRF constituency parser. The key idea is to batchify the inside algorithm for loss computation by direct large tensor operations on GPU, and meanwhile avoid the outside algorithm for gradient computation via efficient back-propagation. We also propose a simple two-stage bracketing-then-labeling parsing approach to improve efficiency further. To improve the parsing performance, inspired by recent progress in dependency parsing, we introduce a new scoring architecture based on boundary representation and biaffine attention, and a beneficial dropout strategy. Experiments on PTB, CTB5.1, and CTB7 show that our two-stage CRF parser achieves new state-of-the-art performance on both settings of w/o and w/ BERT, and can parse over 1,000 sentences per second. We release our code at https://github.com/yzhangcs/crfpar.

Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) is a framework for dealing with the logged bandit feedback problem, where the goal is to improve a logging policy using offline data. In this paper, we explore the case where it is possible to deploy learned policies multiple times and acquire new data. We extend the CRM principle and its theory to this scenario, which we call "Sequential Counterfactual Risk Minimization (SCRM)." We introduce a novel counterfactual estimator and identify conditions that can improve the performance of CRM in terms of excess risk and regret rates, by using an analysis similar to restart strategies in accelerated optimization methods. We also provide an empirical evaluation of our method in both discrete and continuous action settings, and demonstrate the benefits of multiple deployments of CRM.

Conditional contrastive learning frameworks consider the conditional sampling procedure that constructs positive or negative data pairs conditioned on specific variables. Fair contrastive learning constructs negative pairs, for example, from the same gender (conditioning on sensitive information), which in turn reduces undesirable information from the learned representations; weakly supervised contrastive learning constructs positive pairs with similar annotative attributes (conditioning on auxiliary information), which in turn are incorporated into the representations. Although conditional contrastive learning enables many applications, the conditional sampling procedure can be challenging if we cannot obtain sufficient data pairs for some values of the conditioning variable. This paper presents Conditional Contrastive Learning with Kernel (CCL-K) that converts existing conditional contrastive objectives into alternative forms that mitigate the insufficient data problem. Instead of sampling data according to the value of the conditioning variable, CCL-K uses the Kernel Conditional Embedding Operator that samples data from all available data and assigns weights to each sampled data given the kernel similarity between the values of the conditioning variable. We conduct experiments using weakly supervised, fair, and hard negatives contrastive learning, showing CCL-K outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

As a step toward better document-level understanding, we explore classification of a sequence of sentences into their corresponding categories, a task that requires understanding sentences in context of the document. Recent successful models for this task have used hierarchical models to contextualize sentence representations, and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) to incorporate dependencies between subsequent labels. In this work, we show that pretrained language models, BERT (Devlin et al., 2018) in particular, can be used for this task to capture contextual dependencies without the need for hierarchical encoding nor a CRF. Specifically, we construct a joint sentence representation that allows BERT Transformer layers to directly utilize contextual information from all words in all sentences. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on four datasets, including a new dataset of structured scientific abstracts.

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as they permit to estimate the probability of weather events by representing the sources of uncertainties and accounting for the day-to-day variability of error growth in the atmosphere. This paper presents a novel approach to obtain a weather forecast model for ensemble forecasting with machine-learning. AIFS-CRPS is a variant of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) developed at ECMWF. Its loss function is based on a proper score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). For the loss, the almost fair CRPS is introduced because it approximately removes the bias in the score due to finite ensemble size yet avoids a degeneracy of the fair CRPS. The trained model is stochastic and can generate as many exchangeable members as desired and computationally feasible in inference. For medium-range forecasts AIFS-CRPS outperforms the physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble for the majority of variables and lead times. For subseasonal forecasts, AIFS-CRPS outperforms the IFS ensemble before calibration and is competitive with the IFS ensemble when forecasts are evaluated as anomalies to remove the influence of model biases.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

We consider the problem of weakly supervised object detection, where the training samples are annotated using only image-level labels that indicate the presence or absence of an object category. In order to model the uncertainty in the location of the objects, we employ a dissimilarity coefficient based probabilistic learning objective. The learning objective minimizes the difference between an annotation agnostic prediction distribution and an annotation aware conditional distribution. The main computational challenge is the complex nature of the conditional distribution, which consists of terms over hundreds or thousands of variables. The complexity of the conditional distribution rules out the possibility of explicitly modeling it. Instead, we exploit the fact that deep learning frameworks rely on stochastic optimization. This allows us to use a state of the art discrete generative model that can provide annotation consistent samples from the conditional distribution. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed approach.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Query reformulation is a well-known problem in Information Retrieval (IR) aimed at enhancing single search successful completion rate by automatically modifying user's input query. Recent methods leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to improve query reformulation, but often generate limited and redundant expansions, potentially constraining their effectiveness in capturing diverse intents. In this paper, we propose GenCRF: a Generative Clustering and Reformulation Framework to capture diverse intentions adaptively based on multiple differentiated, well-generated queries in the retrieval phase for the first time. GenCRF leverages LLMs to generate variable queries from the initial query using customized prompts, then clusters them into groups to distinctly represent diverse intents. Furthermore, the framework explores to combine diverse intents query with innovative weighted aggregation strategies to optimize retrieval performance and crucially integrates a novel Query Evaluation Rewarding Model (QERM) to refine the process through feedback loops. Empirical experiments on the BEIR benchmark demonstrate that GenCRF achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing previous query reformulation SOTAs by up to 12% on nDCG@10. These techniques can be adapted to various LLMs, significantly boosting retriever performance and advancing the field of Information Retrieval.

The recent trend towards Personalized Federated Learning (PFL) has garnered significant attention as it allows for the training of models that are tailored to each client while maintaining data privacy. However, current PFL techniques primarily focus on modeling the conditional distribution heterogeneity (i.e. concept shift), which can result in suboptimal performance when the distribution of input data across clients diverges (i.e. covariate shift). Additionally, these techniques often lack the ability to adapt to unseen data, further limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel approach, FedGMM, which utilizes Gaussian mixture models (GMM) to effectively fit the input data distributions across diverse clients. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation utilizing a federated Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which is solved in closed form and does not assume gradient similarity. Furthermore, FedGMM possesses an additional advantage of adapting to new clients with minimal overhead, and it also enables uncertainty quantification. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method in both PFL classification and novel sample detection.

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

Federated Learning (FL) models often experience client drift caused by heterogeneous data, where the distribution of data differs across clients. To address this issue, advanced research primarily focuses on manipulating the existing gradients to achieve more consistent client models. In this paper, we present an alternative perspective on client drift and aim to mitigate it by generating improved local models. First, we analyze the generalization contribution of local training and conclude that this generalization contribution is bounded by the conditional Wasserstein distance between the data distribution of different clients. Then, we propose FedImpro, to construct similar conditional distributions for local training. Specifically, FedImpro decouples the model into high-level and low-level components, and trains the high-level portion on reconstructed feature distributions. This approach enhances the generalization contribution and reduces the dissimilarity of gradients in FL. Experimental results show that FedImpro can help FL defend against data heterogeneity and enhance the generalization performance of the model.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

Aspect and opinion term extraction is a critical step in Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA). Our study focuses on evaluating transfer learning using pre-trained BERT (Devlin et al., 2018) to classify tokens from hotel reviews in bahasa Indonesia. The primary challenge is the language informality of the review texts. By utilizing transfer learning from a multilingual model, we achieved up to 2% difference on token level F1-score compared to the state-of-the-art Bi-LSTM model with fewer training epochs (3 vs. 200 epochs). The fine-tuned model clearly outperforms the Bi-LSTM model on the entity level. Furthermore, we propose a method to include CRF with auxiliary labels as an output layer for the BERT-based models. The CRF addition further improves the F1-score for both token and entity level.

Conditional diffusion models are powerful generative models that can leverage various types of conditional information, such as class labels, segmentation masks, or text captions. However, in many real-world scenarios, conditional information may be noisy or unreliable due to human annotation errors or weak alignment. In this paper, we propose the Coherence-Aware Diffusion (CAD), a novel method that integrates coherence in conditional information into diffusion models, allowing them to learn from noisy annotations without discarding data. We assume that each data point has an associated coherence score that reflects the quality of the conditional information. We then condition the diffusion model on both the conditional information and the coherence score. In this way, the model learns to ignore or discount the conditioning when the coherence is low. We show that CAD is theoretically sound and empirically effective on various conditional generation tasks. Moreover, we show that leveraging coherence generates realistic and diverse samples that respect conditional information better than models trained on cleaned datasets where samples with low coherence have been discarded.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

Floods wreak havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damages, and uprooting communities, ecosystems and economies. The NASA Impact Flood Detection competition tasked participants with predicting flooded pixels after training with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images in a supervised setting. We propose a semi-supervised learning pseudo-labeling scheme that derives confidence estimates from U-Net ensembles, progressively improving accuracy. Concretely, we use a cyclical approach involving multiple stages (1) training an ensemble model of multiple U-Net architectures with the provided high confidence hand-labeled data and, generated pseudo labels or low confidence labels on the entire unlabeled test dataset, and then, (2) filter out quality generated labels and, (3) combine the generated labels with the previously available high confidence hand-labeled dataset. This assimilated dataset is used for the next round of training ensemble models and the cyclical process is repeated until the performance improvement plateaus. We post process our results with Conditional Random Fields. Our approach sets a new state-of-the-art on the Sentinel-1 dataset with 0.7654 IoU, an impressive improvement over the 0.60 IoU baseline. Our method, which we release with all the code and models, can also be used as an open science benchmark for the Sentinel-1 dataset.

The success of artificial neural networks (ANNs) hinges greatly on the judicious selection of an activation function, introducing non-linearity into network and enabling them to model sophisticated relationships in data. However, the search of activation functions has largely relied on empirical knowledge in the past, lacking theoretical guidance, which has hindered the identification of more effective activation functions. In this work, we offer a proper solution to such issue. Firstly, we theoretically demonstrate the existence of the worst activation function with boundary conditions (WAFBC) from the perspective of information entropy. Furthermore, inspired by the Taylor expansion form of information entropy functional, we propose the Entropy-based Activation Function Optimization (EAFO) methodology. EAFO methodology presents a novel perspective for designing static activation functions in deep neural networks and the potential of dynamically optimizing activation during iterative training. Utilizing EAFO methodology, we derive a novel activation function from ReLU, known as Correction Regularized ReLU (CRReLU). Experiments conducted with vision transformer and its variants on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K datasets demonstrate the superiority of CRReLU over existing corrections of ReLU. Extensive empirical studies on task of large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, CRReLU exhibits superior performance compared to GELU, suggesting its broader potential for practical applications.

In the deep learning (DL) era, parsing models are extremely simplified with little hurt on performance, thanks to the remarkable capability of multi-layer BiLSTMs in context representation. As the most popular graph-based dependency parser due to its high efficiency and performance, the biaffine parser directly scores single dependencies under the arc-factorization assumption, and adopts a very simple local token-wise cross-entropy training loss. This paper for the first time presents a second-order TreeCRF extension to the biaffine parser. For a long time, the complexity and inefficiency of the inside-outside algorithm hinder the popularity of TreeCRF. To address this issue, we propose an effective way to batchify the inside and Viterbi algorithms for direct large matrix operation on GPUs, and to avoid the complex outside algorithm via efficient back-propagation. Experiments and analysis on 27 datasets from 13 languages clearly show that techniques developed before the DL era, such as structural learning (global TreeCRF loss) and high-order modeling are still useful, and can further boost parsing performance over the state-of-the-art biaffine parser, especially for partially annotated training data. We release our code at https://github.com/yzhangcs/crfpar.

The autoregressive nature of large language models (LLMs) limits inference speed. Each forward pass generates only a single token and is often bottlenecked by memory bandwidth. Speculative decoding alleviates this issue using a draft-then-verify approach to accelerate token generation. However, the overhead introduced during the draft phase and the training cost of the draft model limit the efficiency and adaptability of speculative decoding. In this work, we introduce PARallel Draft (PARD), a novel speculative decoding method that enables low-cost adaptation of autoregressive draft models into parallel draft models. PARD enhances inference efficiency by predicting multiple future tokens in a single forward pass of the draft phase, and incorporates a conditional drop token method to accelerate training. Its target-independence property allows a single draft model to be applied to an entire family of different models, minimizing the adaptation cost. Our proposed conditional drop token method can improves draft model training efficiency by 3x. On our optimized inference framework, PARD accelerates LLaMA3.1-8B inference by 4.08x, achieving 311.5 tokens per second.

Syntactic structures used to play a vital role in natural language processing (NLP), but since the deep learning revolution, NLP has been gradually dominated by neural models that do not consider syntactic structures in their design. One vastly successful class of neural models is transformers. When used as an encoder, a transformer produces contextual representation of words in the input sentence. In this work, we propose a new model of contextual word representation, not from a neural perspective, but from a purely syntactic and probabilistic perspective. Specifically, we design a conditional random field that models discrete latent representations of all words in a sentence as well as dependency arcs between them; and we use mean field variational inference for approximate inference. Strikingly, we find that the computation graph of our model resembles transformers, with correspondences between dependencies and self-attention and between distributions over latent representations and contextual embeddings of words. Experiments show that our model performs competitively to transformers on small to medium sized datasets. We hope that our work could help bridge the gap between traditional syntactic and probabilistic approaches and cutting-edge neural approaches to NLP, and inspire more linguistically-principled neural approaches in the future.

Recent approaches for weakly supervised instance segmentations depend on two components: (i) a pseudo label generation model that provides instances which are consistent with a given annotation; and (ii) an instance segmentation model, which is trained in a supervised manner using the pseudo labels as ground-truth. Unlike previous approaches, we explicitly model the uncertainty in the pseudo label generation process using a conditional distribution. The samples drawn from our conditional distribution provide accurate pseudo labels due to the use of semantic class aware unary terms, boundary aware pairwise smoothness terms, and annotation aware higher order terms. Furthermore, we represent the instance segmentation model as an annotation agnostic prediction distribution. In contrast to previous methods, our representation allows us to define a joint probabilistic learning objective that minimizes the dissimilarity between the two distributions. Our approach achieves state of the art results on the PASCAL VOC 2012 data set, outperforming the best baseline by 4.2% mAP@0.5 and 4.8% mAP@0.75.

We introduce a simple but effective unsupervised method for generating realistic and diverse images. We train a class-conditional GAN model without using manually annotated class labels. Instead, our model is conditional on labels automatically derived from clustering in the discriminator's feature space. Our clustering step automatically discovers diverse modes, and explicitly requires the generator to cover them. Experiments on standard mode collapse benchmarks show that our method outperforms several competing methods when addressing mode collapse. Our method also performs well on large-scale datasets such as ImageNet and Places365, improving both image diversity and standard quality metrics, compared to previous methods.

Conventional Computed Tomography (CT) methods require large numbers of noise-free projections for accurate density reconstructions, limiting their applicability to the more complex class of Cone Beam Geometry CT (CBCT) reconstruction. Recently, deep learning methods have been proposed to overcome these limitations, with methods based on neural fields (NF) showing strong performance, by approximating the reconstructed density through a continuous-in-space coordinate based neural network. Our focus is on improving such methods, however, unlike previous work, which requires training an NF from scratch for each new set of projections, we instead propose to leverage anatomical consistencies over different scans by training a single conditional NF on a dataset of projections. We propose a novel conditioning method where local modulations are modeled per patient as a field over the input domain through a Neural Modulation Field (NMF). The resulting Conditional Cone Beam Neural Tomography (CondCBNT) shows improved performance for both high and low numbers of available projections on noise-free and noisy data.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown the ability to produce fluent and cogent content, presenting both productivity opportunities and societal risks. To build trustworthy AI systems, it is imperative to distinguish between machine-generated and human-authored content. The leading zero-shot detector, DetectGPT, showcases commendable performance but is marred by its intensive computational costs. In this paper, we introduce the concept of conditional probability curvature to elucidate discrepancies in word choices between LLMs and humans within a given context. Utilizing this curvature as a foundational metric, we present **Fast-DetectGPT**, an optimized zero-shot detector, which substitutes DetectGPT's perturbation step with a more efficient sampling step. Our evaluations on various datasets, source models, and test conditions indicate that Fast-DetectGPT not only surpasses DetectGPT by a relative around 75% in both the white-box and black-box settings but also accelerates the detection process by a factor of 340, as detailed in Table 1. See https://github.com/baoguangsheng/fast-detect-gpt for code, data, and results.

To align conditional text generation model outputs with desired behaviors, there has been an increasing focus on training the model using reinforcement learning (RL) with reward functions learned from human annotations. Under this framework, we identify three common cases where high rewards are incorrectly assigned to undesirable patterns: noise-induced spurious correlation, naturally occurring spurious correlation, and covariate shift. We show that even though learned metrics achieve high performance on the distribution of the data used to train the reward function, the undesirable patterns may be amplified during RL training of the text generation model. While there has been discussion about reward gaming in the RL or safety community, in this discussion piece, we would like to highlight reward gaming in the natural language generation (NLG) community using concrete conditional text generation examples and discuss potential fixes and areas for future work.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Neural field methods have seen great progress in various long-standing tasks in computer vision and computer graphics, including novel view synthesis and geometry reconstruction. As existing neural field methods try to predict some coordinate-based continuous target values, such as RGB for Neural Radiance Field (NeRF), all of these methods are regression models and are optimized by some regression loss. However, are regression models really better than classification models for neural field methods? In this work, we try to visit this very fundamental but overlooked question for neural fields from a machine learning perspective. We successfully propose a novel Neural Field Classifier (NFC) framework which formulates existing neural field methods as classification tasks rather than regression tasks. The proposed NFC can easily transform arbitrary Neural Field Regressor (NFR) into its classification variant via employing a novel Target Encoding module and optimizing a classification loss. By encoding a continuous regression target into a high-dimensional discrete encoding, we naturally formulate a multi-label classification task. Extensive experiments demonstrate the impressive effectiveness of NFC at the nearly free extra computational costs. Moreover, NFC also shows robustness to sparse inputs, corrupted images, and dynamic scenes.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Conversational recommender systems (CRSs) aim to provide recommendation services via natural language conversations. Although a number of approaches have been proposed for developing capable CRSs, they typically rely on sufficient training data for training. Since it is difficult to annotate recommendation-oriented dialogue datasets, existing CRS approaches often suffer from the issue of insufficient training due to the scarcity of training data. To address this issue, in this paper, we propose a CounterFactual data simulation approach for CRS, named CFCRS, to alleviate the issue of data scarcity in CRSs. Our approach is developed based on the framework of counterfactual data augmentation, which gradually incorporates the rewriting to the user preference from a real dialogue without interfering with the entire conversation flow. To develop our approach, we characterize user preference and organize the conversation flow by the entities involved in the dialogue, and design a multi-stage recommendation dialogue simulator based on a conversation flow language model. Under the guidance of the learned user preference and dialogue schema, the flow language model can produce reasonable, coherent conversation flows, which can be further realized into complete dialogues. Based on the simulator, we perform the intervention at the representations of the interacted entities of target users, and design an adversarial training method with a curriculum schedule that can gradually optimize the data augmentation strategy. Extensive experiments show that our approach can consistently boost the performance of several competitive CRSs, and outperform other data augmentation methods, especially when the training data is limited. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/CFCRS.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and in most cases, do not scale to the problem at hand, in particular to images. We propose DRCFS, a doubly robust feature selection method for identifying the causal features even in nonlinear and high dimensional settings. We provide theoretical guarantees, illustrate necessary conditions for our assumptions, and perform extensive experiments across a wide range of simulated and semi-synthetic datasets. DRCFS significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, selecting robust features even in challenging highly non-linear and high-dimensional problems.

Recent advancements in generative modeling have made it possible to generate high-quality content from context information, but a key question remains: how to teach models to know when to generate content? To answer this question, this study proposes a novel event generative model that draws its statistical intuition from marked temporal point processes, and offers a clean, flexible, and computationally efficient solution for a wide range of applications involving multi-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of the point process without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples, as well as considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Query expansion with pseudo-relevance feedback (PRF) is a powerful approach to enhance the effectiveness in information retrieval. Recently, with the rapid advance of deep learning techniques, neural text generation has achieved promising success in many natural language tasks. To leverage the strength of text generation for information retrieval, in this article, we propose a novel approach which effectively integrates text generation models into PRF-based query expansion. In particular, our approach generates augmented query terms via neural text generation models conditioned on both the initial query and pseudo-relevance feedback. Moreover, in order to train the generative model, we adopt the conditional generative adversarial nets (CGANs) and propose the PRF-CGAN method in which both the generator and the discriminator are conditioned on the pseudo-relevance feedback. We evaluate the performance of our approach on information retrieval tasks using two benchmark datasets. The experimental results show that our approach achieves comparable performance or outperforms traditional query expansion methods on both the retrieval and reranking tasks.

Continual relation extraction (CRE) models aim at handling emerging new relations while avoiding catastrophically forgetting old ones in the streaming data. Though improvements have been shown by previous CRE studies, most of them only adopt a vanilla strategy when models first learn representations of new relations. In this work, we point out that there exist two typical biases after training of this vanilla strategy: classifier bias and representation bias, which causes the previous knowledge that the model learned to be shaded. To alleviate those biases, we propose a simple yet effective classifier decomposition framework that splits the last FFN layer into separated previous and current classifiers, so as to maintain previous knowledge and encourage the model to learn more robust representations at this training stage. Experimental results on two standard benchmarks show that our proposed framework consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art CRE models, which indicates that the importance of the first training stage to CRE models may be underestimated. Our code is available at https://github.com/hemingkx/CDec.

Non-linguistic filler words, such as "uh" or "um", are prevalent in spontaneous speech and serve as indicators for expressing hesitation or uncertainty. Previous works for detecting certain non-linguistic filler words are highly dependent on transcriptions from a well-established commercial automatic speech recognition (ASR) system. However, certain ASR systems are not universally accessible from many aspects, e.g., budget, target languages, and computational power. In this work, we investigate filler word detection system that does not depend on ASR systems. We show that, by using the structured state space sequence model (S4) and neural semi-Markov conditional random fields (semi-CRFs), we achieve an absolute F1 improvement of 6.4% (segment level) and 3.1% (event level) on the PodcastFillers dataset. We also conduct a qualitative analysis on the detected results to analyze the limitations of our proposed system.

Language models (LMs) are pretrained to imitate internet text, including content that would violate human preferences if generated by an LM: falsehoods, offensive comments, personally identifiable information, low-quality or buggy code, and more. Here, we explore alternative objectives for pretraining LMs in a way that also guides them to generate text aligned with human preferences. We benchmark five objectives for pretraining with human feedback across three tasks and study how they affect the trade-off between alignment and capabilities of pretrained LMs. We find a Pareto-optimal and simple approach among those we explored: conditional training, or learning distribution over tokens conditional on their human preference scores given by a reward model. Conditional training reduces the rate of undesirable content by up to an order of magnitude, both when generating without a prompt and with an adversarially-chosen prompt. Moreover, conditional training maintains the downstream task performance of standard LM pretraining, both before and after task-specific finetuning. Pretraining with human feedback results in much better preference satisfaction than standard LM pretraining followed by finetuning with feedback, i.e., learning and then unlearning undesirable behavior. Our results suggest that we should move beyond imitation learning when pretraining LMs and incorporate human preferences from the start of training.

Text-to-image diffusion models have achieved tremendous success in the field of controllable image generation, while also coming along with issues of privacy leakage and data copyrights. Membership inference arises in these contexts as a potential auditing method for detecting unauthorized data usage. While some efforts have been made on diffusion models, they are not applicable to text-to-image diffusion models due to the high computation overhead and enhanced generalization capabilities. In this paper, we first identify a conditional overfitting phenomenon in text-to-image diffusion models, indicating that these models tend to overfit the conditional distribution of images given the corresponding text rather than the marginal distribution of images only. Based on this observation, we derive an analytical indicator, namely Conditional Likelihood Discrepancy (CLiD), to perform membership inference, which reduces the stochasticity in estimating memorization of individual samples. Experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms previous methods across various data distributions and dataset scales. Additionally, our method shows superior resistance to overfitting mitigation strategies, such as early stopping and data augmentation.

Deployment of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) is costly, and as these models increase in size, the associated costs will become even more considerable. Consequently, different methods have been proposed to accelerate the token generation process and reduce costs. Speculative decoding (SD) is among the most promising approaches to speed up the LLM decoding process by verifying multiple tokens in parallel and using an auxiliary smaller draft model to generate the possible tokens. In SD, usually, one draft model is used to serve a specific target model; however, in practice, LLMs are diverse, and we might need to deal with many target models or more than one target model simultaneously. In this scenario, it is not clear which draft model should be used for which target model, and searching among different draft models or training customized draft models can further increase deployment costs. In this paper, we first introduce a novel multi-target scenario for the deployment of draft models for faster inference. Then, we present a novel, more efficient sorted speculative decoding mechanism that outperforms regular baselines in multi-target settings. We evaluated our method on Spec-Bench in different settings, including base models such as Vicuna 7B, 13B, and LLama Chat 70B. Our results suggest that our draft models perform better than baselines for multiple target models at the same time.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Supervised learning usually requires a large amount of labelled data. However, attaining ground-truth labels is costly for many tasks. Alternatively, weakly supervised methods learn with cheap weak signals that only approximately label some data. Many existing weakly supervised learning methods learn a deterministic function that estimates labels given the input data and weak signals. In this paper, we develop label learning flows (LLF), a general framework for weakly supervised learning problems. Our method is a generative model based on normalizing flows. The main idea of LLF is to optimize the conditional likelihoods of all possible labelings of the data within a constrained space defined by weak signals. We develop a training method for LLF that trains the conditional flow inversely and avoids estimating the labels. Once a model is trained, we can make predictions with a sampling algorithm. We apply LLF to three weakly supervised learning problems. Experiment results show that our method outperforms many baselines we compare against.

Selecting high-quality data for pre-training is crucial in shaping the downstream task performance of language models. A major challenge lies in identifying this optimal subset, a problem generally considered intractable, thus necessitating scalable and effective heuristics. In this work, we propose a data selection method, CoLoR-Filter (Conditional Loss Reduction Filtering), which leverages an empirical Bayes-inspired approach to derive a simple and computationally efficient selection criterion based on the relative loss values of two auxiliary models. In addition to the modeling rationale, we evaluate CoLoR-Filter empirically on two language modeling tasks: (1) selecting data from C4 for domain adaptation to evaluation on Books and (2) selecting data from C4 for a suite of downstream multiple-choice question answering tasks. We demonstrate favorable scaling both as we subselect more aggressively and using small auxiliary models to select data for large target models. As one headline result, CoLoR-Filter data selected using a pair of 150m parameter auxiliary models can train a 1.2b parameter target model to match a 1.2b parameter model trained on 25b randomly selected tokens with 25x less data for Books and 11x less data for the downstream tasks. Code: https://github.com/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filter-olmo Filtered data: https://huggingface.co/datasets/davidbrandfonbrener/color-filtered-c4

Foundational image-language models have generated considerable interest due to their efficient adaptation to downstream tasks by prompt learning. Prompt learning treats part of the language model input as trainable while freezing the rest, and optimizes an Empirical Risk Minimization objective. However, Empirical Risk Minimization is known to suffer from distributional shifts which hurt generalizability to prompts unseen during training. By leveraging the regularization ability of Bayesian methods, we frame prompt learning from the Bayesian perspective and formulate it as a variational inference problem. Our approach regularizes the prompt space, reduces overfitting to the seen prompts and improves the prompt generalization on unseen prompts. Our framework is implemented by modeling the input prompt space in a probabilistic manner, as an a priori distribution which makes our proposal compatible with prompt learning approaches that are unconditional or conditional on the image. We demonstrate empirically on 15 benchmarks that Bayesian prompt learning provides an appropriate coverage of the prompt space, prevents learning spurious features, and exploits transferable invariant features. This results in better generalization of unseen prompts, even across different datasets and domains. Code available at: https://github.com/saic-fi/Bayesian-Prompt-Learning

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

Recently, a myriad of conditional image generation and editing models have been developed to serve different downstream tasks, including text-to-image generation, text-guided image editing, subject-driven image generation, control-guided image generation, etc. However, we observe huge inconsistencies in experimental conditions: datasets, inference, and evaluation metrics - render fair comparisons difficult. This paper proposes ImagenHub, which is a one-stop library to standardize the inference and evaluation of all the conditional image generation models. Firstly, we define seven prominent tasks and curate high-quality evaluation datasets for them. Secondly, we built a unified inference pipeline to ensure fair comparison. Thirdly, we design two human evaluation scores, i.e. Semantic Consistency and Perceptual Quality, along with comprehensive guidelines to evaluate generated images. We train expert raters to evaluate the model outputs based on the proposed metrics. Our human evaluation achieves a high inter-worker agreement of Krippendorff's alpha on 76% models with a value higher than 0.4. We comprehensively evaluated a total of around 30 models and observed three key takeaways: (1) the existing models' performance is generally unsatisfying except for Text-guided Image Generation and Subject-driven Image Generation, with 74% models achieving an overall score lower than 0.5. (2) we examined the claims from published papers and found 83% of them hold with a few exceptions. (3) None of the existing automatic metrics has a Spearman's correlation higher than 0.2 except subject-driven image generation. Moving forward, we will continue our efforts to evaluate newly published models and update our leaderboard to keep track of the progress in conditional image generation.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We investigate conditional adversarial networks as a general-purpose solution to image-to-image translation problems. These networks not only learn the mapping from input image to output image, but also learn a loss function to train this mapping. This makes it possible to apply the same generic approach to problems that traditionally would require very different loss formulations. We demonstrate that this approach is effective at synthesizing photos from label maps, reconstructing objects from edge maps, and colorizing images, among other tasks. Indeed, since the release of the pix2pix software associated with this paper, a large number of internet users (many of them artists) have posted their own experiments with our system, further demonstrating its wide applicability and ease of adoption without the need for parameter tweaking. As a community, we no longer hand-engineer our mapping functions, and this work suggests we can achieve reasonable results without hand-engineering our loss functions either.

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.

Online inclusive financial services encounter significant financial risks due to their expansive user base and low default costs. By real-world practice, we reveal that utilizing longer-term user payment behaviors can enhance models' ability to forecast financial risks. However, learning long behavior sequences is non-trivial for deep sequential models. Additionally, the diverse fields of payment behaviors carry rich information, requiring thorough exploitation. These factors collectively complicate the task of long-term user behavior modeling. To tackle these challenges, we propose a Long-term Payment Behavior Sequence Folding method, referred to as LBSF. In LBSF, payment behavior sequences are folded based on merchants, using the merchant field as an intrinsic grouping criterion, which enables informative parallelism without reliance on external knowledge. Meanwhile, we maximize the utility of payment details through a multi-field behavior encoding mechanism. Subsequently, behavior aggregation at the merchant level followed by relational learning across merchants facilitates comprehensive user financial representation. We evaluate LBSF on the financial risk assessment task using a large-scale real-world dataset. The results demonstrate that folding long behavior sequences based on internal behavioral cues effectively models long-term patterns and changes, thereby generating more accurate user financial profiles for practical applications.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

In this paper, we formulate keyphrase extraction from scholarly articles as a sequence labeling task solved using a BiLSTM-CRF, where the words in the input text are represented using deep contextualized embeddings. We evaluate the proposed architecture using both contextualized and fixed word embedding models on three different benchmark datasets (Inspec, SemEval 2010, SemEval 2017) and compare with existing popular unsupervised and supervised techniques. Our results quantify the benefits of (a) using contextualized embeddings (e.g. BERT) over fixed word embeddings (e.g. Glove); (b) using a BiLSTM-CRF architecture with contextualized word embeddings over fine-tuning the contextualized word embedding model directly, and (c) using genre-specific contextualized embeddings (SciBERT). Through error analysis, we also provide some insights into why particular models work better than others. Lastly, we present a case study where we analyze different self-attention layers of the two best models (BERT and SciBERT) to better understand the predictions made by each for the task of keyphrase extraction.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

Conditional language models are predominantly trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), giving probability mass to sparsely observed target sequences. While MLE trained models assign high probability to plausible sequences given the context, the model probabilities often do not accurately rank-order generated sequences by quality. This has been empirically observed in beam search decoding as output quality degrading with large beam sizes, and decoding strategies benefiting from heuristics such as length normalization and repetition-blocking. In this work, we introduce sequence likelihood calibration (SLiC) where the likelihood of model generated sequences are calibrated to better align with reference sequences in the model's latent space. With SLiC, decoding heuristics become unnecessary and decoding candidates' quality significantly improves regardless of the decoding method. Furthermore, SLiC shows no sign of diminishing returns with model scale, and presents alternative ways to improve quality with limited training and inference budgets. With SLiC, we exceed or match SOTA results on a wide range of generation tasks spanning abstractive summarization, question generation, abstractive question answering and data-to-text generation, even with modest-sized models.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

Recursive Neural Networks (RvNNs), which compose sequences according to their underlying hierarchical syntactic structure, have performed well in several natural language processing tasks compared to similar models without structural biases. However, traditional RvNNs are incapable of inducing the latent structure in a plain text sequence on their own. Several extensions have been proposed to overcome this limitation. Nevertheless, these extensions tend to rely on surrogate gradients or reinforcement learning at the cost of higher bias or variance. In this work, we propose Continuous Recursive Neural Network (CRvNN) as a backpropagation-friendly alternative to address the aforementioned limitations. This is done by incorporating a continuous relaxation to the induced structure. We demonstrate that CRvNN achieves strong performance in challenging synthetic tasks such as logical inference and ListOps. We also show that CRvNN performs comparably or better than prior latent structure models on real-world tasks such as sentiment analysis and natural language inference.

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

Observational astronomy relies on visual feature identification to detect critical astrophysical phenomena. While machine learning (ML) increasingly automates this process, models often struggle with generalization in large-scale surveys due to the limited representativeness of labeled datasets -- whether from simulations or human annotation -- a challenge pronounced for rare yet scientifically valuable objects. To address this, we propose a conditional diffusion model to synthesize realistic galaxy images for augmenting ML training data. Leveraging the Galaxy Zoo 2 dataset which contains visual feature -- galaxy image pairs from volunteer annotation, we demonstrate that our model generates diverse, high-fidelity galaxy images closely adhere to the specified morphological feature conditions. Moreover, this model enables generative extrapolation to project well-annotated data into unseen domains and advancing rare object detection. Integrating synthesized images into ML pipelines improves performance in standard morphology classification, boosting completeness and purity by up to 30\% across key metrics. For rare object detection, using early-type galaxies with prominent dust lane features ( sim0.1\% in GZ2 dataset) as a test case, our approach doubled the number of detected instances from 352 to 872, compared to previous studies based on visual inspection. This study highlights the power of generative models to bridge gaps between scarce labeled data and the vast, uncharted parameter space of observational astronomy and sheds insight for future astrophysical foundation model developments. Our project homepage is available at https://galaxysd-webpage.streamlit.app/.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

In this paper, we study how to synthesize a dynamic reference from an external dictionary to perform conditional coding of the input image in the latent domain and how to learn the conditional latent synthesis and coding modules in an end-to-end manner. Our approach begins by constructing a universal image feature dictionary using a multi-stage approach involving modified spatial pyramid pooling, dimension reduction, and multi-scale feature clustering. For each input image, we learn to synthesize a conditioning latent by selecting and synthesizing relevant features from the dictionary, which significantly enhances the model's capability in capturing and exploring image source correlation. This conditional latent synthesis involves a correlation-based feature matching and alignment strategy, comprising a Conditional Latent Matching (CLM) module and a Conditional Latent Synthesis (CLS) module. The synthesized latent is then used to guide the encoding process, allowing for more efficient compression by exploiting the correlation between the input image and the reference dictionary. According to our theoretical analysis, the proposed conditional latent coding (CLC) method is robust to perturbations in the external dictionary samples and the selected conditioning latent, with an error bound that scales logarithmically with the dictionary size, ensuring stability even with large and diverse dictionaries. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that our new method improves the coding performance by a large margin (up to 1.2 dB) with a very small overhead of approximately 0.5\% bits per pixel. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ydchen0806/CLC.

Transductive Few-Shot Learning (TFSL) has recently attracted increasing attention since it typically outperforms its inductive peer by leveraging statistics of query samples. However, previous TFSL methods usually encode uniform prior that all the classes within query samples are equally likely, which is biased in imbalanced TFSL and causes severe performance degradation. Given this pivotal issue, in this work, we propose a novel Conditional Transport (CT) based imbalanced TFSL model called {\textbf P}rototypes-oriented {\textbf U}nbiased {\textbf T}ransfer {\textbf M}odel (PUTM) to fully exploit unbiased statistics of imbalanced query samples, which employs forward and backward navigators as transport matrices to balance the prior of query samples per class between uniform and adaptive data-driven distributions. For efficiently transferring statistics learned by CT, we further derive a closed form solution to refine prototypes based on MAP given the learned navigators. The above two steps of discovering and transferring unbiased statistics follow an iterative manner, formulating our EM-based solver. Experimental results on four standard benchmarks including miniImageNet, tieredImageNet, CUB, and CIFAR-FS demonstrate superiority of our model in class-imbalanced generalization.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying uncertainty in predictions. This study aims to tackle these critical limitations by introducing adapters; feature-space transformations that facilitate the effective use of pre-trained univariate time series FMs for multivariate tasks. Adapters operate by projecting multivariate inputs into a suitable latent space and applying the FM independently to each dimension. Inspired by the literature on representation learning and partially stochastic Bayesian neural networks, we present a range of adapters and optimization/inference strategies. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets confirm the efficacy of adapters, demonstrating substantial enhancements in forecasting accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to baseline methods. Our framework, AdaPTS, positions adapters as a modular, scalable, and effective solution for leveraging time series FMs in multivariate contexts, thereby promoting their wider adoption in real-world applications. We release the code at https://github.com/abenechehab/AdaPTS.

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging research problem. We present several volatility models based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework for modeling the volatility of ten stocks listed in the national stock exchange (NSE) of India. The stocks are selected from the auto sector and the banking sector of the Indian economy, and they have a significant impact on the sectoral index of their respective sectors in the NSE. The historical stock price records from Jan 1, 2010, to Apr 30, 2021, are scraped from the Yahoo Finance website using the DataReader API of the Pandas module in the Python programming language. The GARCH modules are built and fine-tuned on the training data and then tested on the out-of-sample data to evaluate the performance of the models. The analysis of the results shows that asymmetric GARCH models yield more accurate forecasts on the future volatility of stocks.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Click-through prediction (CTR) models transform features into latent vectors and enumerate possible feature interactions to improve performance based on the input feature set. Therefore, when selecting an optimal feature set, we should consider the influence of both feature and its interaction. However, most previous works focus on either feature field selection or only select feature interaction based on the fixed feature set to produce the feature set. The former restricts search space to the feature field, which is too coarse to determine subtle features. They also do not filter useless feature interactions, leading to higher computation costs and degraded model performance. The latter identifies useful feature interaction from all available features, resulting in many redundant features in the feature set. In this paper, we propose a novel method named OptFS to address these problems. To unify the selection of feature and its interaction, we decompose the selection of each feature interaction into the selection of two correlated features. Such a decomposition makes the model end-to-end trainable given various feature interaction operations. By adopting feature-level search space, we set a learnable gate to determine whether each feature should be within the feature set. Because of the large-scale search space, we develop a learning-by-continuation training scheme to learn such gates. Hence, OptFS generates the feature set only containing features which improve the final prediction results. Experimentally, we evaluate OptFS on three public datasets, demonstrating OptFS can optimize feature sets which enhance the model performance and further reduce both the storage and computational cost.

Although autoregressive models have dominated language modeling in recent years, there has been a growing interest in exploring alternative paradigms to the conventional next-token prediction framework. Diffusion-based language models have emerged as a compelling alternative due to their powerful parallel generation capabilities and inherent editability. However, these models are often constrained by fixed-length generation. A promising direction is to combine the strengths of both paradigms, segmenting sequences into blocks, modeling autoregressive dependencies across blocks while leveraging discrete diffusion to estimate the conditional distribution within each block given the preceding context. Nevertheless, their practical application is often hindered by two key limitations: rigid fixed-length outputs and a lack of flexible control mechanisms. In this work, we address the critical limitations of fixed granularity and weak controllability in current large diffusion language models. We propose CtrlDiff, a dynamic and controllable semi-autoregressive framework that adaptively determines the size of each generation block based on local semantics using reinforcement learning. Furthermore, we introduce a classifier-guided control mechanism tailored to discrete diffusion, which significantly reduces computational overhead while facilitating efficient post-hoc conditioning without retraining. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CtrlDiff sets a new standard among hybrid diffusion models, narrows the performance gap to state-of-the-art autoregressive approaches, and enables effective conditional text generation across diverse tasks.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Discrete diffusion models with absorbing processes have shown promise in language modeling. The key quantities to be estimated are the ratios between the marginal probabilities of two transitive states at all timesteps, called the concrete score. In this paper, we reveal that the concrete score in absorbing diffusion can be expressed as conditional probabilities of clean data, multiplied by a time-dependent scalar in an analytic form. Motivated by this finding, we propose reparameterized absorbing discrete diffusion (RADD), a dedicated diffusion model without time-condition that characterizes the time-independent conditional probabilities. Besides its simplicity, RADD can reduce the number of function evaluations (NFEs) by caching the output of the time-independent network when the noisy sample remains unchanged in a sampling interval. Empirically, RADD is up to 3.5 times faster while achieving similar performance with the strongest baseline. Built upon the new perspective of conditional distributions, we further unify absorbing discrete diffusion and any-order autoregressive models (AO-ARMs), showing that the upper bound on the negative log-likelihood for the diffusion model can be interpreted as an expected negative log-likelihood for AO-ARMs. Further, our RADD models achieve SOTA performance among diffusion models on 5 zero-shot language modeling benchmarks (measured by perplexity) at the GPT-2 scale. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/RADD.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based LLM fine-tuned to predict inflation-related sentiment in news. We use this model to produce NEWS, an index capturing the monthly sentiment of the news regarding inflation. Incorporating our expectation index into the Cleveland Fed's model, which is only based on macroeconomic autoregressive processes, shows a marginal improvement in nowcast accuracy during the pandemic. This highlights the potential of combining sentiment analysis with traditional economic indicators, suggesting further research to refine these methodologies for better real-time inflation monitoring. The source code is available at https://github.com/paultltc/InflaBERT.

We introduce Diffusion World Model (DWM), a conditional diffusion model capable of predicting multistep future states and rewards concurrently. As opposed to traditional one-step dynamics models, DWM offers long-horizon predictions in a single forward pass, eliminating the need for recursive quires. We integrate DWM into model-based value estimation, where the short-term return is simulated by future trajectories sampled from DWM. In the context of offline reinforcement learning, DWM can be viewed as a conservative value regularization through generative modeling. Alternatively, it can be seen as a data source that enables offline Q-learning with synthetic data. Our experiments on the D4RL dataset confirm the robustness of DWM to long-horizon simulation. In terms of absolute performance, DWM significantly surpasses one-step dynamics models with a 44% performance gain, and achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Conditional generative models aim to learn the underlying joint distribution of data and labels to achieve conditional data generation. Among them, the auxiliary classifier generative adversarial network (AC-GAN) has been widely used, but suffers from the problem of low intra-class diversity of the generated samples. The fundamental reason pointed out in this paper is that the classifier of AC-GAN is generator-agnostic, which therefore cannot provide informative guidance for the generator to approach the joint distribution, resulting in a minimization of the conditional entropy that decreases the intra-class diversity. Motivated by this understanding, we propose a novel conditional GAN with an auxiliary discriminative classifier (ADC-GAN) to resolve the above problem. Specifically, the proposed auxiliary discriminative classifier becomes generator-aware by recognizing the class-labels of the real data and the generated data discriminatively. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the generator can faithfully learn the joint distribution even without the original discriminator, making the proposed ADC-GAN robust to the value of the coefficient hyperparameter and the selection of the GAN loss, and stable during training. Extensive experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of ADC-GAN in conditional generative modeling compared to state-of-the-art classifier-based and projection-based conditional GANs.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is to find maximum likelihood solution for models having latent variables. A typical example is Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) which requires Gaussian assumption, however, natural images are highly non-Gaussian so that GMM cannot be applied to perform clustering task on pixel space. To overcome such limitation, we propose a GAN based EM learning framework that can maximize the likelihood of images and estimate the latent variables with only the constraint of L-Lipschitz continuity. We call this model GAN-EM, which is a framework for image clustering, semi-supervised classification and dimensionality reduction. In M-step, we design a novel loss function for discriminator of GAN to perform maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) on data with soft class label assignments. Specifically, a conditional generator captures data distribution for K classes, and a discriminator tells whether a sample is real or fake for each class. Since our model is unsupervised, the class label of real data is regarded as latent variable, which is estimated by an additional network (E-net) in E-step. The proposed GAN-EM achieves state-of-the-art clustering and semi-supervised classification results on MNIST, SVHN and CelebA, as well as comparable quality of generated images to other recently developed generative models.

We propose TR0N, a highly general framework to turn pre-trained unconditional generative models, such as GANs and VAEs, into conditional models. The conditioning can be highly arbitrary, and requires only a pre-trained auxiliary model. For example, we show how to turn unconditional models into class-conditional ones with the help of a classifier, and also into text-to-image models by leveraging CLIP. TR0N learns a lightweight stochastic mapping which "translates" between the space of conditions and the latent space of the generative model, in such a way that the generated latent corresponds to a data sample satisfying the desired condition. The translated latent samples are then further improved upon through Langevin dynamics, enabling us to obtain higher-quality data samples. TR0N requires no training data nor fine-tuning, yet can achieve a zero-shot FID of 10.9 on MS-COCO, outperforming competing alternatives not only on this metric, but also in sampling speed -- all while retaining a much higher level of generality. Our code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/tr0n.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

Beam search is the default decoding strategy for many sequence generation tasks in NLP. The set of approximate K-best items returned by the algorithm is a useful summary of the distribution for many applications; however, the candidates typically exhibit high overlap and may give a highly biased estimate for expectations under our model. These problems can be addressed by instead using stochastic decoding strategies. In this work, we propose a new method for turning beam search into a stochastic process: Conditional Poisson stochastic beam search. Rather than taking the maximizing set at each iteration, we sample K candidates without replacement according to the conditional Poisson sampling design. We view this as a more natural alternative to Kool et. al. 2019's stochastic beam search (SBS). Furthermore, we show how samples generated under the CPSBS design can be used to build consistent estimators and sample diverse sets from sequence models. In our experiments, we observe CPSBS produces lower variance and more efficient estimators than SBS, even showing improvements in high entropy settings.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a perspective approach to detecting Large Language Model (LLM) hallucinations and low quality output. In this work, we address one of the challenges of UQ in generation tasks that arises from the conditional dependency between the generation steps of an LLM. We propose to learn this dependency from data. We train a regression model, which target variable is the gap between the conditional and the unconditional generation confidence. During LLM inference, we use this learned conditional dependency model to modulate the uncertainty of the current generation step based on the uncertainty of the previous step. Our experimental evaluation on nine datasets and three LLMs shows that the proposed method is highly effective for uncertainty quantification, achieving substantial improvements over rivaling approaches.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a popular solution to mitigate the hallucination issues of large language models. However, existing studies on RAG seldom address the issue of predictive uncertainty, i.e., how likely it is that a RAG model's prediction is incorrect, resulting in uncontrollable risks in real-world applications. In this work, we emphasize the importance of risk control, ensuring that RAG models proactively refuse to answer questions with low confidence. Our research identifies two critical latent factors affecting RAG's confidence in its predictions: the quality of the retrieved results and the manner in which these results are utilized. To guide RAG models in assessing their own confidence based on these two latent factors, we develop a counterfactual prompting framework that induces the models to alter these factors and analyzes the effect on their answers. We also introduce a benchmarking procedure to collect answers with the option to abstain, facilitating a series of experiments. For evaluation, we introduce several risk-related metrics and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Chest X-Ray (CXR) report generation is a promising approach to improving the efficiency of CXR interpretation. However, a significant increase in diagnostic accuracy is required before that can be realised. Motivated by this, we propose a framework that is more inline with a radiologist's workflow by considering longitudinal data. Here, the decoder is additionally conditioned on the report from the subject's previous imaging study via a prompt. We also propose a new reward for reinforcement learning based on CXR-BERT, which computes the similarity between reports. We conduct experiments on the MIMIC-CXR dataset. The results indicate that longitudinal data improves CXR report generation. CXR-BERT is also shown to be a promising alternative to the current state-of-the-art reward based on RadGraph. This investigation indicates that longitudinal CXR report generation can offer a substantial increase in diagnostic accuracy. Our Hugging Face model is available at: https://huggingface.co/aehrc/cxrmate and code is available at: https://github.com/aehrc/cxrmate.

Current state-of-the-art approaches for named entity recognition (NER) typically consider text at the sentence-level and thus do not model information that crosses sentence boundaries. However, the use of transformer-based models for NER offers natural options for capturing document-level features. In this paper, we perform a comparative evaluation of document-level features in the two standard NER architectures commonly considered in the literature, namely "fine-tuning" and "feature-based LSTM-CRF". We evaluate different hyperparameters for document-level features such as context window size and enforcing document-locality. We present experiments from which we derive recommendations for how to model document context and present new state-of-the-art scores on several CoNLL-03 benchmark datasets. Our approach is integrated into the Flair framework to facilitate reproduction of our experiments.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

Given an unconditional diffusion model and a predictor for a target property of interest (e.g., a classifier), the goal of training-free guidance is to generate samples with desirable target properties without additional training. Existing methods, though effective in various individual applications, often lack theoretical grounding and rigorous testing on extensive benchmarks. As a result, they could even fail on simple tasks, and applying them to a new problem becomes unavoidably difficult. This paper introduces a novel algorithmic framework encompassing existing methods as special cases, unifying the study of training-free guidance into the analysis of an algorithm-agnostic design space. Via theoretical and empirical investigation, we propose an efficient and effective hyper-parameter searching strategy that can be readily applied to any downstream task. We systematically benchmark across 7 diffusion models on 16 tasks with 40 targets, and improve performance by 8.5% on average. Our framework and benchmark offer a solid foundation for conditional generation in a training-free manner.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

In this work, we propose sequence-level certainty as a common theme over hallucination in Knowledge Grounded Dialogue Generation (KGDG). We explore the correlation between the level of hallucination and two types of sequence-level certainty: probabilistic certainty and semantic certainty. Empirical results reveal that a higher level of both types of sequence-level certainty in model responses is correlated with a lower level of hallucination. We further propose Certainty-based Response Ranking (CRR), a decoding-time hallucination mitigation method that ranks response candidates based on their sequence-level certainty and outputs the answer with the highest certainty level. Aligning with our definitions of sequence-level certainty, we design 2 types of CRR approaches: Probabilistic CRR (P-CRR) and Semantic CRR (S-CRR). P-CRR ranks individually sampled model responses using the arithmetic mean log-probability of the entire sequence. S-CRR approaches certainty estimation from meaning-space, and ranks model response candidates based on their semantic certainty level as measured by an entailment-based Agreement Score (AS). Through extensive experiments across 3 KGDG datasets, 3 decoding methods, and 4 different models, we validate the effectiveness of the CRR methods in reducing model hallucination.

Context-aware STR methods typically use internal autoregressive (AR) language models (LM). Inherent limitations of AR models motivated two-stage methods which employ an external LM. The conditional independence of the external LM on the input image may cause it to erroneously rectify correct predictions, leading to significant inefficiencies. Our method, PARSeq, learns an ensemble of internal AR LMs with shared weights using Permutation Language Modeling. It unifies context-free non-AR and context-aware AR inference, and iterative refinement using bidirectional context. Using synthetic training data, PARSeq achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results in STR benchmarks (91.9% accuracy) and more challenging datasets. It establishes new SOTA results (96.0% accuracy) when trained on real data. PARSeq is optimal on accuracy vs parameter count, FLOPS, and latency because of its simple, unified structure and parallel token processing. Due to its extensive use of attention, it is robust on arbitrarily-oriented text which is common in real-world images. Code, pretrained weights, and data are available at: https://github.com/baudm/parseq.

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

The current large auto-regressive models can generate high-quality, high-resolution images, but these models require hundreds or even thousands of steps of next-token prediction during inference, resulting in substantial time consumption. In existing studies, Jacobi decoding, an iterative parallel decoding algorithm, has been used to accelerate the auto-regressive generation and can be executed without training. However, the Jacobi decoding relies on a deterministic criterion to determine the convergence of iterations. Thus, it works for greedy decoding but is incompatible with sampling-based decoding which is crucial for visual quality and diversity in the current auto-regressive text-to-image generation. In this paper, we propose a training-free probabilistic parallel decoding algorithm, Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD), to accelerate auto-regressive text-to-image generation. By introducing a probabilistic convergence criterion, our SJD accelerates the inference of auto-regressive text-to-image generation while maintaining the randomness in sampling-based token decoding and allowing the model to generate diverse images. Specifically, SJD facilitates the model to predict multiple tokens at each step and accepts tokens based on the probabilistic criterion, enabling the model to generate images with fewer steps than the conventional next-token-prediction paradigm. We also investigate the token initialization strategies that leverage the spatial locality of visual data to further improve the acceleration ratio under specific scenarios. We conduct experiments for our proposed SJD on multiple auto-regressive text-to-image generation models, showing the effectiveness of model acceleration without sacrificing the visual quality.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a popular method to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) while retaining their superior text generation performance. Previous methods either adopt a fixed speculative decoding configuration regardless of the prefix tokens, or train draft models in an offline or online manner to align them with the context. This paper proposes a training-free online learning framework to adaptively choose the configuration of the hyperparameters for speculative decoding as text is being generated. We first formulate this hyperparameter selection problem as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem and provide a general speculative decoding framework BanditSpec. Furthermore, two bandit-based hyperparameter selection algorithms, UCBSpec and EXP3Spec, are designed and analyzed in terms of a novel quantity, the stopping time regret. We upper bound this regret under both stochastic and adversarial reward settings. By deriving an information-theoretic impossibility result, it is shown that the regret performance of UCBSpec is optimal up to universal constants. Finally, extensive empirical experiments with LLaMA3 and Qwen2 demonstrate that our algorithms are effective compared to existing methods, and the throughput is close to the oracle best hyperparameter in simulated real-life LLM serving scenarios with diverse input prompts.

Building effective dense retrieval systems remains difficult when relevance supervision is not available. Recent work has looked to overcome this challenge by using a Large Language Model (LLM) to generate hypothetical documents that can be used to find the closest real document. However, this approach relies solely on the LLM to have domain-specific knowledge relevant to the query, which may not be practical. Furthermore, generating hypothetical documents can be inefficient as it requires the LLM to generate a large number of tokens for each query. To address these challenges, we introduce Real Document Embeddings from Relevance Feedback (ReDE-RF). Inspired by relevance feedback, ReDE-RF proposes to re-frame hypothetical document generation as a relevance estimation task, using an LLM to select which documents should be used for nearest neighbor search. Through this re-framing, the LLM no longer needs domain-specific knowledge but only needs to judge what is relevant. Additionally, relevance estimation only requires the LLM to output a single token, thereby improving search latency. Our experiments show that ReDE-RF consistently surpasses state-of-the-art zero-shot dense retrieval methods across a wide range of low-resource retrieval datasets while also making significant improvements in latency per-query.

Pseudo-relevance feedback (PRF) has proven to be an effective query reformulation technique to improve retrieval accuracy. It aims to alleviate the mismatch of linguistic expressions between a query and its potential relevant documents. Existing PRF methods independently treat revised queries originating from the same query but using different numbers of feedback documents, resulting in severe query drift. Without comparing the effects of two different revisions from the same query, a PRF model may incorrectly focus on the additional irrelevant information increased in the more feedback, and thus reformulate a query that is less effective than the revision using the less feedback. Ideally, if a PRF model can distinguish between irrelevant and relevant information in the feedback, the more feedback documents there are, the better the revised query will be. To bridge this gap, we propose the Loss-over-Loss (LoL) framework to compare the reformulation losses between different revisions of the same query during training. Concretely, we revise an original query multiple times in parallel using different amounts of feedback and compute their reformulation losses. Then, we introduce an additional regularization loss on these reformulation losses to penalize revisions that use more feedback but gain larger losses. With such comparative regularization, the PRF model is expected to learn to suppress the extra increased irrelevant information by comparing the effects of different revised queries. Further, we present a differentiable query reformulation method to implement this framework. This method revises queries in the vector space and directly optimizes the retrieval performance of query vectors, applicable for both sparse and dense retrieval models. Empirical evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness and robustness of our method for two typical sparse and dense retrieval models.

While speculative decoding has recently appeared as a promising direction for accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs), the speedup and scalability are strongly bounded by the token acceptance rate. Prevalent methods usually organize predicted tokens as independent chains or fixed token trees, which fails to generalize to diverse query distributions. In this paper, we propose DySpec, a faster speculative decoding algorithm with a novel dynamic token tree structure. We begin by bridging the draft distribution and acceptance rate from intuitive and empirical clues, and successfully show that the two variables are strongly correlated. Based on this, we employ a greedy strategy to dynamically expand the token tree at run time. Theoretically, we show that our method can achieve optimal results under mild assumptions. Empirically, DySpec yields a higher acceptance rate and speedup than fixed trees. DySpec can drastically improve the throughput and reduce the latency of token generation across various data distribution and model sizes, which significantly outperforms strong competitors, including Specinfer and Sequoia. Under low temperature setting, DySpec can improve the throughput up to 9.1times and reduce the latency up to 9.4times on Llama2-70B. Under high temperature setting, DySpec can also improve the throughput up to 6.21times, despite the increasing difficulty of speculating more than one token per step for draft model.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Conversational recommender systems (CRS) aim to recommend suitable items to users through natural language conversations. For developing effective CRSs, a major technical issue is how to accurately infer user preference from very limited conversation context. To address issue, a promising solution is to incorporate external data for enriching the context information. However, prior studies mainly focus on designing fusion models tailored for some specific type of external data, which is not general to model and utilize multi-type external data. To effectively leverage multi-type external data, we propose a novel coarse-to-fine contrastive learning framework to improve data semantic fusion for CRS. In our approach, we first extract and represent multi-grained semantic units from different data signals, and then align the associated multi-type semantic units in a coarse-to-fine way. To implement this framework, we design both coarse-grained and fine-grained procedures for modeling user preference, where the former focuses on more general, coarse-grained semantic fusion and the latter focuses on more specific, fine-grained semantic fusion. Such an approach can be extended to incorporate more kinds of external data. Extensive experiments on two public CRS datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach in both recommendation and conversation tasks.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network's ability to capture volatility clustering and its real-world applicability. Three architectures were tested: a 2-component mixture density network, a regularized 2-component model (Arimond et al., 2020), and a 3-component mixture model, the latter being tested for the first time in Value-at-Risk forecasting. Backtesting was performed on three stock indices (FTSE 100, S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50) over two distinct two-year periods (2017-2018 as a calm period, 2021-2022 as turbulent). Model performance was assessed through unconditional coverage and independence assumption tests. The neural network's ability to handle volatility clustering was validated via correlation analysis and graphical evaluation. Results show limited success for the neural network approach. LSTM-MDNs performed poorly for 2017/2018 but outperformed benchmark models in 2021/2022. The LSTM mechanism allowed the neural network to capture volatility clustering similarly to GARCH models. However, several issues were identified: the need for proper model initialization and reliance on large datasets for effective learning. The findings suggest that while LSTM-MDNs provide adequate risk forecasts, further research and adjustments are necessary for stable performance.

State-of-the-art systems in deep question answering proceed as follows: (1) an initial document retrieval selects relevant documents, which (2) are then processed by a neural network in order to extract the final answer. Yet the exact interplay between both components is poorly understood, especially concerning the number of candidate documents that should be retrieved. We show that choosing a static number of documents -- as used in prior research -- suffers from a noise-information trade-off and yields suboptimal results. As a remedy, we propose an adaptive document retrieval model. This learns the optimal candidate number for document retrieval, conditional on the size of the corpus and the query. We report extensive experimental results showing that our adaptive approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple benchmark datasets, as well as in the context of corpora with variable sizes.

Pretrained Foundation Models (PFMs) are regarded as the foundation for various downstream tasks with different data modalities. A PFM (e.g., BERT, ChatGPT, and GPT-4) is trained on large-scale data which provides a reasonable parameter initialization for a wide range of downstream applications. BERT learns bidirectional encoder representations from Transformers, which are trained on large datasets as contextual language models. Similarly, the generative pretrained transformer (GPT) method employs Transformers as the feature extractor and is trained using an autoregressive paradigm on large datasets. Recently, ChatGPT shows promising success on large language models, which applies an autoregressive language model with zero shot or few shot prompting. The remarkable achievements of PFM have brought significant breakthroughs to various fields of AI. Numerous studies have proposed different methods, raising the demand for an updated survey. This study provides a comprehensive review of recent research advancements, challenges, and opportunities for PFMs in text, image, graph, as well as other data modalities. The review covers the basic components and existing pretraining methods used in natural language processing, computer vision, and graph learning. Additionally, it explores advanced PFMs used for different data modalities and unified PFMs that consider data quality and quantity. The review also discusses research related to the fundamentals of PFMs, such as model efficiency and compression, security, and privacy. Finally, the study provides key implications, future research directions, challenges, and open problems in the field of PFMs. Overall, this survey aims to shed light on the research of the PFMs on scalability, security, logical reasoning ability, cross-domain learning ability, and the user-friendly interactive ability for artificial general intelligence.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a widely used approach to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without reducing generation quality. It operates by first using a compact model to draft multiple tokens efficiently, followed by parallel verification using the target LLM. This approach leads to faster inference compared to auto-regressive decoding. While there are multiple approaches to create a draft model, one promising approach is to use early-exit methods. These methods draft candidate tokens by using a subset of layers of the primary model and applying the remaining layers for verification, allowing a single model to handle both drafting and verification. While this technique reduces memory usage and computational cost, its performance relies on the choice of the exit layer for drafting and the number of tokens drafted (speculation length) in each SD round. Prior works use hyperparameter exploration to statically select these values. However, our evaluations show that these hyperparameter values are task-specific, and even within a task they are dependent on the current sequence context. We introduce DEL, a plug-and-play method that adaptively selects the exit layer and speculation length during inference. DEL dynamically tracks the token acceptance rate if the tokens are drafted at each layer of an LLM and uses that knowledge to heuristically select the optimal exit layer and speculation length. Our experiments across a broad range of models and downstream tasks show that DEL achieves overall speedups of 2.16timessim2.50times over vanilla auto-regressive decoding and improves upon the state-of-the-art SD methods by up to 0.27times.

Conditional Text Generation has drawn much attention as a topic of Natural Language Generation (NLG) which provides the possibility for humans to control the properties of generated contents. Current conditional generation models cannot handle emerging conditions due to their joint end-to-end learning fashion. When a new condition added, these techniques require full retraining. In this paper, we present a new framework named Pre-train and Plug-in Variational Auto-Encoder (PPVAE) towards flexible conditional text generation. PPVAE decouples the text generation module from the condition representation module to allow "one-to-many" conditional generation. When a fresh condition emerges, only a lightweight network needs to be trained and works as a plug-in for PPVAE, which is efficient and desirable for real-world applications. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of PPVAE against the existing alternatives with better conditionality and diversity but less training effort.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable generative capabilities but often suffer from hallucinations. Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) offers an effective solution by incorporating external knowledge, but existing methods still face several limitations: additional deployment costs of separate retrievers, redundant input tokens from retrieved text chunks, and the lack of joint optimization of retrieval and generation. To address these issues, we propose RetroLLM, a unified framework that integrates retrieval and generation into a single, cohesive process, enabling LLMs to directly generate fine-grained evidence from the corpus with constrained decoding. Moreover, to mitigate false pruning in the process of constrained evidence generation, we introduce (1) hierarchical FM-Index constraints, which generate corpus-constrained clues to identify a subset of relevant documents before evidence generation, reducing irrelevant decoding space; and (2) a forward-looking constrained decoding strategy, which considers the relevance of future sequences to improve evidence accuracy. Extensive experiments on five open-domain QA datasets demonstrate RetroLLM's superior performance across both in-domain and out-of-domain tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/sunnynexus/RetroLLM.

There have been various types of pretraining architectures including autoencoding models (e.g., BERT), autoregressive models (e.g., GPT), and encoder-decoder models (e.g., T5). However, none of the pretraining frameworks performs the best for all tasks of three main categories including natural language understanding (NLU), unconditional generation, and conditional generation. We propose a General Language Model (GLM) based on autoregressive blank infilling to address this challenge. GLM improves blank filling pretraining by adding 2D positional encodings and allowing an arbitrary order to predict spans, which results in performance gains over BERT and T5 on NLU tasks. Meanwhile, GLM can be pretrained for different types of tasks by varying the number and lengths of blanks. On a wide range of tasks across NLU, conditional and unconditional generation, GLM outperforms BERT, T5, and GPT given the same model sizes and data, and achieves the best performance from a single pretrained model with 1.25x parameters of BERT Large , demonstrating its generalizability to different downstream tasks.

Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward or potential function over the full sequence. In this work, we leverage the rich toolkit of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for these probabilistic inference problems. In particular, we use learned twist functions to estimate the expected future value of the potential at each timestep, which enables us to focus inference-time computation on promising partial sequences. We propose a novel contrastive method for learning the twist functions, and establish connections with the rich literature of soft reinforcement learning. As a complementary application of our twisted SMC framework, we present methods for evaluating the accuracy of language model inference techniques using novel bidirectional SMC bounds on the log partition function. These bounds can be used to estimate the KL divergence between the inference and target distributions in both directions. We apply our inference evaluation techniques to show that twisted SMC is effective for sampling undesirable outputs from a pretrained model (a useful component of harmlessness training and automated red-teaming), generating reviews with varied sentiment, and performing infilling tasks.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a technique to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using a lower complexity draft model to propose candidate tokens verified by a larger target model. To further improve efficiency, Multi-Candidate Speculative Decoding (MCSD) improves upon this by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the draft model at each step and verifying them in parallel, thus increasing the chances of accepting a token and reducing generation time. Existing MCSD methods rely on the draft model to initialize the multi-candidate sequences and use static length and tree attention structure for draft generation. However, such an approach suffers from the draft and target model's output distribution differences, especially in dynamic generation context. In this work, we introduce an improved version of MCSD that includes a target model initialized multi-candidate process, dynamic sliced topology-aware causal mask for dynamic length adjustment, and decision models to optimize early stopping. Our framework improves the acceptance rate, defined as the ratio of the longest draft sequence length accepted by the target model over the maximum draft sequence length, by a maximum of 164% and gains a maximum of 75% generation speed up over the MCSD baseline. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the impact of the decision model.

Recently, conditional diffusion models have gained popularity in numerous applications due to their exceptional generation ability. However, many existing methods are training-required. They need to train a time-dependent classifier or a condition-dependent score estimator, which increases the cost of constructing conditional diffusion models and is inconvenient to transfer across different conditions. Some current works aim to overcome this limitation by proposing training-free solutions, but most can only be applied to a specific category of tasks and not to more general conditions. In this work, we propose a training-Free conditional Diffusion Model (FreeDoM) used for various conditions. Specifically, we leverage off-the-shelf pre-trained networks, such as a face detection model, to construct time-independent energy functions, which guide the generation process without requiring training. Furthermore, because the construction of the energy function is very flexible and adaptable to various conditions, our proposed FreeDoM has a broader range of applications than existing training-free methods. FreeDoM is advantageous in its simplicity, effectiveness, and low cost. Experiments demonstrate that FreeDoM is effective for various conditions and suitable for diffusion models of diverse data domains, including image and latent code domains.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Dense retrieval systems conduct first-stage retrieval using embedded representations and simple similarity metrics to match a query to documents. Its effectiveness depends on encoded embeddings to capture the semantics of queries and documents, a challenging task due to the shortness and ambiguity of search queries. This paper proposes ANCE-PRF, a new query encoder that uses pseudo relevance feedback (PRF) to improve query representations for dense retrieval. ANCE-PRF uses a BERT encoder that consumes the query and the top retrieved documents from a dense retrieval model, ANCE, and it learns to produce better query embeddings directly from relevance labels. It also keeps the document index unchanged to reduce overhead. ANCE-PRF significantly outperforms ANCE and other recent dense retrieval systems on several datasets. Analysis shows that the PRF encoder effectively captures the relevant and complementary information from PRF documents, while ignoring the noise with its learned attention mechanism.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Aiming to generalize the label knowledge from a source domain with continuous outputs to an unlabeled target domain, Domain Adaptation Regression (DAR) is developed for complex practical learning problems. However, due to the continuity problem in regression, existing conditional distribution alignment theory and methods with discrete prior, which are proven to be effective in classification settings, are no longer applicable. In this work, focusing on the feasibility problems in DAR, we establish the sufficiency theory for the regression model, which shows the generalization error can be sufficiently dominated by the cross-domain conditional discrepancy. Further, to characterize conditional discrepancy with continuous conditioning variable, a novel Conditional Operator Discrepancy (COD) is proposed, which admits the metric property on conditional distributions via the kernel embedding theory. Finally, to minimize the discrepancy, a COD-based conditional invariant representation learning model is proposed, and the reformulation is derived to show that reasonable modifications on moment statistics can further improve the discriminability of the adaptation model. Extensive experiments on standard DAR datasets verify the validity of theoretical results and the superiority over SOTA DAR methods.

Images generated by diffusion models like Stable Diffusion are increasingly widespread. Recent works and even lawsuits have shown that these models are prone to replicating their training data, unbeknownst to the user. In this paper, we first analyze this memorization problem in text-to-image diffusion models. While it is widely believed that duplicated images in the training set are responsible for content replication at inference time, we observe that the text conditioning of the model plays a similarly important role. In fact, we see in our experiments that data replication often does not happen for unconditional models, while it is common in the text-conditional case. Motivated by our findings, we then propose several techniques for reducing data replication at both training and inference time by randomizing and augmenting image captions in the training set.

When fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to align with human values and intentions, maximizing the estimated reward can lead to superior performance, but it also introduces potential risks due to deviations from the reference model's intended behavior. Most existing methods typically introduce KL divergence to constrain deviations between the trained model and the reference model; however, this may not be sufficient in certain applications that require tight risk control. In this paper, we introduce Risk-aware Direct Preference Optimization (Ra-DPO), a novel approach that incorporates risk-awareness by employing a class of nested risk measures. This approach formulates a constrained risk-aware advantage function maximization problem and then converts the Bradley-Terry model into a token-level representation. The objective function maximizes the likelihood of the policy while suppressing the deviation between a trained model and the reference model using a sequential risk ratio, thereby enhancing the model's risk-awareness. Experimental results across three open-source datasets: IMDb Dataset, Anthropic HH Dataset, and AlpacaEval, demonstrate the proposed method's superior performance in balancing alignment performance and model drift. Our code is opensourced at https://github.com/zlj123-max/Ra-DPO.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

This work explores conditional image generation with a new image density model based on the PixelCNN architecture. The model can be conditioned on any vector, including descriptive labels or tags, or latent embeddings created by other networks. When conditioned on class labels from the ImageNet database, the model is able to generate diverse, realistic scenes representing distinct animals, objects, landscapes and structures. When conditioned on an embedding produced by a convolutional network given a single image of an unseen face, it generates a variety of new portraits of the same person with different facial expressions, poses and lighting conditions. We also show that conditional PixelCNN can serve as a powerful decoder in an image autoencoder. Additionally, the gated convolutional layers in the proposed model improve the log-likelihood of PixelCNN to match the state-of-the-art performance of PixelRNN on ImageNet, with greatly reduced computational cost.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

African agriculture is undergoing rapid transformation. Annual maps of crop fields are key to understanding the nature of this transformation, but such maps are currently lacking and must be developed using advanced machine learning models trained on high resolution remote sensing imagery. To enable the development of such models, we delineated field boundaries in 33,746 Planet images captured between 2017 and 2023 across the continent using a custom labeling platform with built-in procedures for assessing and mitigating label error. We collected 42,403 labels, including 7,204 labels arising from tasks dedicated to assessing label quality (Class 1 labels), 32,167 from sites mapped once by a single labeller (Class 2) and 3,032 labels from sites where 3 or more labellers were tasked to map the same location (Class 4). Class 1 labels were used to calculate labeller-specific quality scores, while Class 1 and 4 sites mapped by at least 3 labellers were used to further evaluate label uncertainty using a Bayesian risk metric. Quality metrics showed that label quality was moderately high (0.75) for measures of total field extent, but low regarding the number of individual fields delineated (0.33), and the position of field edges (0.05). These values are expected when delineating small-scale fields in 3-5 m resolution imagery, which can be too coarse to reliably distinguish smaller fields, particularly in dense croplands, and therefore requires substantial labeller judgement. Nevertheless, previous work shows that such labels can train effective field mapping models. Furthermore, this large, probabilistic sample on its own provides valuable insight into regional agricultural characteristics, highlighting variations in the median field size and density. The imagery and vectorized labels along with quality information is available for download from two public repositories.

Conditional neural text generation models generate high-quality outputs, but often concentrate around a mode when what we really want is a diverse set of options. We present a search algorithm to construct lattices encoding a massive number of generation options. First, we restructure decoding as a best-first search, which explores the space differently than beam search and improves efficiency by avoiding pruning paths. Second, we revisit the idea of hypothesis recombination: we can identify pairs of similar generation candidates during search and merge them as an approximation. On both summarization and machine translation, we show that our algorithm encodes thousands of diverse options that remain grammatical and high-quality into one lattice. This algorithm provides a foundation for building downstream generation applications on top of massive-scale diverse outputs.

Conventional wisdom suggests that autoregressive models are used to process discrete data. When applied to continuous modalities such as visual data, Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR) typically resorts to quantization-based approaches to cast the data into a discrete space, which can introduce significant information loss. To tackle this issue, we introduce a Continuous VAR framework that enables direct visual autoregressive generation without vector quantization. The underlying theoretical foundation is strictly proper scoring rules, which provide powerful statistical tools capable of evaluating how well a generative model approximates the true distribution. Within this framework, all we need is to select a strictly proper score and set it as the training objective to optimize. We primarily explore a class of training objectives based on the energy score, which is likelihood-free and thus overcomes the difficulty of making probabilistic predictions in the continuous space. Previous efforts on continuous autoregressive generation, such as GIVT and diffusion loss, can also be derived from our framework using other strictly proper scores. Source code: https://github.com/shaochenze/EAR.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) with clustered latent spaces can perform conditional generation in a completely unsupervised manner. In the real world, the salient attributes of unlabeled data can be imbalanced. However, most of existing unsupervised conditional GANs cannot cluster attributes of these data in their latent spaces properly because they assume uniform distributions of the attributes. To address this problem, we theoretically derive Stein latent optimization that provides reparameterizable gradient estimations of the latent distribution parameters assuming a Gaussian mixture prior in a continuous latent space. Structurally, we introduce an encoder network and novel unsupervised conditional contrastive loss to ensure that data generated from a single mixture component represent a single attribute. We confirm that the proposed method, named Stein Latent Optimization for GANs (SLOGAN), successfully learns balanced or imbalanced attributes and achieves state-of-the-art unsupervised conditional generation performance even in the absence of attribute information (e.g., the imbalance ratio). Moreover, we demonstrate that the attributes to be learned can be manipulated using a small amount of probe data.

Recently, sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models with the Transformer architecture have achieved remarkable performance on various conditional text generation tasks, such as machine translation. However, most of them are trained with teacher forcing with the ground truth label given at each time step, without being exposed to incorrectly generated tokens during training, which hurts its generalization to unseen inputs, that is known as the "exposure bias" problem. In this work, we propose to mitigate the conditional text generation problem by contrasting positive pairs with negative pairs, such that the model is exposed to various valid or incorrect perturbations of the inputs, for improved generalization. However, training the model with naive contrastive learning framework using random non-target sequences as negative examples is suboptimal, since they are easily distinguishable from the correct output, especially so with models pretrained with large text corpora. Also, generating positive examples requires domain-specific augmentation heuristics which may not generalize over diverse domains. To tackle this problem, we propose a principled method to generate positive and negative samples for contrastive learning of seq2seq models. Specifically, we generate negative examples by adding small perturbations to the input sequence to minimize its conditional likelihood, and positive examples by adding large perturbations while enforcing it to have a high conditional likelihood. Such "hard" positive and negative pairs generated using our method guides the model to better distinguish correct outputs from incorrect ones. We empirically show that our proposed method significantly improves the generalization of the seq2seq on three text generation tasks - machine translation, text summarization, and question generation.

Two lines of work are taking the central stage in AI research. On the one hand, the community is making increasing efforts to build models that discard spurious correlations and generalize better in novel test environments. Unfortunately, the bitter lesson so far is that no proposal convincingly outperforms a simple empirical risk minimization baseline. On the other hand, large language models (LLMs) have erupted as algorithms able to learn in-context, generalizing on-the-fly to eclectic contextual circumstances that users enforce by means of prompting. In this paper, we argue that context is environment, and posit that in-context learning holds the key to better domain generalization. Via extensive theory and experiments, we show that paying attention to contextx2013x2013unlabeled examples as they arrivex2013x2013allows our proposed In-Context Risk Minimization (ICRM) algorithm to zoom-in on the test environment risk minimizer, leading to significant out-of-distribution performance improvements. From all of this, two messages are worth taking home. Researchers in domain generalization should consider environment as context, and harness the adaptive power of in-context learning. Researchers in LLMs should consider context as environment, to better structure data towards generalization.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has been crucial in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values. Traditionally, RLHF involves generating responses to a query and using a reward model to assign a reward to the entire response. However, this approach faces challenges due to its reliance on a single, sparse reward, which makes it challenging for the model to identify which parts of the sequence contribute most significantly to the final reward. Recent methods have attempted to address this limitation by introducing token-level rewards. However, these methods often rely on either a trained credit assignment model or AI annotators, raising concerns about the quality and reliability of the rewards. In this paper, we propose token-level reward regularization (T-REG), a novel approach that leverages both sequence-level and token-level rewards for preference optimization. Harnessing the self-refinement capabilities of LLMs, our method uses contrastive prompting to enable LLMs to self-generate token-level rewards. These self-generated rewards then act as reward regularization, guiding the model to more effectively distribute sequence-level rewards across tokens. This facilitates better token-level credit assignment and enhances alignment performance. Experiments on the instruction following benchmarks, including Alpaca Eval 2 and Arena-Hard, show that our method consistently outperforms baseline methods by up to 3.8% and 4.4%, respectively. We will release the code and models at https://github.com/wzhouad/T-REG.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) generation by using an efficient draft model to propose the next few tokens, which are verified by the LLM in a single forward call, reducing latency while preserving its outputs. We focus on retrieval-based SD where the draft model retrieves the next tokens from a non-parametric datastore. Sparse retrieval (REST), which operates on the surface form of strings, is currently the dominant paradigm due to its simplicity and scalability. However, its effectiveness is limited due to the usage of short contexts and exact string matching. Instead, we introduce Dense Retrieval for Speculative Decoding (DReSD), a novel framework that uses approximate nearest neighbour search with contextualised token embeddings to retrieve the most semantically relevant token sequences for SD. Extensive experiments show that DReSD achieves (on average) 87% higher acceptance rates, 65% longer accepted tokens and 19% faster generation speeds compared to sparse retrieval (REST).

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has become a pivot technique in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. In RLHF practice, preference data plays a crucial role in bridging human proclivity and LLMs. However, the scarcity of diverse, naturalistic datasets of human preferences on LLM outputs at scale poses a great challenge to RLHF as well as feedback learning research within the open-source community. Current preference datasets, either proprietary or limited in size and prompt variety, result in limited RLHF adoption in open-source models and hinder further exploration. In this study, we propose ULTRAFEEDBACK, a large-scale, high-quality, and diversified preference dataset designed to overcome these limitations and foster RLHF development. To create ULTRAFEEDBACK, we compile a diverse array of instructions and models from multiple sources to produce comparative data. We meticulously devise annotation instructions and employ GPT-4 to offer detailed feedback in both numerical and textual forms. ULTRAFEEDBACK establishes a reproducible and expandable preference data construction pipeline, serving as a solid foundation for future RLHF and feedback learning research. Utilizing ULTRAFEEDBACK, we train various models to demonstrate its effectiveness, including the reward model UltraRM, chat language model UltraLM-13B-PPO, and critique model UltraCM. Experimental results indicate that our models outperform existing open-source models, achieving top performance across multiple benchmarks. Our data and models are available at https://github.com/thunlp/UltraFeedback.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Despite the remarkable progress in the development of predictive models for healthcare, applying these algorithms on a large scale has been challenging. Algorithms trained on a particular task, based on specific data formats available in a set of medical records, tend to not generalize well to other tasks or databases in which the data fields may differ. To address this challenge, we propose General Healthcare Predictive Framework (GenHPF), which is applicable to any EHR with minimal preprocessing for multiple prediction tasks. GenHPF resolves heterogeneity in medical codes and schemas by converting EHRs into a hierarchical textual representation while incorporating as many features as possible. To evaluate the efficacy of GenHPF, we conduct multi-task learning experiments with single-source and multi-source settings, on three publicly available EHR datasets with different schemas for 12 clinically meaningful prediction tasks. Our framework significantly outperforms baseline models that utilize domain knowledge in multi-source learning, improving average AUROC by 1.2%P in pooled learning and 2.6%P in transfer learning while also showing comparable results when trained on a single EHR dataset. Furthermore, we demonstrate that self-supervised pretraining using multi-source datasets is effective when combined with GenHPF, resulting in a 0.6%P AUROC improvement compared to models without pretraining. By eliminating the need for preprocessing and feature engineering, we believe that this work offers a solid framework for multi-task and multi-source learning that can be leveraged to speed up the scaling and usage of predictive algorithms in healthcare.

The wide dissemination of fake news is increasingly threatening both individuals and society. Fake news detection aims to train a model on the past news and detect fake news of the future. Though great efforts have been made, existing fake news detection methods overlooked the unintended entity bias in the real-world data, which seriously influences models' generalization ability to future data. For example, 97\% of news pieces in 2010-2017 containing the entity `Donald Trump' are real in our data, but the percentage falls down to merely 33\% in 2018. This would lead the model trained on the former set to hardly generalize to the latter, as it tends to predict news pieces about `Donald Trump' as real for lower training loss. In this paper, we propose an entity debiasing framework (ENDEF) which generalizes fake news detection models to the future data by mitigating entity bias from a cause-effect perspective. Based on the causal graph among entities, news contents, and news veracity, we separately model the contribution of each cause (entities and contents) during training. In the inference stage, we remove the direct effect of the entities to mitigate entity bias. Extensive offline experiments on the English and Chinese datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework can largely improve the performance of base fake news detectors, and online tests verify its superiority in practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to explicitly improve the generalization ability of fake news detection models to the future data. The code has been released at https://github.com/ICTMCG/ENDEF-SIGIR2022.

Federated learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm that enables multiple clients to learn a powerful global model by aggregating local training. However, the performance of the global model is often hampered by non-i.i.d. distribution among the clients, requiring extensive efforts to mitigate inter-client data heterogeneity. Going beyond inter-client data heterogeneity, we note that intra-client heterogeneity can also be observed on complex real-world data and seriously deteriorate FL performance. In this paper, we present a novel FL algorithm, i.e., FedIns, to handle intra-client data heterogeneity by enabling instance-adaptive inference in the FL framework. Instead of huge instance-adaptive models, we resort to a parameter-efficient fine-tuning method, i.e., scale and shift deep features (SSF), upon a pre-trained model. Specifically, we first train an SSF pool for each client, and aggregate these SSF pools on the server side, thus still maintaining a low communication cost. To enable instance-adaptive inference, for a given instance, we dynamically find the best-matched SSF subsets from the pool and aggregate them to generate an adaptive SSF specified for the instance, thereby reducing the intra-client as well as the inter-client heterogeneity. Extensive experiments show that our FedIns outperforms state-of-the-art FL algorithms, e.g., a 6.64\% improvement against the top-performing method with less than 15\% communication cost on Tiny-ImageNet. Our code and models will be publicly released.

The reward model has become increasingly important in alignment, assessment, and data construction for large language models (LLMs). Most existing researchers focus on enhancing reward models through data improvements, following the conventional training framework for reward models that directly optimizes the predicted rewards. In this paper, we propose a hybrid alignment framework HaF-RM for reward model training by introducing an additional constraint on token-level policy probabilities in addition to the reward score. It can simultaneously supervise the internal preference model at the token level and optimize the mapping layer of the reward model at the sequence level. Theoretical justifications and experiment results on five datasets show the validity and effectiveness of our proposed hybrid framework for training a high-quality reward model. By decoupling the reward modeling procedure and incorporating hybrid supervision, our HaF-RM framework offers a principled and effective approach to enhancing the performance and alignment of reward models, a critical component in the responsible development of powerful language models. We release our code at https://haf-rm.github.io.

Transforming two-dimensional (2D) images into three-dimensional (3D) volumes is a well-known yet challenging problem for the computer vision community. In the medical domain, a few previous studies attempted to convert two or more input radiographs into computed tomography (CT) volumes. Following their effort, we introduce a diffusion model-based technology that can rotate the anatomical content of any input radiograph in 3D space, potentially enabling the visualization of the entire anatomical content of the radiograph from any viewpoint in 3D. Similar to previous studies, we used CT volumes to create Digitally Reconstructed Radiographs (DRRs) as the training data for our model. However, we addressed two significant limitations encountered in previous studies: 1. We utilized conditional diffusion models with classifier-free guidance instead of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to achieve higher mode coverage and improved output image quality, with the only trade-off being slower inference time, which is often less critical in medical applications; and 2. We demonstrated that the unreliable output of style transfer deep learning (DL) models, such as Cycle-GAN, to transfer the style of actual radiographs to DRRs could be replaced with a simple yet effective training transformation that randomly changes the pixel intensity histograms of the input and ground-truth imaging data during training. This transformation makes the diffusion model agnostic to any distribution variations of the input data pixel intensity, enabling the reliable training of a DL model on input DRRs and applying the exact same model to conventional radiographs (or DRRs) during inference.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MoI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MoI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhD-level QA tasks, MoI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen-32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated great promise in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preference. Depending on the availability of preference data, both online and offline RLHF are active areas of investigation. A key bottleneck is understanding how to incorporate uncertainty estimation in the reward function learned from the preference data for RLHF, regardless of how the preference data is collected. While the principles of optimism or pessimism under uncertainty are well-established in standard reinforcement learning (RL), a practically-implementable and theoretically-grounded form amenable to large language models is not yet available, as standard techniques for constructing confidence intervals become intractable under arbitrary policy parameterizations. In this paper, we introduce a unified approach to online and offline RLHF -- value-incentivized preference optimization (VPO) -- which regularizes the maximum-likelihood estimate of the reward function with the corresponding value function, modulated by a sign to indicate whether the optimism or pessimism is chosen. VPO also directly optimizes the policy with implicit reward modeling, and therefore shares a simpler RLHF pipeline similar to direct preference optimization. Theoretical guarantees of VPO are provided for both online and offline settings, matching the rates of their standard RL counterparts. Moreover, experiments on text summarization and dialog verify the practicality and effectiveness of VPO.

We present Simplex Random Features (SimRFs), a new random feature (RF) mechanism for unbiased approximation of the softmax and Gaussian kernels by geometrical correlation of random projection vectors. We prove that SimRFs provide the smallest possible mean square error (MSE) on unbiased estimates of these kernels among the class of weight-independent geometrically-coupled positive random feature (PRF) mechanisms, substantially outperforming the previously most accurate Orthogonal Random Features at no observable extra cost. We present a more computationally expensive SimRFs+ variant, which we prove is asymptotically optimal in the broader family of weight-dependent geometrical coupling schemes (which permit correlations between random vector directions and norms). In extensive empirical studies, we show consistent gains provided by SimRFs in settings including pointwise kernel estimation, nonparametric classification and scalable Transformers.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

Conventional federated learning (FL) frameworks follow a server-driven model where the server determines session initiation and client participation, which faces challenges in accommodating clients' asynchronous needs for model updates. We introduce Client-Driven Federated Learning (CDFL), a novel FL framework that puts clients at the driving role. In CDFL, each client independently and asynchronously updates its model by uploading the locally trained model to the server and receiving a customized model tailored to its local task. The server maintains a repository of cluster models, iteratively refining them using received client models. Our framework accommodates complex dynamics in clients' data distributions, characterized by time-varying mixtures of cluster distributions, enabling rapid adaptation to new tasks with superior performance. In contrast to traditional clustered FL protocols that send multiple cluster models to a client to perform distribution estimation, we propose a paradigm that offloads the estimation task to the server and only sends a single model to a client, and novel strategies to improve estimation accuracy. We provide a theoretical analysis of CDFL's convergence. Extensive experiments across various datasets and system settings highlight CDFL's substantial advantages in model performance and computation efficiency over baselines.

The Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) is a quantity that plays a key role in variational inference. It can also be used as a criterion in model selection. However, though extremely popular in practice in the variational Bayes community, there has never been a general theoretic justification for selecting based on the ELBO. In this paper, we show that the ELBO maximization strategy has strong theoretical guarantees, and is robust to model misspecification while most works rely on the assumption that one model is correctly specified. We illustrate our theoretical results by an application to the selection of the number of principal components in probabilistic PCA.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Training energy-based models (EBMs) on high-dimensional data can be both challenging and time-consuming, and there exists a noticeable gap in sample quality between EBMs and other generative frameworks like GANs and diffusion models. To close this gap, inspired by the recent efforts of learning EBMs by maximizing diffusion recovery likelihood (DRL), we propose cooperative diffusion recovery likelihood (CDRL), an effective approach to tractably learn and sample from a series of EBMs defined on increasingly noisy versions of a dataset, paired with an initializer model for each EBM. At each noise level, the two models are jointly estimated within a cooperative training framework: samples from the initializer serve as starting points that are refined by a few MCMC sampling steps from the EBM. The EBM is then optimized by maximizing recovery likelihood, while the initializer model is optimized by learning from the difference between the refined samples and the initial samples. In addition, we made several practical designs for EBM training to further improve the sample quality. Combining these advances, our approach significantly boost the generation performance compared to existing EBM methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our models for several downstream tasks, including classifier-free guided generation, compositional generation, image inpainting and out-of-distribution detection.

Reward models (RM) capture the values and preferences of humans and play a central role in Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) to align pretrained large language models (LLMs). Traditionally, training these models relies on extensive human-annotated preference data, which poses significant challenges in terms of scalability and cost. To overcome these limitations, we propose Semi-Supervised Reward Modeling (SSRM), an approach that enhances RM training using unlabeled data. Given an unlabeled dataset, SSRM involves three key iterative steps: pseudo-labeling unlabeled examples, selecting high-confidence examples through a confidence threshold, and supervised finetuning on the refined dataset. Across extensive experiments on various model configurations, we demonstrate that SSRM significantly improves reward models without incurring additional labeling costs. Notably, SSRM can achieve performance comparable to models trained entirely on labeled data of equivalent volumes. Overall, SSRM substantially reduces the dependency on large volumes of human-annotated data, thereby decreasing the overall cost and time involved in training effective reward models.

We explore the potential of large-scale noisily labeled data to enhance feature learning by pretraining semantic segmentation models within a multi-modal framework for geospatial applications. We propose a novel Cross-modal Sample Selection (CromSS) method, a weakly supervised pretraining strategy designed to improve feature representations through cross-modal consistency and noise mitigation techniques. Unlike conventional pretraining approaches, CromSS exploits massive amounts of noisy and easy-to-come-by labels for improved feature learning beneficial to semantic segmentation tasks. We investigate middle and late fusion strategies to optimize the multi-modal pretraining architecture design. We also introduce a cross-modal sample selection module to mitigate the adverse effects of label noise, which employs a cross-modal entangling strategy to refine the estimated confidence masks within each modality to guide the sampling process. Additionally, we introduce a spatial-temporal label smoothing technique to counteract overconfidence for enhanced robustness against noisy labels. To validate our approach, we assembled the multi-modal dataset, NoLDO-S12, which consists of a large-scale noisy label subset from Google's Dynamic World (DW) dataset for pretraining and two downstream subsets with high-quality labels from Google DW and OpenStreetMap (OSM) for transfer learning. Experimental results on two downstream tasks and the publicly available DFC2020 dataset demonstrate that when effectively utilized, the low-cost noisy labels can significantly enhance feature learning for segmentation tasks. All data, code, and pretrained weights will be made publicly available.

The emergence of long-context large language models (LLMs) offers a promising alternative to traditional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for processing extensive documents. However, the computational overhead of long-context inference, particularly in managing key-value (KV) caches, presents significant efficiency challenges. While Speculative Decoding (SD) traditionally accelerates inference using smaller draft models, its effectiveness diminishes substantially in long-context scenarios due to memory-bound KV cache operations. We present Retrieval-Augmented Speculative Decoding (RAPID), which leverages RAG for both accelerating and enhancing generation quality in long-context inference. RAPID introduces the RAG drafter-a draft LLM operating on shortened retrieval contexts-to speculate on the generation of long-context target LLMs. Our approach enables a new paradigm where same-scale or even larger LLMs can serve as RAG drafters while maintaining computational efficiency. To fully leverage the potentially superior capabilities from stronger RAG drafters, we develop an inference-time knowledge transfer dynamic that enriches the target distribution by RAG. Extensive experiments on the LLaMA-3.1 and Qwen2.5 backbones demonstrate that RAPID effectively integrates the strengths of both approaches, achieving significant performance improvements (e.g., from 39.33 to 42.83 on InfiniteBench for LLaMA-3.1-8B) with more than 2x speedups. Our analyses reveal that RAPID achieves robust acceleration beyond 32K context length and demonstrates superior generation quality in real-world applications.

The change in data distribution over time, also known as concept drift, poses a significant challenge to the reliability of online learning methods. Existing methods typically require model retraining or drift detection, both of which demand high computational costs and are often unsuitable for real-time applications. To address these limitations, a lightweight, fast and efficient random vector functional-link network termed Lite-RVFL is proposed, capable of adapting to concept drift without drift detection and retraining. Lite-RVFL introduces a novel objective function that assigns weights exponentially increasing to new samples, thereby emphasizing recent data and enabling timely adaptation. Theoretical analysis confirms the feasibility of this objective function for drift adaptation, and an efficient incremental update rule is derived. Experimental results on a real-world safety assessment task validate the efficiency, effectiveness in adapting to drift, and potential to capture temporal patterns of Lite-RVFL. The source code is available at https://github.com/songqiaohu/Lite-RVFL.

The output structure of database-like tables, consisting of values structured in horizontal rows and vertical columns identifiable by name, can cover a wide range of NLP tasks. Following this constatation, we propose a framework for text-to-table neural models applicable to problems such as extraction of line items, joint entity and relation extraction, or knowledge base population. The permutation-based decoder of our proposal is a generalized sequential method that comprehends information from all cells in the table. The training maximizes the expected log-likelihood for a table's content across all random permutations of the factorization order. During the content inference, we exploit the model's ability to generate cells in any order by searching over possible orderings to maximize the model's confidence and avoid substantial error accumulation, which other sequential models are prone to. Experiments demonstrate a high practical value of the framework, which establishes state-of-the-art results on several challenging datasets, outperforming previous solutions by up to 15%.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential in natural language processing tasks within the financial domain. In this work, we present a Chinese Financial Generative Pre-trained Transformer framework, named CFGPT, which includes a dataset~(CFData) for pre-training and supervised fine-tuning, a financial LLM~(CFLLM) to adeptly manage financial texts, and a deployment framework~(CFAPP) designed to navigate real-world financial applications. The CFData comprising both a pre-training dataset and a supervised fine-tuning dataset, where the pre-training dataset collates Chinese financial data and analytics, alongside a smaller subset of general-purpose text with 584M documents and 141B tokens in total, and the supervised fine-tuning dataset is tailored for six distinct financial tasks, embodying various facets of financial analysis and decision-making with 1.5M instruction pairs and 1.5B tokens in total. The CFLLM, which is based on InternLM-7B to balance the model capability and size, is trained on CFData in two stage, continued pre-training and supervised fine-tuning. The CFAPP is centered on large language models (LLMs) and augmented with additional modules to ensure multifaceted functionality in real-world application. Our codes are released at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/CFGPT.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a important paradigm for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences during post-training. This framework typically involves two stages: first, training a reward model on human preference data, followed by optimizing the language model using reinforcement learning algorithms. However, current RLHF approaches may constrained by two limitations. First, existing RLHF frameworks often rely on Bradley-Terry models to assign scalar rewards based on pairwise comparisons of individual responses. However, this approach imposes significant challenges on reward model (RM), as the inherent variability in prompt-response pairs across different contexts demands robust calibration capabilities from the RM. Second, reward models are typically initialized from generative foundation models, such as pre-trained or supervised fine-tuned models, despite the fact that reward models perform discriminative tasks, creating a mismatch. This paper introduces Pairwise-RL, a RLHF framework that addresses these challenges through a combination of generative reward modeling and a pairwise proximal policy optimization (PPO) algorithm. Pairwise-RL unifies reward model training and its application during reinforcement learning within a consistent pairwise paradigm, leveraging generative modeling techniques to enhance reward model performance and score calibration. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that Pairwise-RL outperforms traditional RLHF frameworks across both internal evaluation datasets and standard public benchmarks, underscoring its effectiveness in improving alignment and model behavior.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

We consider multi-draft speculative sampling, where the proposal sequences are sampled independently from different draft models. At each step, a token-level draft selection scheme takes a list of valid tokens as input and produces an output token whose distribution matches that of the target model. Previous works have demonstrated that the optimal scheme (which maximizes the probability of accepting one of the input tokens) can be cast as a solution to a linear program. In this work we show that the optimal scheme can be decomposed into a two-step solution: in the first step an importance sampling (IS) type scheme is used to select one intermediate token; in the second step (single-draft) speculative sampling is applied to generate the output token. For the case of two identical draft models we further 1) establish a necessary and sufficient condition on the distributions of the target and draft models for the acceptance probability to equal one and 2) provide an explicit expression for the optimal acceptance probability. Our theoretical analysis also motives a new class of token-level selection scheme based on weighted importance sampling. Our experimental results demonstrate consistent improvements in the achievable block efficiency and token rates over baseline schemes in a number of scenarios.

Speculative decoding accelerates inference in large language models (LLMs) by generating draft tokens for target model verification. Current approaches for obtaining draft tokens rely on lightweight draft models or additional model structures to generate draft tokens and retrieve context from databases. Due to the draft model's small size and limited training data, model-based speculative decoding frequently becomes less effective in out-of-domain scenarios. Additionally, the time cost of the drafting phase results in a low upper limit on acceptance length during the verification step, limiting overall efficiency. This paper proposes RASD (Retrieval-Augmented Speculative Decoding), which adopts retrieval methods to enhance model-based speculative decoding. We introduce tree pruning and tree fusion to achieve this. Specifically, we develop a pruning method based on the draft model's probability distribution to construct the optimal retrieval tree. Second, we employ the longest prefix matching algorithm to merge the tree generated by the draft model with the retrieval tree, resulting in a unified tree for verification. Experimental results demonstrate that RASD achieves state-of-the-art inference acceleration across tasks such as DocQA, Summary, Code, and In-Domain QA. Moreover, RASD exhibits strong scalability, seamlessly integrating with various speculative decoding approaches, including both generation-based and retrieval-based methods.

This paper studies the topic modeling problem of tagged documents and images. Higher-order relations among tagged documents and images are major and ubiquitous characteristics, and play positive roles in extracting reliable and interpretable topics. In this paper, we propose the tag-topic models (TTM) to depict such higher-order topic structural dependencies within the Markov random field (MRF) framework. First, we use the novel factor graph representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic models from the MRF perspective, and present an efficient loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Second, we propose the factor hypergraph representation of TTM, and focus on both pairwise and higher-order relation modeling among tagged documents and images. Efficient loopy BP algorithm is developed to learn TTM, which encourages the topic labeling smoothness among tagged documents and images. Extensive experimental results confirm the incorporation of higher-order relations to be effective in enhancing the overall topic modeling performance, when compared with current state-of-the-art topic models, in many text and image mining tasks of broad interests such as word and link prediction, document classification, and tag recommendation.

Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning problem where only aggregate level labels are available for groups of instances, called bags, during training, and the aim is to get the best performance at the instance-level on the test data. This setting arises in domains like advertising and medicine due to privacy considerations. We propose a novel algorithmic framework for this problem that iteratively performs two main steps. For the first step (Pseudo Labeling) in every iteration, we define a Gibbs distribution over binary instance labels that incorporates a) covariate information through the constraint that instances with similar covariates should have similar labels and b) the bag level aggregated label. We then use Belief Propagation (BP) to marginalize the Gibbs distribution to obtain pseudo labels. In the second step (Embedding Refinement), we use the pseudo labels to provide supervision for a learner that yields a better embedding. Further, we iterate on the two steps again by using the second step's embeddings as new covariates for the next iteration. In the final iteration, a classifier is trained using the pseudo labels. Our algorithm displays strong gains against several SOTA baselines (up to 15%) for the LLP Binary Classification problem on various dataset types - tabular and Image. We achieve these improvements with minimal computational overhead above standard supervised learning due to Belief Propagation, for large bag sizes, even for a million samples.

Efficient inference in large language models (LLMs) has become a critical focus as their scale and complexity grow. Traditional autoregressive decoding, while effective, suffers from computational inefficiencies due to its sequential token generation process. Speculative decoding addresses this bottleneck by introducing a two-stage framework: drafting and verification. A smaller, efficient model generates a preliminary draft, which is then refined by a larger, more sophisticated model. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of speculative decoding methods, categorizing them into draft-centric and model-centric approaches. We discuss key ideas associated with each method, highlighting their potential for scaling LLM inference. This survey aims to guide future research in optimizing speculative decoding and its integration into real-world LLM applications.

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive accuracy of the draft model, particularly when faced with diverse text inputs and a significant capability gap between the draft and target models. We introduce online speculative decoding (OSD) to address this challenge. The main idea is to continually update (multiple) draft model(s) on observed user query data using the abundant excess computational power in an LLM serving cluster. Given that LLM inference is memory-bounded, the surplus computational power in a typical LLM serving cluster can be repurposed for online retraining of draft models, thereby making the training cost-neutral. Since the query distribution of an LLM service is relatively simple, retraining on query distribution enables the draft model to more accurately predict the target model's outputs, particularly on data originating from query distributions. As the draft model evolves online, it aligns with the query distribution in real time, mitigating distribution shifts. We develop a prototype of online speculative decoding based on online knowledge distillation and evaluate it using both synthetic and real query data on several popular LLMs. The results show a substantial increase in the token acceptance rate by 0.1 to 0.65, which translates into 1.22x to 3.06x latency reduction.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of recommender systems (RS) emerges as a crucial issue. Traditional offline evaluation methods for RS typically focus on immediate user feedback, such as clicks, but they often neglect the long-term impact of content creators. On real-world content platforms, creators can strategically produce and upload new items based on user feedback and preference trends. While previous studies have attempted to model creator behavior, they often overlook the role of information asymmetry. This asymmetry arises because creators primarily have access to feedback on the items they produce, while platforms possess data on the entire spectrum of user feedback. Current RS simulators, however, fail to account for this asymmetry, leading to inaccurate long-term evaluations. To address this gap, we propose CreAgent, a Large Language Model (LLM)-empowered creator simulation agent. By incorporating game theory's belief mechanism and the fast-and-slow thinking framework, CreAgent effectively simulates creator behavior under conditions of information asymmetry. Additionally, we enhance CreAgent's simulation ability by fine-tuning it using Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). Our credibility validation experiments show that CreAgent aligns well with the behaviors between real-world platform and creator, thus improving the reliability of long-term RS evaluations. Moreover, through the simulation of RS involving CreAgents, we can explore how fairness- and diversity-aware RS algorithms contribute to better long-term performance for various stakeholders. CreAgent and the simulation platform are publicly available at https://github.com/shawnye2000/CreAgent.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

Continual relation extraction (CRE) aims to extract relations towards the continuous and iterative arrival of new data, of which the major challenge is the catastrophic forgetting of old tasks. In order to alleviate this critical problem for enhanced CRE performance, we propose a novel Continual Relation Extraction framework with Contrastive Learning, namely CRECL, which is built with a classification network and a prototypical contrastive network to achieve the incremental-class learning of CRE. Specifically, in the contrastive network a given instance is contrasted with the prototype of each candidate relations stored in the memory module. Such contrastive learning scheme ensures the data distributions of all tasks more distinguishable, so as to alleviate the catastrophic forgetting further. Our experiment results not only demonstrate our CRECL's advantage over the state-of-the-art baselines on two public datasets, but also verify the effectiveness of CRECL's contrastive learning on improving CRE performance.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to predict multiple tokens, and a large target model to verify these tokens in parallel. Recent studies leverage the hidden state of the target model to enhance draft model prediction accuracy. However, existing methods suffer from the degrading quality of draft token predictions at later positions, due to error accumulation in draft model generated features. In this paper, we propose Position Specialists (PosS), which consist of multiple position-specialized draft layers to generate tokens at assigned position(s). Position specialists greatly improve token acceptance rate at later positions per drafting round, as each specialist only needs to focus on handling a certain level of draft model feature deviation. Experiment results on Llama-3-8B-Instruct and Llama-2-13B-chat across six datasets demonstrate that PosS effectively improves over baselines on average acceptance length and speed-up ratio. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/shrango/PosS.

Reward models (RMs) play a pivotal role in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human values. However, noisy preferences in human feedback can lead to reward misgeneralization - a phenomenon where reward models learn spurious correlations or overfit to noisy preferences, which poses important challenges to the generalization of RMs. This paper systematically analyzes the characteristics of preference pairs and aims to identify how noisy preferences differ from human-aligned preferences in reward modeling. Our analysis reveals that noisy preferences are difficult for RMs to fit, as they cause sharp training fluctuations and irregular gradient updates. These distinctive dynamics suggest the feasibility of identifying and excluding such noisy preferences. Empirical studies demonstrate that policy LLM optimized with a reward model trained on the full preference dataset, which includes substantial noise, performs worse than the one trained on a subset of exclusively high quality preferences. To address this challenge, we propose an online Collaborative Reward Modeling (CRM) framework to achieve robust preference learning through peer review and curriculum learning. In particular, CRM maintains two RMs that collaboratively filter potential noisy preferences by peer-reviewing each other's data selections. Curriculum learning synchronizes the capabilities of two models, mitigating excessive disparities to promote the utility of peer review. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRM significantly enhances RM generalization, with up to 9.94 points improvement on RewardBench under an extreme 40\% noise. Moreover, CRM can seamlessly extend to implicit-reward alignment methods, offering a robust and versatile alignment strategy.

We show that BERT (Devlin et al., 2018) is a Markov random field language model. This formulation gives way to a natural procedure to sample sentences from BERT. We generate from BERT and find that it can produce high-quality, fluent generations. Compared to the generations of a traditional left-to-right language model, BERT generates sentences that are more diverse but of slightly worse quality.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Solving complex classification tasks using deep neural networks typically requires large amounts of annotated data. However, corresponding class labels are noisy when provided by error-prone annotators, e.g., crowd workers. Training standard deep neural networks leads to subpar performances in such multi-annotator supervised learning settings. We address this issue by presenting a probabilistic training framework named multi-annotator deep learning (MaDL). A ground truth and an annotator performance model are jointly trained in an end-to-end learning approach. The ground truth model learns to predict instances' true class labels, while the annotator performance model infers probabilistic estimates of annotators' performances. A modular network architecture enables us to make varying assumptions regarding annotators' performances, e.g., an optional class or instance dependency. Further, we learn annotator embeddings to estimate annotators' densities within a latent space as proxies of their potentially correlated annotations. Together with a weighted loss function, we improve the learning from correlated annotation patterns. In a comprehensive evaluation, we examine three research questions about multi-annotator supervised learning. Our findings indicate MaDL's state-of-the-art performance and robustness against many correlated, spamming annotators.

Controllable text generation systems often leverage control codes to direct various properties of the output like style and length. Inspired by recent work on causal inference for NLP, this paper reveals a previously overlooked flaw in these control code-based conditional text generation algorithms. Spurious correlations in the training data can lead models to incorrectly rely on parts of the input other than the control code for attribute selection, significantly undermining downstream generation quality and controllability. We demonstrate the severity of this issue with a series of case studies and then propose two simple techniques to reduce these correlations in training sets. The first technique is based on resampling the data according to an example's propensity towards each linguistic attribute (IPS). The second produces multiple counterfactual versions of each example and then uses an additional feedback mechanism to remove noisy examples (feedback aware self-training, FAST). We evaluate on 3 tasks -- news headline, meta review, and search ads generation -- and demonstrate that FAST can significantly improve the controllability and language quality of generated outputs when compared to state-of-the-art controllable text generation approaches.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), with recent innovations such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) demonstrating exceptional effectiveness. In this study, we identify a critical yet underexplored issue in RL training: low-probability tokens disproportionately influence model updates due to their large gradient magnitudes. This dominance hinders the effective learning of high-probability tokens, whose gradients are essential for LLMs' performance but are substantially suppressed. To mitigate this interference, we propose two novel methods: Advantage Reweighting and Low-Probability Token Isolation (Lopti), both of which effectively attenuate gradients from low-probability tokens while emphasizing parameter updates driven by high-probability tokens. Our approaches promote balanced updates across tokens with varying probabilities, thereby enhancing the efficiency of RL training. Experimental results demonstrate that they substantially improve the performance of GRPO-trained LLMs, achieving up to a 46.2% improvement in K&K Logic Puzzle reasoning tasks. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/zhyang2226/AR-Lopti.

Purpose: Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have expanded their capabilities in a multimodal fashion, potentially replicating the image interpretation of human radiologists. This study aimed to develop open-source multimodal large language model for interpreting chest X-ray images (CXR-LLaVA). We also examined the effect of prompt engineering and model parameters such as temperature and nucleus sampling. Materials and Methods: For training, we collected 659,287 publicly available CXRs: 417,336 CXRs had labels for certain radiographic abnormalities (dataset 1); 241,951 CXRs provided free-text radiology reports (dataset 2). After pre-training the Resnet50 as an image encoder, the contrastive language-image pre-training was used to align CXRs and corresponding radiographic abnormalities. Then, the Large Language Model Meta AI-2 was fine-tuned using dataset 2, which were refined using GPT-4, with generating various question answering scenarios. The code can be found at https://github.com/ECOFRI/CXR_LLaVA. Results: In the test set, we observed that the model's performance fluctuated based on its parameters. On average, it achieved F1 score of 0.34 for five pathologic findings (atelectasis, cardiomegaly, consolidation, edema, and pleural effusion), which was improved to 0.46 through prompt engineering. In the independent set, the model achieved an average F1 score of 0.30 for the same pathologic findings. Notably, for the pediatric chest radiograph dataset, which was unseen during training, the model differentiated abnormal radiographs with an F1 score ranging from 0.84 to 0.85. Conclusion: CXR-LLaVA demonstrates promising potential in CXR interpretation. Both prompt engineering and model parameter adjustments can play pivotal roles in interpreting CXRs.

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

The performance of large language models (LLMs) is closely linked to their underlying size, leading to ever-growing networks and hence slower inference. Speculative decoding has been proposed as a technique to accelerate autoregressive generation, leveraging a fast draft model to propose candidate tokens, which are then verified in parallel based on their likelihood under the target model. While this approach guarantees to reproduce the target output, it incurs a substantial penalty: many high-quality draft tokens are rejected, even when they represent objectively valid continuations. Indeed, we show that even powerful draft models such as GPT-4o, as well as human text cannot achieve high acceptance rates under the standard verification scheme. This severely limits the speedup potential of current speculative decoding methods, as an early rejection becomes overwhelmingly likely when solely relying on alignment of draft and target. We thus ask the following question: Can we adapt verification to recognize correct, but non-aligned replies? To this end, we draw inspiration from the LLM-as-a-judge framework, which demonstrated that LLMs are able to rate answers in a versatile way. We carefully design a dataset to elicit the same capability in the target model by training a compact module on top of the embeddings to produce ``judgements" of the current continuation. We showcase our strategy on the Llama-3.1 family, where our 8b/405B-Judge achieves a speedup of 9x over Llama-405B, while maintaining its quality on a large range of benchmarks. These benefits remain present even in optimized inference frameworks, where our method reaches up to 141 tokens/s for 8B/70B-Judge and 129 tokens/s for 8B/405B on 2 and 8 H100s respectively.

Generative models have achieved remarkable success in image, video, and text domains. Inspired by this, researchers have explored utilizing generative models to generate neural network parameters. However, these efforts have been limited by the parameter size and the practicality of generating high-performance parameters. In this paper, we propose COND P-DIFF, a novel approach that demonstrates the feasibility of controllable high-performance parameter generation, particularly for LoRA (Low-Rank Adaptation) weights, during the fine-tuning process. Specifically, we employ an autoencoder to extract efficient latent representations for parameters. We then train a conditional latent diffusion model to synthesize high-performing model parameters from random noise based on specific task conditions. Experimental results in both computer vision and natural language processing domains consistently demonstrate that COND P-DIFF can generate high-performance parameters conditioned on the given task. Moreover, we observe that the parameter distribution generated by COND P-DIFF exhibits differences compared to the distribution obtained through normal optimization methods, indicating a certain level of generalization capability. Our work paves the way for further exploration of condition-driven parameter generation, offering a promising direction for task-specific adaptation of neural networks.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performances in various tasks. However, the performance of LLMs heavily depends on the input prompt, which has given rise to a number of recent works on prompt optimization. However, previous works often require the availability of a numeric score to assess the quality of every prompt. Unfortunately, when a human user interacts with a black-box LLM, attaining such a score is often infeasible and unreliable. Instead, it is usually significantly easier and more reliable to obtain preference feedback from a human user, i.e., showing the user the responses generated from a pair of prompts and asking the user which one is preferred. Therefore, in this paper, we study the problem of prompt optimization with human feedback (POHF), in which we aim to optimize the prompt for a black-box LLM using only human preference feedback. Drawing inspiration from dueling bandits, we design a theoretically principled strategy to select a pair of prompts to query for preference feedback in every iteration, and hence introduce our algorithm named automated POHF (APOHF). We apply our APOHF algorithm to various tasks, including optimizing user instructions, prompt optimization for text-to-image generative models, and response optimization with human feedback (i.e., further refining the response using a variant of our APOHF). The results demonstrate that our APOHF can efficiently find a good prompt using a small number of preference feedback instances. Our code can be found at https://github.com/xqlin98/APOHF.

Multimodal models trained on large natural image-text pair datasets have exhibited astounding abilities in generating high-quality images. Medical imaging data is fundamentally different to natural images, and the language used to succinctly capture relevant details in medical data uses a different, narrow but semantically rich, domain-specific vocabulary. Not surprisingly, multi-modal models trained on natural image-text pairs do not tend to generalize well to the medical domain. Developing generative imaging models faithfully representing medical concepts while providing compositional diversity could mitigate the existing paucity of high-quality, annotated medical imaging datasets. In this work, we develop a strategy to overcome the large natural-medical distributional shift by adapting a pre-trained latent diffusion model on a corpus of publicly available chest x-rays (CXR) and their corresponding radiology (text) reports. We investigate the model's ability to generate high-fidelity, diverse synthetic CXR conditioned on text prompts. We assess the model outputs quantitatively using image quality metrics, and evaluate image quality and text-image alignment by human domain experts. We present evidence that the resulting model (RoentGen) is able to create visually convincing, diverse synthetic CXR images, and that the output can be controlled to a new extent by using free-form text prompts including radiology-specific language. Fine-tuning this model on a fixed training set and using it as a data augmentation method, we measure a 5% improvement of a classifier trained jointly on synthetic and real images, and a 3% improvement when trained on a larger but purely synthetic training set. Finally, we observe that this fine-tuning distills in-domain knowledge in the text-encoder and can improve its representation capabilities of certain diseases like pneumothorax by 25%.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

The primary axes of interest in image-generating diffusion models are image quality, the amount of variation in the results, and how well the results align with a given condition, e.g., a class label or a text prompt. The popular classifier-free guidance approach uses an unconditional model to guide a conditional model, leading to simultaneously better prompt alignment and higher-quality images at the cost of reduced variation. These effects seem inherently entangled, and thus hard to control. We make the surprising observation that it is possible to obtain disentangled control over image quality without compromising the amount of variation by guiding generation using a smaller, less-trained version of the model itself rather than an unconditional model. This leads to significant improvements in ImageNet generation, setting record FIDs of 1.01 for 64x64 and 1.25 for 512x512, using publicly available networks. Furthermore, the method is also applicable to unconditional diffusion models, drastically improving their quality.

Supervised learning is often affected by a covariate shift in which the marginal distributions of instances (covariates x) of training and testing samples p_tr(x) and p_te(x) are different but the label conditionals coincide. Existing approaches address such covariate shift by either using the ratio p_te(x)/p_tr(x) to weight training samples (reweighted methods) or using the ratio p_tr(x)/p_te(x) to weight testing samples (robust methods). However, the performance of such approaches can be poor under support mismatch or when the above ratios take large values. We propose a minimax risk classification (MRC) approach for covariate shift adaptation that avoids such limitations by weighting both training and testing samples. In addition, we develop effective techniques that obtain both sets of weights and generalize the conventional kernel mean matching method. We provide novel generalization bounds for our method that show a significant increase in the effective sample size compared with reweighted methods. The proposed method also achieves enhanced classification performance in both synthetic and empirical experiments.