Daily Papers

Collecting audio-text pairs is expensive; however, it is much easier to access text-only data. Unless using shallow fusion, end-to-end automatic speech recognition (ASR) models require architecture modifications or additional training schemes to use text-only data. Inspired by recent advances in decoder-only language models (LMs), such as GPT-3 and PaLM adopted for speech-processing tasks, we propose using a decoder-only architecture for ASR with simple text augmentation. To provide audio information, encoder features compressed by CTC prediction are used as prompts for the decoder, which can be regarded as refining CTC prediction using the decoder-only model. Because the decoder architecture is the same as an autoregressive LM, it is simple to enhance the model by leveraging external text data with LM training. An experimental comparison using LibriSpeech and Switchboard shows that our proposed models with text augmentation training reduced word error rates from ordinary CTC by 0.3% and 1.4% on LibriSpeech test-clean and testother set, respectively, and 2.9% and 5.0% on Switchboard and CallHome. The proposed model had advantage on computational efficiency compared with conventional encoder-decoder ASR models with a similar parameter setup, and outperformed them on the LibriSpeech 100h and Switchboard training scenarios.

Because of predicting all the target tokens in parallel, the non-autoregressive models greatly improve the decoding efficiency of speech recognition compared with traditional autoregressive models. In this work, we present dynamic alignment Mask CTC, introducing two methods: (1) Aligned Cross Entropy (AXE), finding the monotonic alignment that minimizes the cross-entropy loss through dynamic programming, (2) Dynamic Rectification, creating new training samples by replacing some masks with model predicted tokens. The AXE ignores the absolute position alignment between prediction and ground truth sentence and focuses on tokens matching in relative order. The dynamic rectification method makes the model capable of simulating the non-mask but possible wrong tokens, even if they have high confidence. Our experiments on WSJ dataset demonstrated that not only AXE loss but also the rectification method could improve the WER performance of Mask CTC.

Multilingual Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) models have extended the usability of speech technologies to a wide variety of languages. With how many languages these models have to handle, however, a key to understanding their imbalanced performance across different languages is to examine if the model actually knows which language it should transcribe. In this paper, we introduce our work on improving performance on FLEURS, a 102-language open ASR benchmark, by conditioning the entire model on language identity (LID). We investigate techniques inspired from recent Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) studies to help the model handle the large number of languages, conditioning on the LID predictions of auxiliary tasks. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique over standard CTC/Attention-based hybrid models. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art systems using self-supervised models with the Conformer architecture improve over the results of prior work on FLEURS by a relative 28.4% CER. Trained models and reproducible recipes are available at https://github.com/espnet/espnet/tree/master/egs2/fleurs/asr1 .

In this work, we investigate two popular end-to-end automatic speech recognition (ASR) models, namely Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and RNN-Transducer (RNN-T), for offline recognition of voice search queries, with up to 2B model parameters. The encoders of our models use the neural architecture of Google's universal speech model (USM), with additional funnel pooling layers to significantly reduce the frame rate and speed up training and inference. We perform extensive studies on vocabulary size, time reduction strategy, and its generalization performance on long-form test sets. Despite the speculation that, as the model size increases, CTC can be as good as RNN-T which builds label dependency into the prediction, we observe that a 900M RNN-T clearly outperforms a 1.8B CTC and is more tolerant to severe time reduction, although the WER gap can be largely removed by LM shallow fusion.

The paper discusses an approach to decipher large collections of handwritten index cards of historical dictionaries. Our study provides a working solution that reads the cards, and links their lemmas to a searchable list of dictionary entries, for a large historical dictionary entitled the Dictionary of the 17th- and 18th-century Polish, which comprizes 2.8 million index cards. We apply a tailored handwritten text recognition (HTR) solution that involves (1) an optimized detection model; (2) a recognition model to decipher the handwritten content, designed as a spatial transformer network (STN) followed by convolutional neural network (RCNN) with a connectionist temporal classification layer (CTC), trained using a synthetic set of 500,000 generated Polish words of different length; (3) a post-processing step using constrained Word Beam Search (WBC): the predictions were matched against a list of dictionary entries known in advance. Our model achieved the accuracy of 0.881 on the word level, which outperforms the base RCNN model. Within this study we produced a set of 20,000 manually annotated index cards that can be used for future benchmarks and transfer learning HTR applications.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical problem in web search, recommendation systems and online advertisement displaying. Learning good feature interactions is essential to reflect user's preferences to items. Many CTR prediction models based on deep learning have been proposed, but researchers usually only pay attention to whether state-of-the-art performance is achieved, and ignore whether the entire framework is reasonable. In this work, we use the discrete choice model in economics to redefine the CTR prediction problem, and propose a general neural network framework built on self-attention mechanism. It is found that most existing CTR prediction models align with our proposed general framework. We also examine the expressive power and model complexity of our proposed framework, along with potential extensions to some existing models. And finally we demonstrate and verify our insights through some experimental results on public datasets.

Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) suffers from the latency problem when applied to streaming models. We argue that in CTC lattice, the alignments that can access more future context are preferred during training, thereby leading to higher symbol delay. In this work we propose the delay-penalized CTC which is augmented with latency penalty regularization. We devise a flexible and efficient implementation based on the differentiable Finite State Transducer (FST). Specifically, by attaching a binary attribute to CTC topology, we can locate the frames that firstly emit non-blank tokens on the resulting CTC lattice, and add the frame offsets to the log-probabilities. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed delay-penalized CTC, which is able to balance the delay-accuracy trade-off. Furthermore, combining the delay-penalized transducer enables the CTC model to achieve better performance and lower latency. Our work is open-sourced and publicly available https://github.com/k2-fsa/k2.

Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) is a widely used criterion for training supervised sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models. It enables learning the relations between input and output sequences, termed alignments, by marginalizing over perfect alignments (that yield the ground truth), at the expense of imperfect alignments. This binary differentiation of perfect and imperfect alignments falls short of capturing other essential alignment properties that hold significance in other real-world applications. Here we propose Align With Purpose, a general Plug-and-Play framework for enhancing a desired property in models trained with the CTC criterion. We do that by complementing the CTC with an additional loss term that prioritizes alignments according to a desired property. Our method does not require any intervention in the CTC loss function, enables easy optimization of a variety of properties, and allows differentiation between both perfect and imperfect alignments. We apply our framework in the domain of Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and show its generality in terms of property selection, architectural choice, and scale of training dataset (up to 280,000 hours). To demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework, we apply it to two unrelated properties: emission time and word error rate (WER). For the former, we report an improvement of up to 570ms in latency optimization with a minor reduction in WER, and for the latter, we report a relative improvement of 4.5% WER over the baseline models. To the best of our knowledge, these applications have never been demonstrated to work on a scale of data as large as ours. Notably, our method can be implemented using only a few lines of code, and can be extended to other alignment-free loss functions and to domains other than ASR.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task for many applications, as its accuracy has a direct impact on user experience and platform revenue. In recent years, CTR prediction has been widely studied in both academia and industry, resulting in a wide variety of CTR prediction models. Unfortunately, there is still a lack of standardized benchmarks and uniform evaluation protocols for CTR prediction research. This leads to non-reproducible or even inconsistent experimental results among existing studies, which largely limits the practical value and potential impact of their research. In this work, we aim to perform open benchmarking for CTR prediction and present a rigorous comparison of different models in a reproducible manner. To this end, we ran over 7,000 experiments for more than 12,000 GPU hours in total to re-evaluate 24 existing models on multiple datasets and settings. Surprisingly, our experiments show that with sufficient hyper-parameter search and model tuning, many deep models have smaller differences than expected. The results also reveal that making real progress on the modeling of CTR prediction is indeed a very challenging research task. We believe that our benchmarking work could not only allow researchers to gauge the effectiveness of new models conveniently but also make them fairly compare with the state of the arts. We have publicly released the benchmarking code, evaluation protocols, and hyper-parameter settings of our work to promote reproducible research in this field.

In contrast to Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) approaches, Sequence-To-Sequence (S2S) models for Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) suffer from errors such as skipped or repeated words which often occur at the end of a sequence. In this paper, to combine the best of both approaches, we propose to use the CTC-Prefix-Score during S2S decoding. Hereby, during beam search, paths that are invalid according to the CTC confidence matrix are penalised. Our network architecture is composed of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) as visual backbone, bidirectional Long-Short-Term-Memory-Cells (LSTMs) as encoder, and a decoder which is a Transformer with inserted mutual attention layers. The CTC confidences are computed on the encoder while the Transformer is only used for character-wise S2S decoding. We evaluate this setup on three HTR data sets: IAM, Rimes, and StAZH. On IAM, we achieve a competitive Character Error Rate (CER) of 2.95% when pretraining our model on synthetic data and including a character-based language model for contemporary English. Compared to other state-of-the-art approaches, our model requires about 10-20 times less parameters. Access our shared implementations via this link to GitHub: https://github.com/Planet-AI-GmbH/tfaip-hybrid-ctc-s2s.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction, which aims to predict the probability of a user clicking on an ad or an item, is critical to many online applications such as online advertising and recommender systems. The problem is very challenging since (1) the input features (e.g., the user id, user age, item id, item category) are usually sparse and high-dimensional, and (2) an effective prediction relies on high-order combinatorial features (a.k.a. cross features), which are very time-consuming to hand-craft by domain experts and are impossible to be enumerated. Therefore, there have been efforts in finding low-dimensional representations of the sparse and high-dimensional raw features and their meaningful combinations. In this paper, we propose an effective and efficient method called the AutoInt to automatically learn the high-order feature interactions of input features. Our proposed algorithm is very general, which can be applied to both numerical and categorical input features. Specifically, we map both the numerical and categorical features into the same low-dimensional space. Afterwards, a multi-head self-attentive neural network with residual connections is proposed to explicitly model the feature interactions in the low-dimensional space. With different layers of the multi-head self-attentive neural networks, different orders of feature combinations of input features can be modeled. The whole model can be efficiently fit on large-scale raw data in an end-to-end fashion. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that our proposed approach not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches for prediction but also offers good explainability. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/RecommenderSystems.

Click-Through Rate prediction is an important task in recommender systems, which aims to estimate the probability of a user to click on a given item. Recently, many deep models have been proposed to learn low-order and high-order feature interactions from original features. However, since useful interactions are always sparse, it is difficult for DNN to learn them effectively under a large number of parameters. In real scenarios, artificial features are able to improve the performance of deep models (such as Wide & Deep Learning), but feature engineering is expensive and requires domain knowledge, making it impractical in different scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to augment feature space automatically. In this paper, We propose a novel Feature Generation by Convolutional Neural Network (FGCNN) model with two components: Feature Generation and Deep Classifier. Feature Generation leverages the strength of CNN to generate local patterns and recombine them to generate new features. Deep Classifier adopts the structure of IPNN to learn interactions from the augmented feature space. Experimental results on three large-scale datasets show that FGCNN significantly outperforms nine state-of-the-art models. Moreover, when applying some state-of-the-art models as Deep Classifier, better performance is always achieved, showing the great compatibility of our FGCNN model. This work explores a novel direction for CTR predictions: it is quite useful to reduce the learning difficulties of DNN by automatically identifying important features.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Bone density prediction via CT scans to estimate T-scores is crucial, providing a more precise assessment of bone health compared to traditional methods like X-ray bone density tests, which lack spatial resolution and the ability to detect localized changes. However, CT-based prediction faces two major challenges: the high computational complexity of transformer-based architectures, which limits their deployment in portable and clinical settings, and the imbalanced, long-tailed distribution of real-world hospital data that skews predictions. To address these issues, we introduce MedConv, a convolutional model for bone density prediction that outperforms transformer models with lower computational demands. We also adapt Bal-CE loss and post-hoc logit adjustment to improve class balance. Extensive experiments on our AustinSpine dataset shows that our approach achieves up to 21% improvement in accuracy and 20% in ROC AUC over previous state-of-the-art methods.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples are able to manipulate conformal methods to construct prediction sets with invalid coverage rates, as the i.i.d. assumption is violated. To address this issue, a recent work, Randomized Smoothed Conformal Prediction (RSCP), was first proposed to certify the robustness of conformal prediction methods to adversarial noise. However, RSCP has two major limitations: (i) its robustness guarantee is flawed when used in practice and (ii) it tends to produce large uncertainty sets. To address these limitations, we first propose a novel framework called RSCP+ to provide provable robustness guarantee in evaluation, which fixes the issues in the original RSCP method. Next, we propose two novel methods, Post-Training Transformation (PTT) and Robust Conformal Training (RCT), to effectively reduce prediction set size with little computation overhead. Experimental results in CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet suggest the baseline method only yields trivial predictions including full label set, while our methods could boost the efficiency by up to 4.36times, 5.46times, and 16.9times respectively and provide practical robustness guarantee. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Trustworthy-ML-Lab/Provably-Robust-Conformal-Prediction.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Recurrent neural network (RNN) and connectionist temporal classification (CTC) have showed successes in many sequence labeling tasks with the strong ability of dealing with the problems where the alignment between the inputs and the target labels is unknown. Residual network is a new structure of convolutional neural network and works well in various computer vision tasks. In this paper, we take advantage of the architectures mentioned above to create a new network for handwritten digit string recognition. First we design a residual network to extract features from input images, then we employ a RNN to model the contextual information within feature sequences and predict recognition results. At the top of this network, a standard CTC is applied to calculate the loss and yield the final results. These three parts compose an end-to-end trainable network. The proposed new architecture achieves the highest performances on ORAND-CAR-A and ORAND-CAR-B with recognition rates 89.75% and 91.14%, respectively. In addition, the experiments on a generated captcha dataset which has much longer string length show the potential of the proposed network to handle long strings.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

The peaky behavior of CTC models is well known experimentally. However, an understanding about why peaky behavior occurs is missing, and whether this is a good property. We provide a formal analysis of the peaky behavior and gradient descent convergence properties of the CTC loss and related training criteria. Our analysis provides a deep understanding why peaky behavior occurs and when it is suboptimal. On a simple example which should be trivial to learn for any model, we prove that a feed-forward neural network trained with CTC from uniform initialization converges towards peaky behavior with a 100% error rate. Our analysis further explains why CTC only works well together with the blank label. We further demonstrate that peaky behavior does not occur on other related losses including a label prior model, and that this improves convergence.

Neural Transducer and connectionist temporal classification (CTC) are popular end-to-end automatic speech recognition systems. Due to their frame-synchronous design, blank symbols are introduced to address the length mismatch between acoustic frames and output tokens, which might bring redundant computation. Previous studies managed to accelerate the training and inference of neural Transducers by discarding frames based on the blank symbols predicted by a co-trained CTC. However, there is no guarantee that the co-trained CTC can maximize the ratio of blank symbols. This paper proposes two novel regularization methods to explicitly encourage more blanks by constraining the self-loop of non-blank symbols in the CTC. It is interesting to find that the frame reduction ratio of the neural Transducer can approach the theoretical boundary. Experiments on LibriSpeech corpus show that our proposed method accelerates the inference of neural Transducer by 4 times without sacrificing performance. Our work is open-sourced and publicly available https://github.com/k2-fsa/icefall.

Deep Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction models play an important role in modern industrial recommendation scenarios. However, high memory overhead and computational costs limit their deployment in resource-constrained environments. Low-rank approximation is an effective method for computer vision and natural language processing models, but its application in compressing CTR prediction models has been less explored. Due to the limited memory and computing resources, compression of CTR prediction models often confronts three fundamental challenges, i.e., (1). How to reduce the model sizes to adapt to edge devices? (2). How to speed up CTR prediction model inference? (3). How to retain the capabilities of original models after compression? Previous low-rank compression research mostly uses tensor decomposition, which can achieve a high parameter compression ratio, but brings in AUC degradation and additional computing overhead. To address these challenges, we propose a unified low-rank decomposition framework for compressing CTR prediction models. We find that even with the most classic matrix decomposition SVD method, our framework can achieve better performance than the original model. To further improve the effectiveness of our framework, we locally compress the output features instead of compressing the model weights. Our unified low-rank compression framework can be applied to embedding tables and MLP layers in various CTR prediction models. Extensive experiments on two academic datasets and one real industrial benchmark demonstrate that, with 3-5x model size reduction, our compressed models can achieve both faster inference and higher AUC than the uncompressed original models. Our code is at https://github.com/yuhao318/Atomic_Feature_Mimicking.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Quantitative tools are increasingly appealing for decision support in healthcare, driven by the growing capabilities of advanced AI systems. However, understanding the predictive uncertainties surrounding a tool's output is crucial for decision-makers to ensure reliable and transparent decisions. In this paper, we present a case study on pulmonary nodule detection for lung cancer screening, enhancing an advanced detection model with an uncertainty quantification technique called conformal risk control (CRC). We demonstrate that prediction sets with conformal guarantees are attractive measures of predictive uncertainty in the safety-critical healthcare domain, allowing end-users to achieve arbitrary validity by trading off false positives and providing formal statistical guarantees on model performance. Among ground-truth nodules annotated by at least three radiologists, our model achieves a sensitivity that is competitive with that generally achieved by individual radiologists, with a slight increase in false positives. Furthermore, we illustrate the risks of using off-the-shelve prediction models when faced with ontological uncertainty, such as when radiologists disagree on what constitutes the ground truth on pulmonary nodules.

Connectionist temporal classification (CTC) models are known to have peaky output distributions. Such behavior is not a problem for automatic speech recognition (ASR), but it can cause inaccurate forced alignments (FA), especially at finer granularity, e.g., phoneme level. This paper aims at alleviating the peaky behavior for CTC and improve its suitability for forced alignment generation, by leveraging label priors, so that the scores of alignment paths containing fewer blanks are boosted and maximized during training. As a result, our CTC model produces less peaky posteriors and is able to more accurately predict the offset of the tokens besides their onset. It outperforms the standard CTC model and a heuristics-based approach for obtaining CTC's token offset timestamps by 12-40% in phoneme and word boundary errors (PBE and WBE) measured on the Buckeye and TIMIT data. Compared with the most widely used FA toolkit Montreal Forced Aligner (MFA), our method performs similarly on PBE/WBE on Buckeye, yet falls behind MFA on TIMIT. Nevertheless, our method has a much simpler training pipeline and better runtime efficiency. Our training recipe and pretrained model are released in TorchAudio.

The recently proposed Conformer architecture has shown state-of-the-art performances in Automatic Speech Recognition by combining convolution with attention to model both local and global dependencies. In this paper, we study how to reduce the Conformer architecture complexity with a limited computing budget, leading to a more efficient architecture design that we call Efficient Conformer. We introduce progressive downsampling to the Conformer encoder and propose a novel attention mechanism named grouped attention, allowing us to reduce attention complexity from O(n^{2}d) to O(n^{2}d / g) for sequence length n, hidden dimension d and group size parameter g. We also experiment the use of strided multi-head self-attention as a global downsampling operation. Our experiments are performed on the LibriSpeech dataset with CTC and RNN-Transducer losses. We show that within the same computing budget, the proposed architecture achieves better performances with faster training and decoding compared to the Conformer. Our 13M parameters CTC model achieves competitive WERs of 3.6%/9.0% without using a language model and 2.7%/6.7% with an external n-gram language model on the test-clean/test-other sets while being 29% faster than our CTC Conformer baseline at inference and 36% faster to train.

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is one of the fundamental tasks for online advertising and recommendation. While multi-layer perceptron (MLP) serves as a core component in many deep CTR prediction models, it has been widely recognized that applying a vanilla MLP network alone is inefficient in learning multiplicative feature interactions. As such, many two-stream interaction models (e.g., DeepFM and DCN) have been proposed by integrating an MLP network with another dedicated network for enhanced CTR prediction. As the MLP stream learns feature interactions implicitly, existing research focuses mainly on enhancing explicit feature interactions in the complementary stream. In contrast, our empirical study shows that a well-tuned two-stream MLP model that simply combines two MLPs can even achieve surprisingly good performance, which has never been reported before by existing work. Based on this observation, we further propose feature gating and interaction aggregation layers that can be easily plugged to make an enhanced two-stream MLP model, FinalMLP. In this way, it not only enables differentiated feature inputs but also effectively fuses stream-level interactions across two streams. Our evaluation results on four open benchmark datasets as well as an online A/B test in our industrial system show that FinalMLP achieves better performance than many sophisticated two-stream CTR models. Our source code will be available at MindSpore/models.

Adverse drug events (ADEs) significantly impact clinical research, causing many clinical trial failures. ADE prediction is key for developing safer medications and enhancing patient outcomes. To support this effort, we introduce CT-ADE, a dataset for multilabel predictive modeling of ADEs in monopharmacy treatments. CT-ADE integrates data from 2,497 unique drugs, encompassing 168,984 drug-ADE pairs extracted from clinical trials, annotated with patient and contextual information, and comprehensive ADE concepts standardized across multiple levels of the MedDRA ontology. Preliminary analyses with large language models (LLMs) achieved F1-scores up to 55.90%. Models using patient and contextual information showed F1-score improvements of 21%-38% over models using only chemical structure data. Our results highlight the importance of target population and treatment regimens in the predictive modeling of ADEs, offering greater performance gains than LLM domain specialization and scaling. CT-ADE provides an essential tool for researchers aiming to leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance patient safety and minimize the impact of ADEs on pharmaceutical research and development. The dataset is publicly accessible at https://github.com/ds4dh/CT-ADE.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.

Representation learning has been a critical topic in machine learning. In Click-through Rate Prediction, most features are represented as embedding vectors and learned simultaneously with other parameters in the model. With the development of CTR models, feature representation learning has become a trending topic and has been extensively studied by both industrial and academic researchers in recent years. This survey aims at summarizing the feature representation learning in a broader picture and pave the way for future research. To achieve such a goal, we first present a taxonomy of current research methods on feature representation learning following two main issues: (i) which feature to represent and (ii) how to represent these features. Then we give a detailed description of each method regarding these two issues. Finally, the review concludes with a discussion on the future directions of this field.

Despite the outstanding performance of deep learning models in clinical prediction tasks, explainability remains a significant challenge. Inspired by transformer architectures, we introduce the Temporal-Feature Cross Attention Mechanism (TFCAM), a novel deep learning framework designed to capture dynamic interactions among clinical features across time, enhancing both predictive accuracy and interpretability. In an experiment with 1,422 patients with Chronic Kidney Disease, predicting progression to End-Stage Renal Disease, TFCAM outperformed LSTM and RETAIN baselines, achieving an AUROC of 0.95 and an F1-score of 0.69. Beyond performance gains, TFCAM provides multi-level explainability by identifying critical temporal periods, ranking feature importance, and quantifying how features influence each other across time before affecting predictions. Our approach addresses the "black box" limitations of deep learning in healthcare, offering clinicians transparent insights into disease progression mechanisms while maintaining state-of-the-art predictive performance.

Click-through rate prediction is one of the core tasks in commercial recommender systems. It aims to predict the probability of a user clicking a particular item given user and item features. As feature interactions bring in non-linearity, they are widely adopted to improve the performance of CTR prediction models. Therefore, effectively modelling feature interactions has attracted much attention in both the research and industry field. The current approaches can generally be categorized into three classes: (1) na\"ive methods, which do not model feature interactions and only use original features; (2) memorized methods, which memorize feature interactions by explicitly viewing them as new features and assigning trainable embeddings; (3) factorized methods, which learn latent vectors for original features and implicitly model feature interactions through factorization functions. Studies have shown that modelling feature interactions by one of these methods alone are suboptimal due to the unique characteristics of different feature interactions. To address this issue, we first propose a general framework called OptInter which finds the most suitable modelling method for each feature interaction. Different state-of-the-art deep CTR models can be viewed as instances of OptInter. To realize the functionality of OptInter, we also introduce a learning algorithm that automatically searches for the optimal modelling method. We conduct extensive experiments on four large datasets. Our experiments show that OptInter improves the best performed state-of-the-art baseline deep CTR models by up to 2.21%. Compared to the memorized method, which also outperforms baselines, we reduce up to 91% parameters. In addition, we conduct several ablation studies to investigate the influence of different components of OptInter. Finally, we provide interpretable discussions on the results of OptInter.

Click-through prediction (CTR) models transform features into latent vectors and enumerate possible feature interactions to improve performance based on the input feature set. Therefore, when selecting an optimal feature set, we should consider the influence of both feature and its interaction. However, most previous works focus on either feature field selection or only select feature interaction based on the fixed feature set to produce the feature set. The former restricts search space to the feature field, which is too coarse to determine subtle features. They also do not filter useless feature interactions, leading to higher computation costs and degraded model performance. The latter identifies useful feature interaction from all available features, resulting in many redundant features in the feature set. In this paper, we propose a novel method named OptFS to address these problems. To unify the selection of feature and its interaction, we decompose the selection of each feature interaction into the selection of two correlated features. Such a decomposition makes the model end-to-end trainable given various feature interaction operations. By adopting feature-level search space, we set a learnable gate to determine whether each feature should be within the feature set. Because of the large-scale search space, we develop a learning-by-continuation training scheme to learn such gates. Hence, OptFS generates the feature set only containing features which improve the final prediction results. Experimentally, we evaluate OptFS on three public datasets, demonstrating OptFS can optimize feature sets which enhance the model performance and further reduce both the storage and computational cost.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

The recent emergence of joint CTC-Attention model shows significant improvement in automatic speech recognition (ASR). The improvement largely lies in the modeling of linguistic information by decoder. The decoder joint-optimized with an acoustic encoder renders the language model from ground-truth sequences in an auto-regressive manner during training. However, the training corpus of the decoder is limited to the speech transcriptions, which is far less than the corpus needed to train an acceptable language model. This leads to poor robustness of decoder. To alleviate this problem, we propose linguistic-enhanced transformer, which introduces refined CTC information to decoder during training process, so that the decoder can be more robust. Our experiments on AISHELL-1 speech corpus show that the character error rate (CER) is relatively reduced by up to 7%. We also find that in joint CTC-Attention ASR model, decoder is more sensitive to linguistic information than acoustic information.

Extreme multi-label text classification (XMTC) is the task of finding the most relevant subset labels from an extremely large-scale label collection. Recently, some deep learning models have achieved state-of-the-art results in XMTC tasks. These models commonly predict scores for all labels by a fully connected layer as the last layer of the model. However, such models can't predict a relatively complete and variable-length label subset for each document, because they select positive labels relevant to the document by a fixed threshold or take top k labels in descending order of scores. A less popular type of deep learning models called sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) focus on predicting variable-length positive labels in sequence style. However, the labels in XMTC tasks are essentially an unordered set rather than an ordered sequence, the default order of labels restrains Seq2Seq models in training. To address this limitation in Seq2Seq, we propose an autoregressive sequence-to-set model for XMTC tasks named OTSeq2Set. Our model generates predictions in student-forcing scheme and is trained by a loss function based on bipartite matching which enables permutation-invariance. Meanwhile, we use the optimal transport distance as a measurement to force the model to focus on the closest labels in semantic label space. Experiments show that OTSeq2Set outperforms other competitive baselines on 4 benchmark datasets. Especially, on the Wikipedia dataset with 31k labels, it outperforms the state-of-the-art Seq2Seq method by 16.34% in micro-F1 score. The code is available at https://github.com/caojie54/OTSeq2Set.

The rapid increase in the number of Computed Tomography (CT) scan examinations has created an urgent need for automated tools, such as organ segmentation, anomaly classification, and report generation, to assist radiologists with their growing workload. Multi-label classification of Three-Dimensional (3D) CT scans is a challenging task due to the volumetric nature of the data and the variety of anomalies to be detected. Existing deep learning methods based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) struggle to capture long-range dependencies effectively, while Vision Transformers require extensive pre-training, posing challenges for practical use. Additionally, these existing methods do not explicitly model the radiologist's navigational behavior while scrolling through CT scan slices, which requires both global context understanding and local detail awareness. In this study, we present CT-Scroll, a novel global-local attention model specifically designed to emulate the scrolling behavior of radiologists during the analysis of 3D CT scans. Our approach is evaluated on two public datasets, demonstrating its efficacy through comprehensive experiments and an ablation study that highlights the contribution of each model component.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while it leads to poor generalization on unseen instances and ignores potentially necessary interactions between channels. Conversely, the Channel-Dependent (CD) strategy mixes all channels with even irrelevant and indiscriminate information, which, however, results in oversmoothing issues and limits forecasting accuracy. There is a lack of channel strategy that effectively balances individual channel treatment for improved forecasting performance without overlooking essential interactions between channels. Motivated by our observation of a correlation between the time series model's performance boost against channel mixing and the intrinsic similarity on a pair of channels, we developed a novel and adaptable Channel Clustering Module (CCM). CCM dynamically groups channels characterized by intrinsic similarities and leverages cluster information instead of individual channel identities, combining the best of CD and CI worlds. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CCM can (1) boost the performance of CI and CD models by an average margin of 2.4% and 7.2% on long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively; (2) enable zero-shot forecasting with mainstream time series forecasting models; (3) uncover intrinsic time series patterns among channels and improve interpretability of complex time series models.

There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models have been explored for cryptocurrency price forecasting, it is not clear which models are suitable due to high market volatility. In this study, we review the literature about deep learning for cryptocurrency price forecasting and evaluate novel deep learning models for cryptocurrency stock price prediction. Our deep learning models include variants of long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, variants of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and the Transformer model. We evaluate univariate and multivariate approaches for multi-step ahead predicting of cryptocurrencies close-price. We also carry out volatility analysis on the four cryptocurrencies which reveals significant fluctuations in their prices throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, we investigate the prediction accuracy of two scenarios identified by different training sets for the models. First, we use the pre-COVID-19 datasets to model cryptocurrency close-price forecasting during the early period of COVID-19. Secondly, we utilise data from the COVID-19 period to predict prices for 2023 to 2024. Our results show that the convolutional LSTM with a multivariate approach provides the best prediction accuracy in two major experimental settings. Our results also indicate that the multivariate deep learning models exhibit better performance in forecasting four different cryptocurrencies when compared to the univariate models.

Multi-Label Text Classification (MLTC) aims to assign the most relevant labels to each given text. Existing methods demonstrate that label dependency can help to improve the model's performance. However, the introduction of label dependency may cause the model to suffer from unwanted prediction bias. In this study, we attribute the bias to the model's misuse of label dependency, i.e., the model tends to utilize the correlation shortcut in label dependency rather than fusing text information and label dependency for prediction. Motivated by causal inference, we propose a CounterFactual Text Classifier (CFTC) to eliminate the correlation bias, and make causality-based predictions. Specifically, our CFTC first adopts the predict-then-modify backbone to extract precise label information embedded in label dependency, then blocks the correlation shortcut through the counterfactual de-bias technique with the help of the human causal graph. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that our CFTC significantly outperforms the baselines and effectively eliminates the correlation bias in datasets.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

The rapid increase of computed tomography (CT) scans and their time-consuming manual analysis have created an urgent need for robust automated analysis techniques in clinical settings. These aim to assist radiologists and help them managing their growing workload. Existing methods typically generate entire reports directly from 3D CT images, without explicitly focusing on observed abnormalities. This unguided approach often results in repetitive content or incomplete reports, failing to prioritize anomaly-specific descriptions. We propose a new anomaly-guided report generation model, which first predicts abnormalities and then generates targeted descriptions for each. Evaluation on a public dataset demonstrates significant improvements in report quality and clinical relevance. We extend our work by conducting an ablation study to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Knowledge tracing (KT) has recently been an active research area of computational pedagogy. The task is to model students' mastery level of knowledge concepts based on their responses to the questions in the past, as well as predict the probabilities that they correctly answer subsequent questions in the future. KT tasks were historically solved using statistical modeling methods such as Bayesian inference and factor analysis, but recent advances in deep learning have led to the successive proposals that leverage deep neural networks, including long short-term memory networks, memory-augmented networks and self-attention networks. While those deep models demonstrate superior performance over the traditional approaches, they all neglect the explicit modeling of the learning curve theory, which generally says that more practice on the same knowledge concept enhances one's mastery level of the concept. Based on this theory, we propose a Convolution-Augmented Knowledge Tracing (CAKT) model in this paper. The model employs three-dimensional convolutional neural networks to explicitly learn a student's recent experience on applying the same knowledge concept with that in the next question, and fuses the learnt feature with the feature representing her overall latent knowledge state obtained using a classic LSTM network. The fused feature is then fed into a second LSTM network to predict the student's response to the next question. Experimental results show that CAKT achieves the new state-of-the-art performance in predicting students' responses compared with existing models. We also conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and ablation study to show the stability of the results and justify the particular architecture of CAKT, respectively.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) compresses computationally expensive pre-trained language models (PLMs) by transferring their knowledge to smaller models, allowing their use in resource-constrained or real-time settings. However, most smaller models fail to surpass the performance of the original larger model, resulting in sacrificing performance to improve inference speed. To address this issue, we propose Co-Training and Co-Distillation (CTCD), a novel framework that improves performance and inference speed together by co-training two models while mutually distilling knowledge. The CTCD framework successfully achieves this based on two significant findings: 1) Distilling knowledge from the smaller model to the larger model during co-training improves the performance of the larger model. 2) The enhanced performance of the larger model further boosts the performance of the smaller model. The CTCD framework shows promise as it can be combined with existing techniques like architecture design or data augmentation, replacing one-way KD methods, to achieve further performance improvement. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of CTCD, and the small model distilled by CTCD outperforms the original larger model by a significant margin of 1.66 on the GLUE benchmark.

Non-autoregressive automatic speech recognition (ASR) modeling has received increasing attention recently because of its fast decoding speed and superior performance. Among representatives, methods based on the connectionist temporal classification (CTC) are still a dominating stream. However, the theoretically inherent flaw, the assumption of independence between tokens, creates a performance barrier for the school of works. To mitigate the challenge, we propose a context-aware knowledge transferring strategy, consisting of a knowledge transferring module and a context-aware training strategy, for CTC-based ASR. The former is designed to distill linguistic information from a pre-trained language model, and the latter is framed to modulate the limitations caused by the conditional independence assumption. As a result, a knowledge-injected context-aware CTC-based ASR built upon the wav2vec2.0 is presented in this paper. A series of experiments on the AISHELL-1 and AISHELL-2 datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

In breast cancer imaging, there has been a trend to directly predict pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) from histological images based on deep learning (DL). However, it has been a commonly known problem that the constructed DL-based models numerically have better performances in internal validation than in external validation. The primary reason for this situation lies in that the distribution of the external data for validation is different from the distribution of the training data for the construction of the predictive model. In this paper, we aim to alleviate this situation with a more intrinsic approach. We propose an experts' cognition-driven ensemble deep learning (ECDEDL) approach for external validation of predicting pCR to NAC from histological images in breast cancer. The proposed ECDEDL, which takes the cognition of both pathology and artificial intelligence experts into consideration to improve the generalization of the predictive model to the external validation, more intrinsically approximates the working paradigm of a human being which will refer to his various working experiences to make decisions. The proposed ECDEDL approach was validated with 695 WSIs collected from the same center as the primary dataset to develop the predictive model and perform the internal validation, and 340 WSIs collected from other three centers as the external dataset to perform the external validation. In external validation, the proposed ECDEDL approach improves the AUCs of pCR prediction from 61.52(59.80-63.26) to 67.75(66.74-68.80) and the Accuracies of pCR prediction from 56.09(49.39-62.79) to 71.01(69.44-72.58). The proposed ECDEDL was quite effective for external validation, numerically more approximating the internal validation.

In this paper, we propose an open source, production first, and production ready speech recognition toolkit called WeNet in which a new two-pass approach is implemented to unify streaming and non-streaming end-to-end (E2E) speech recognition in a single model. The main motivation of WeNet is to close the gap between the research and the production of E2E speechrecognition models. WeNet provides an efficient way to ship ASR applications in several real-world scenarios, which is the main difference and advantage to other open source E2E speech recognition toolkits. In our toolkit, a new two-pass method is implemented. Our method propose a dynamic chunk-based attention strategy of the the transformer layers to allow arbitrary right context length modifies in hybrid CTC/attention architecture. The inference latency could be easily controlled by only changing the chunk size. The CTC hypotheses are then rescored by the attention decoder to get the final result. Our experiments on the AISHELL-1 dataset using WeNet show that, our model achieves 5.03\% relative character error rate (CER) reduction in non-streaming ASR compared to a standard non-streaming transformer. After model quantification, our model perform reasonable RTF and latency.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

Recent end-to-end Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems demonstrated the ability to outperform conventional hybrid DNN/ HMM ASR. Aside from architectural improvements in those systems, those models grew in terms of depth, parameters and model capacity. However, these models also require more training data to achieve comparable performance. In this work, we combine freely available corpora for German speech recognition, including yet unlabeled speech data, to a big dataset of over 1700h of speech data. For data preparation, we propose a two-stage approach that uses an ASR model pre-trained with Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) to boot-strap more training data from unsegmented or unlabeled training data. Utterances are then extracted from label probabilities obtained from the network trained with CTC to determine segment alignments. With this training data, we trained a hybrid CTC/attention Transformer model that achieves 12.8% WER on the Tuda-DE test set, surpassing the previous baseline of 14.4% of conventional hybrid DNN/HMM ASR.

This paper presents a new approach for assessing uncertainty in machine translation by simultaneously evaluating translation quality and providing a reliable confidence score. Our approach utilizes conformal predictive distributions to produce prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, meaning that for any given significance level epsilon, we can expect the true quality score of a translation to fall out of the interval at a rate of 1-epsilon. In this paper, we demonstrate how our method outperforms a simple, but effective baseline on six different language pairs in terms of coverage and sharpness. Furthermore, we validate that our approach requires the data exchangeability assumption to hold for optimal performance.

Understanding how deep learning models predict oncology patient risk can provide critical insights into disease progression, support clinical decision-making, and pave the way for trustworthy and data-driven precision medicine. Building on recent advances in the spatial modeling of the tumor microenvironment using graph neural networks, we present an explainable cell graph (xCG) approach for survival prediction. We validate our model on a public cohort of imaging mass cytometry (IMC) data for 416 cases of lung adenocarcinoma. We explain survival predictions in terms of known phenotypes on the cell level by computing risk attributions over cell graphs, for which we propose an efficient grid-based layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method. Our ablation studies highlight the importance of incorporating the cancer stage and model ensembling to improve the quality of risk estimates. Our xCG method, together with the IMC data, is made publicly available to support further research.

Transformers exhibit impressive capabilities but are often regarded as black boxes due to challenges in understanding the complex nonlinear relationships between features. Interpreting machine learning models is of paramount importance to mitigate risks, and mechanistic interpretability is in particular of current interest as it opens up a window for guiding manual modifications and reverse-engineering solutions. In this work, we introduce contextual decomposition for transformers (CD-T), extending a prior work on CD for RNNs and CNNs, to address mechanistic interpretation computationally efficiently. CD-T is a flexible interpretation method for transformers. It can capture contributions of combinations of input features or source internal components (e.g. attention heads, feed-forward networks) to (1) final predictions or (2) the output of any target internal component. Using CD-T, we propose a novel algorithm for circuit discovery. On a real-world pathology report classification task: we show CD-T distills a more faithful circuit of attention heads with improved computational efficiency (speed up 2x) than a prior benchmark, path patching. As a versatile interpretation method, CD-T also exhibits exceptional capabilities for local interpretations. CD-T is shown to reliably find words and phrases of contrasting sentiment/topic on SST-2 and AGNews datasets. Through human experiments, we demonstrate CD-T enables users to identify the more accurate of two models and to better trust a model's outputs compared to alternative interpretation methods such as SHAP and LIME.

There has been an increasing interest in large speech models that can perform multiple speech processing tasks in a single model. Such models usually adopt the encoder-decoder or decoder-only architecture due to their popularity and good performance in many domains. However, autoregressive models can be slower during inference compared to non-autoregressive models and also have potential risks of hallucination. Though prior studies observed promising results of non-autoregressive models for certain tasks at small scales, it remains unclear if they can be scaled to speech-to-text generation in diverse languages and tasks. Inspired by the Open Whisper-style Speech Model (OWSM) project, we propose OWSM-CTC, a novel encoder-only speech foundation model based on Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC). It is trained on 180k hours of public audio data for multilingual automatic speech recognition (ASR), speech translation (ST), and language identification (LID). Compared to encoder-decoder OWSM, our OWSM-CTC achieves competitive results on ASR and up to 25% relative improvement on ST, while it is more robust and 3 to 4 times faster for inference. OWSM-CTC also improves the long-form ASR result with 20x speed-up. We will publicly release our codebase, pre-trained model, and training logs to promote open science in speech foundation models.

Model-based reconstruction employing the time separation technique (TST) was found to improve dynamic perfusion imaging of the liver using C-arm cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT). To apply TST using prior knowledge extracted from CT perfusion data, the liver should be accurately segmented from the CT scans. Reconstructions of primary and model-based CBCT data need to be segmented for proper visualisation and interpretation of perfusion maps. This research proposes Turbolift learning, which trains a modified version of the multi-scale Attention UNet on different liver segmentation tasks serially, following the order of the trainings CT, CBCT, CBCT TST - making the previous trainings act as pre-training stages for the subsequent ones - addressing the problem of limited number of datasets for training. For the final task of liver segmentation from CBCT TST, the proposed method achieved an overall Dice scores of 0.874pm0.031 and 0.905pm0.007 in 6-fold and 4-fold cross-validation experiments, respectively - securing statistically significant improvements over the model, which was trained only for that task. Experiments revealed that Turbolift not only improves the overall performance of the model but also makes it robust against artefacts originating from the embolisation materials and truncation artefacts. Additionally, in-depth analyses confirmed the order of the segmentation tasks. This paper shows the potential of segmenting the liver from CT, CBCT, and CBCT TST, learning from the available limited training data, which can possibly be used in the future for the visualisation and evaluation of the perfusion maps for the treatment evaluation of liver diseases.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Conformal prediction has shown spurring performance in constructing statistically rigorous prediction sets for arbitrary black-box machine learning models, assuming the data is exchangeable. However, even small adversarial perturbations during the inference can violate the exchangeability assumption, challenge the coverage guarantees, and result in a subsequent decline in empirical coverage. In this work, we propose a certifiably robust learning-reasoning conformal prediction framework (COLEP) via probabilistic circuits, which comprise a data-driven learning component that trains statistical models to learn different semantic concepts, and a reasoning component that encodes knowledge and characterizes the relationships among the trained models for logic reasoning. To achieve exact and efficient reasoning, we employ probabilistic circuits (PCs) within the reasoning component. Theoretically, we provide end-to-end certification of prediction coverage for COLEP in the presence of bounded adversarial perturbations. We also provide certified coverage considering the finite size of the calibration set. Furthermore, we prove that COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy over a single model as long as the utilities of knowledge models are non-trivial. Empirically, we show the validity and tightness of our certified coverage, demonstrating the robust conformal prediction of COLEP on various datasets, including GTSRB, CIFAR10, and AwA2. We show that COLEP achieves up to 12% improvement in certified coverage on GTSRB, 9% on CIFAR-10, and 14% on AwA2.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

Background: Recent advances in large language models highlight the need for high-quality multilingual medical datasets. While Japan leads globally in CT scanner deployment and utilization, the lack of large-scale Japanese radiology datasets has hindered the development of specialized language models for medical imaging analysis. Objective: To develop a comprehensive Japanese CT report dataset through machine translation and establish a specialized language model for structured finding classification. Additionally, to create a rigorously validated evaluation dataset through expert radiologist review. Methods: We translated the CT-RATE dataset (24,283 CT reports from 21,304 patients) into Japanese using GPT-4o mini. The training dataset consisted of 22,778 machine-translated reports, while the validation dataset included 150 radiologist-revised reports. We developed CT-BERT-JPN based on "tohoku-nlp/bert-base-japanese-v3" architecture for extracting 18 structured findings from Japanese radiology reports. Results: Translation metrics showed strong performance with BLEU scores of 0.731 and 0.690, and ROUGE scores ranging from 0.770 to 0.876 for Findings and from 0.748 to 0.857 for Impression sections. CT-BERT-JPN demonstrated superior performance compared to GPT-4o in 11 out of 18 conditions, including lymphadenopathy (+14.2%), interlobular septal thickening (+10.9%), and atelectasis (+7.4%). The model maintained F1 scores exceeding 0.95 in 14 out of 18 conditions and achieved perfect scores in four conditions. Conclusions: Our study establishes a robust Japanese CT report dataset and demonstrates the effectiveness of a specialized language model for structured finding classification. The hybrid approach of machine translation and expert validation enables the creation of large-scale medical datasets while maintaining high quality.

We employ random matrix theory to establish consistency of generalized cross validation (GCV) for estimating prediction risks of sketched ridge regression ensembles, enabling efficient and consistent tuning of regularization and sketching parameters. Our results hold for a broad class of asymptotically free sketches under very mild data assumptions. For squared prediction risk, we provide a decomposition into an unsketched equivalent implicit ridge bias and a sketching-based variance, and prove that the risk can be globally optimized by only tuning sketch size in infinite ensembles. For general subquadratic prediction risk functionals, we extend GCV to construct consistent risk estimators, and thereby obtain distributional convergence of the GCV-corrected predictions in Wasserstein-2 metric. This in particular allows construction of prediction intervals with asymptotically correct coverage conditional on the training data. We also propose an "ensemble trick" whereby the risk for unsketched ridge regression can be efficiently estimated via GCV using small sketched ridge ensembles. We empirically validate our theoretical results using both synthetic and real large-scale datasets with practical sketches including CountSketch and subsampled randomized discrete cosine transforms.

In this paper, we propose an efficient and accurate streaming speech recognition model based on the FastConformer architecture. We adapted the FastConformer architecture for streaming applications through: (1) constraining both the look-ahead and past contexts in the encoder, and (2) introducing an activation caching mechanism to enable the non-autoregressive encoder to operate autoregressively during inference. The proposed model is thoughtfully designed in a way to eliminate the accuracy disparity between the train and inference time which is common for many streaming models. Furthermore, our proposed encoder works with various decoder configurations including Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) and RNN-Transducer (RNNT) decoders. Additionally, we introduced a hybrid CTC/RNNT architecture which utilizes a shared encoder with both a CTC and RNNT decoder to boost the accuracy and save computation. We evaluate the proposed model on LibriSpeech dataset and a multi-domain large scale dataset and demonstrate that it can achieve better accuracy with lower latency and inference time compared to a conventional buffered streaming model baseline. We also showed that training a model with multiple latencies can achieve better accuracy than single latency models while it enables us to support multiple latencies with a single model. Our experiments also showed the hybrid architecture would not only speedup the convergence of the CTC decoder but also improves the accuracy of streaming models compared to single decoder models.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are able to achieve high classification accuracy on many important real world datasets, but provide no rigorous notion of predictive uncertainty. Quantifying the confidence of GNN models is difficult due to the dependence between datapoints induced by the graph structure. We leverage recent advances in conformal prediction to construct prediction sets for node classification in inductive learning scenarios. We do this by taking an existing approach for conformal classification that relies on exchangeable data and modifying it by appropriately weighting the conformal scores to reflect the network structure. We show through experiments on standard benchmark datasets using popular GNN models that our approach provides tighter and better calibrated prediction sets than a naive application of conformal prediction.

The global cost of drug discovery and development exceeds $200 billion annually. The main results of drug discovery and development are the outcomes of clinical trials, which directly influence the regulatory approval of new drug candidates and ultimately affect patient outcomes. Despite their significance, large-scale, high-quality clinical trial outcome data are not readily available to the public. Suppose a large clinical trial outcome dataset is provided; machine learning researchers can potentially develop accurate prediction models using past trials and outcome labels, which could help prioritize and optimize therapeutic programs, ultimately benefiting patients. This paper introduces Clinical Trial Outcome (CTO) dataset, the largest trial outcome dataset with around 479K clinical trials, aggregating outcomes from multiple sources of weakly supervised labels, minimizing the noise from individual sources, and eliminating the need for human annotation. These sources include large language model (LLM) decisions on trial-related documents, news headline sentiments, stock prices of trial sponsors, trial linkages across phases, and other signals such as patient dropout rates and adverse events. CTO's labels show unprecedented agreement with supervised clinical trial outcome labels from test split of the supervised TOP dataset, with a 91 F1.

CTC compressor can be an effective approach to integrate audio encoders to decoder-only models, which has gained growing interest for different speech applications. In this work, we propose a novel CTC compressor based joint speech and text training (CJST) framework for decoder-only ASR. CJST matches speech and text modalities from both directions by exploring a simple modality adaptor and several features of the CTC compressor, including sequence compression, on-the-fly forced peaky alignment and CTC class embeddings. Experimental results on the Librispeech and TED-LIUM2 corpora show that the proposed CJST achieves an effective text injection without the need of duration handling, leading to the best performance for both in-domain and cross-domain scenarios. We also provide a comprehensive study on CTC compressor, covering various compression modes, edge case handling and behavior under both clean and noisy data conditions, which reveals the most robust setting to use CTC compressor for decoder-only models.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Recently, Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems have emerged as indispensable tools in clinical diagnostic workflows, significantly alleviating the burden on radiologists. Nevertheless, despite their integration into clinical settings, CAD systems encounter limitations. Specifically, while CAD systems can achieve high performance in the detection of lung nodules, they face challenges in accurately predicting multiple cancer types. This limitation can be attributed to the scarcity of publicly available datasets annotated with expert-level cancer type information. This research aims to bridge this gap by providing publicly accessible datasets and reliable tools for medical diagnosis, facilitating a finer categorization of different types of lung diseases so as to offer precise treatment recommendations. To achieve this objective, we curated a diverse dataset of lung Computed Tomography (CT) images, comprising 330 annotated nodules (nodules are labeled as bounding boxes) from 95 distinct patients. The quality of the dataset was evaluated using a variety of classical classification and detection models, and these promising results demonstrate that the dataset has a feasible application and further facilitate intelligent auxiliary diagnosis.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) aims to adapt the source model to continually changing unlabeled target domains without access to the source data. Existing methods mainly focus on model-based adaptation in a self-training manner, such as predicting pseudo labels for new domain datasets. Since pseudo labels are noisy and unreliable, these methods suffer from catastrophic forgetting and error accumulation when dealing with dynamic data distributions. Motivated by the prompt learning in NLP, in this paper, we propose to learn an image-level visual domain prompt for target domains while having the source model parameters frozen. During testing, the changing target datasets can be adapted to the source model by reformulating the input data with the learned visual prompts. Specifically, we devise two types of prompts, i.e., domains-specific prompts and domains-agnostic prompts, to extract current domain knowledge and maintain the domain-shared knowledge in the continual adaptation. Furthermore, we design a homeostasis-based prompt adaptation strategy to suppress domain-sensitive parameters in domain-invariant prompts to learn domain-shared knowledge more effectively. This transition from the model-dependent paradigm to the model-free one enables us to bypass the catastrophic forgetting and error accumulation problems. Experiments show that our proposed method achieves significant performance gains over state-of-the-art methods on four widely-used benchmarks, including CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNet-C, and VLCS datasets.

Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where the timing and interplay between neurons is critical to how brains process information. Most deep learning architectures simplify neural activity by abstracting away temporal dynamics. In this paper we challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we can effectively reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two core innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process a history of incoming signals; and (2) neural synchronization employed as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between oversimplified neuron abstractions that improve computational efficiency, and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable for deep learning. We demonstrate the CTM's strong performance and versatility across a range of challenging tasks, including ImageNet-1K classification, solving 2D mazes, sorting, parity computation, question-answering, and RL tasks. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems.

In this work, we release COVID-Twitter-BERT (CT-BERT), a transformer-based model, pretrained on a large corpus of Twitter messages on the topic of COVID-19. Our model shows a 10-30% marginal improvement compared to its base model, BERT-Large, on five different classification datasets. The largest improvements are on the target domain. Pretrained transformer models, such as CT-BERT, are trained on a specific target domain and can be used for a wide variety of natural language processing tasks, including classification, question-answering and chatbots. CT-BERT is optimised to be used on COVID-19 content, in particular social media posts from Twitter.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) aims to adapt a pretrained model to ever-changing environments during the test time under continuous domain shifts. Most existing CTTA approaches are based on the Mean Teacher (MT) structure, which contains a student and a teacher model, where the student is updated using the pseudo-labels from the teacher model, and the teacher is then updated by exponential moving average strategy. However, these methods update the MT model indiscriminately on all parameters of the model. That is, some critical parameters involving sharing knowledge across different domains may be erased, intensifying error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, we introduce Parameter-Selective Mean Teacher (PSMT) method, which is capable of effectively updating the critical parameters within the MT network under domain shifts. First, we introduce a selective distillation mechanism in the student model, which utilizes past knowledge to regularize novel knowledge, thereby mitigating the impact of error accumulation. Second, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, in the teacher model, we create a mask through Fisher information to selectively update parameters via exponential moving average, with preservation measures applied to crucial parameters. Extensive experimental results verify that PSMT outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/JiaxuTian/PSMT.

Connectionist temporal classification (CTC)-based scene text recognition (STR) methods, e.g., SVTR, are widely employed in OCR applications, mainly due to their simple architecture, which only contains a visual model and a CTC-aligned linear classifier, and therefore fast inference. However, they generally exhibit worse accuracy than encoder-decoder-based methods (EDTRs) due to struggling with text irregularity and linguistic missing. To address these challenges, we propose SVTRv2, a CTC model endowed with the ability to handle text irregularities and model linguistic context. First, a multi-size resizing strategy is proposed to resize text instances to appropriate predefined sizes, effectively avoiding severe text distortion. Meanwhile, we introduce a feature rearrangement module to ensure that visual features accommodate the requirement of CTC, thus alleviating the alignment puzzle. Second, we propose a semantic guidance module. It integrates linguistic context into the visual features, allowing CTC model to leverage language information for accuracy improvement. This module can be omitted at the inference stage and would not increase the time cost. We extensively evaluate SVTRv2 in both standard and recent challenging benchmarks, where SVTRv2 is fairly compared to popular STR models across multiple scenarios, including different types of text irregularity, languages, long text, and whether employing pretraining. SVTRv2 surpasses most EDTRs across the scenarios in terms of accuracy and inference speed. Code: https://github.com/Topdu/OpenOCR.

Recently, end-to-end models have been widely used in automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems. Two of the most representative approaches are connectionist temporal classification (CTC) and attention-based encoder-decoder (AED) models. Autoregressive transformers, variants of AED, adopt an autoregressive mechanism for token generation and thus are relatively slow during inference. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of a CTC Alignment-based Single-Step Non-Autoregressive Transformer (CASS-NAT) for end-to-end ASR. In CASS-NAT, word embeddings in the autoregressive transformer (AT) are substituted with token-level acoustic embeddings (TAE) that are extracted from encoder outputs with the acoustical boundary information offered by the CTC alignment. TAE can be obtained in parallel, resulting in a parallel generation of output tokens. During training, Viterbi-alignment is used for TAE generation, and multiple training strategies are further explored to improve the word error rate (WER) performance. During inference, an error-based alignment sampling method is investigated in depth to reduce the alignment mismatch in the training and testing processes. Experimental results show that the CASS-NAT has a WER that is close to AT on various ASR tasks, while providing a ~24x inference speedup. With and without self-supervised learning, we achieve new state-of-the-art results for non-autoregressive models on several datasets. We also analyze the behavior of the CASS-NAT decoder to explain why it can perform similarly to AT. We find that TAEs have similar functionality to word embeddings for grammatical structures, which might indicate the possibility of learning some semantic information from TAEs without a language model.

Keyword spotting--or wakeword detection--is an essential feature for hands-free operation of modern voice-controlled devices. With such devices becoming ubiquitous, users might want to choose a personalized custom wakeword. In this work, we present DONUT, a CTC-based algorithm for online query-by-example keyword spotting that enables custom wakeword detection. The algorithm works by recording a small number of training examples from the user, generating a set of label sequence hypotheses from these training examples, and detecting the wakeword by aggregating the scores of all the hypotheses given a new audio recording. Our method combines the generalization and interpretability of CTC-based keyword spotting with the user-adaptation and convenience of a conventional query-by-example system. DONUT has low computational requirements and is well-suited for both learning and inference on embedded systems without requiring private user data to be uploaded to the cloud.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

In this work, we propose novel decoding algorithms to enable streaming automatic speech recognition (ASR) on unsegmented long-form recordings without voice activity detection (VAD), based on monotonic chunkwise attention (MoChA) with an auxiliary connectionist temporal classification (CTC) objective. We propose a block-synchronous beam search decoding to take advantage of efficient batched output-synchronous and low-latency input-synchronous searches. We also propose a VAD-free inference algorithm that leverages CTC probabilities to determine a suitable timing to reset the model states to tackle the vulnerability to long-form data. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the block-synchronous decoding achieves comparable accuracy to the label-synchronous one. Moreover, the VAD-free inference can recognize long-form speech robustly for up to a few hours.

With the increased applications of automatic speech recognition (ASR) in recent years, it is essential to automatically insert punctuation marks and remove disfluencies in transcripts, to improve the readability of the transcripts as well as the performance of subsequent applications, such as machine translation, dialogue systems, and so forth. In this paper, we propose a Controllable Time-delay Transformer (CT-Transformer) model that jointly completes the punctuation prediction and disfluency detection tasks in real time. The CT-Transformer model facilitates freezing partial outputs with controllable time delay to fulfill the real-time constraints in partial decoding required by subsequent applications. We further propose a fast decoding strategy to minimize latency while maintaining competitive performance. Experimental results on the IWSLT2011 benchmark dataset and an in-house Chinese annotated dataset demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art models on F-scores and achieves a competitive inference speed.

To address the interpretability challenge in machine learning (ML) systems, counterfactual explanations (CEs) have emerged as a promising solution. CEs are unique as they provide workable suggestions to users, in addition to explaining why a certain outcome was predicted. The application of CEs encounters two main challenges: general user preferences and variable ML systems. User preferences tend to be general rather than specific, and CEs need to be adaptable to variable ML models while maintaining robustness even as these models change. Facing these challenges, we present a solution rooted in validated general user preferences, which are derived from thorough user research. We map these preferences to the properties of CEs. Additionally, we introduce a novel method, Tree-based Conditions Optional Links (T-COL), which incorporates two optional structures and multiple condition groups for generating CEs adaptable to general user preferences. Meanwhile, we employ T-COL to enhance the robustness of CEs with specific conditions, making them more valid even when the ML model is replaced. Our experimental comparisons under different user preferences show that T-COL outperforms all baselines, including Large Language Models which are shown to be able to generate counterfactuals.

Rich user behavior data has been proven to be of great value for Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction applications, especially in industrial recommender, search, or advertising systems. However, it's non-trivial for real-world systems to make full use of long-term user behaviors due to the strict requirements of online serving time. Most previous works adopt the retrieval-based strategy, where a small number of user behaviors are retrieved first for subsequent attention. However, the retrieval-based methods are sub-optimal and would cause more or less information losses, and it's difficult to balance the effectiveness and efficiency of the retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we propose SDIM (Sampling-based Deep Interest Modeling), a simple yet effective sampling-based end-to-end approach for modeling long-term user behaviors. We sample from multiple hash functions to generate hash signatures of the candidate item and each item in the user behavior sequence, and obtain the user interest by directly gathering behavior items associated with the candidate item with the same hash signature. We show theoretically and experimentally that the proposed method performs on par with standard attention-based models on modeling long-term user behaviors, while being sizable times faster. We also introduce the deployment of SDIM in our system. Specifically, we decouple the behavior sequence hashing, which is the most time-consuming part, from the CTR model by designing a separate module named BSE (behavior Sequence Encoding). BSE is latency-free for the CTR server, enabling us to model extremely long user behaviors. Both offline and online experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of SDIM. SDIM now has been deployed online in the search system of Meituan APP.

We study the design of loss functions for click-through rates (CTR) to optimize (social) welfare in advertising auctions. Existing works either only focus on CTR predictions without consideration of business objectives (e.g., welfare) in auctions or assume that the distribution over the participants' expected cost-per-impression (eCPM) is known a priori, then use various additional assumptions on the parametric form of the distribution to derive loss functions for predicting CTRs. In this work, we bring back the welfare objectives of ad auctions into CTR predictions and propose a novel weighted rankloss to train the CTR model. Compared to existing literature, our approach provides a provable guarantee on welfare but without assumptions on the eCPMs' distribution while also avoiding the intractability of naively applying existing learning-to-rank methods. Further, we propose a theoretically justifiable technique for calibrating the losses using labels generated from a teacher network, only assuming that the teacher network has bounded ell_2 generalization error. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed loss on synthetic and real-world data.

Reasoning is a fundamental capability of Large Language Models. While prior research predominantly focuses on enhancing narrow skills like math or code generation, improving performance on many other reasoning tasks remains challenging due to sparse and fragmented training data. To address this issue, we propose CodeI/O, a novel approach that systematically condenses diverse reasoning patterns inherently embedded in contextually-grounded codes, through transforming the original code into a code input-output prediction format. By training models to predict inputs/outputs given code and test cases entirely in natural language as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) rationales, we expose them to universal reasoning primitives -- like logic flow planning, state-space searching, decision tree traversal, and modular decomposition -- while decoupling structured reasoning from code-specific syntax and preserving procedural rigor. Experimental results demonstrate CodeI/O leads to consistent improvements across symbolic, scientific, logic, math & numerical, and commonsense reasoning tasks. By matching the existing ground-truth outputs or re-executing the code with predicted inputs, we can verify each prediction and further enhance the CoTs through multi-turn revision, resulting in CodeI/O++ and achieving higher performance. Our data and models are available at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/CodeIO.

This study presents an innovative approach for predicting cryptocurrency time series, specifically focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. The methodology integrates the use of technical indicators, a Performer neural network, and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory) to capture temporal dynamics and extract significant features from raw cryptocurrency data. The application of technical indicators, such facilitates the extraction of intricate patterns, momentum, volatility, and trends. The Performer neural network, employing Fast Attention Via positive Orthogonal Random features (FAVOR+), has demonstrated superior computational efficiency and scalability compared to the traditional Multi-head attention mechanism in Transformer models. Additionally, the integration of BiLSTM in the feedforward network enhances the model's capacity to capture temporal dynamics in the data, processing it in both forward and backward directions. This is particularly advantageous for time series data where past and future data points can influence the current state. The proposed method has been applied to the hourly and daily timeframes of the major cryptocurrencies and its performance has been benchmarked against other methods documented in the literature. The results underscore the potential of the proposed method to outperform existing models, marking a significant progression in the field of cryptocurrency price prediction.

Code pre-trained models (CodePTMs) have recently demonstrated significant success in code intelligence. To interpret these models, some probing methods have been applied. However, these methods fail to consider the inherent characteristics of codes. In this paper, to address the problem, we propose a novel probing method CAT-probing to quantitatively interpret how CodePTMs attend code structure. We first denoise the input code sequences based on the token types pre-defined by the compilers to filter those tokens whose attention scores are too small. After that, we define a new metric CAT-score to measure the commonality between the token-level attention scores generated in CodePTMs and the pair-wise distances between corresponding AST nodes. The higher the CAT-score, the stronger the ability of CodePTMs to capture code structure. We conduct extensive experiments to integrate CAT-probing with representative CodePTMs for different programming languages. Experimental results show the effectiveness of CAT-probing in CodePTM interpretation. Our codes and data are publicly available at https://github.com/nchen909/CodeAttention.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in few-shot classification (FSC) occur when novel classes sampled from testing distributions differ from base classes drawn from training distributions, which considerably degrades the performance of deep learning models deployed in real-world applications. Recent studies suggest that the OOD problems in FSC mainly including: (a) cross-domain few-shot classification (CD-FSC) and (b) spurious-correlation few-shot classification (SC-FSC). Specifically, CD-FSC occurs when a classifier learns transferring knowledge from base classes drawn from seen training distributions but recognizes novel classes sampled from unseen testing distributions. In contrast, SC-FSC arises when a classifier relies on non-causal features (or contexts) that happen to be correlated with the labels (or concepts) in base classes but such relationships no longer hold during the model deployment. Despite CD-FSC has been extensively studied, SC-FSC remains understudied due to lack of the corresponding evaluation benchmarks. To this end, we present Meta Concept Context (MetaCoCo), a benchmark with spurious-correlation shifts collected from real-world scenarios. Moreover, to quantify the extent of spurious-correlation shifts of the presented MetaCoCo, we further propose a metric by using CLIP as a pre-trained vision-language model. Extensive experiments on the proposed benchmark are performed to evaluate the state-of-the-art methods in FSC, cross-domain shifts, and self-supervised learning. The experimental results show that the performance of the existing methods degrades significantly in the presence of spurious-correlation shifts. We open-source all codes of our benchmark and hope that the proposed MetaCoCo can facilitate future research on spurious-correlation shifts problems in FSC. The code is available at: https://github.com/remiMZ/MetaCoCo-ICLR24.

Non-autoregressive (nAR) models for machine translation (MT) manifest superior decoding speed when compared to autoregressive (AR) models, at the expense of impaired fluency of their outputs. We improve the fluency of a nAR model with connectionist temporal classification (CTC) by employing additional features in the scoring model used during beam search decoding. Since the beam search decoding in our model only requires to run the network in a single forward pass, the decoding speed is still notably higher than in standard AR models. We train models for three language pairs: German, Czech, and Romanian from and into English. The results show that our proposed models can be more efficient in terms of decoding speed and still achieve a competitive BLEU score relative to AR models.

Recently, intelligent analysis of lung nodules with the assistant of computer aided detection (CAD) techniques can improve the accuracy rate of lung cancer diagnosis. However, existing CAD systems and pulmonary datasets mainly focus on Computed Tomography (CT) images from one single period, while ignoring the cross spatio-temporal features associated with the progression of nodules contained in imaging data from various captured periods of lung cancer. If the evolution patterns of nodules across various periods in the patients' CT sequences can be explored, it will play a crucial role in guiding the precise screening identification of lung cancer. Therefore, a cross spatio-temporal lung nodule dataset with pathological information for nodule identification and diagnosis is constructed, which contains 328 CT sequences and 362 annotated nodules from 109 patients. This comprehensive database is intended to drive research in the field of CAD towards more practical and robust methods, and also contribute to the further exploration of precision medicine related field. To ensure patient confidentiality, we have removed sensitive information from the dataset.

The gap between speech and text modalities is a major challenge in speech-to-text translation (ST). Different methods have been proposed to reduce this gap, but most of them require architectural changes in ST training. In this work, we propose to mitigate this issue at the pre-training stage, requiring no change in the ST model. First, we show that the connectionist temporal classification (CTC) loss can reduce the modality gap by design. We provide a quantitative comparison with the more common cross-entropy loss, showing that pre-training with CTC consistently achieves better final ST accuracy. Nevertheless, CTC is only a partial solution and thus, in our second contribution, we propose a novel pre-training method combining CTC and optimal transport to further reduce this gap. Our method pre-trains a Siamese-like model composed of two encoders, one for acoustic inputs and the other for textual inputs, such that they produce representations that are close to each other in the Wasserstein space. Extensive experiments on the standard CoVoST-2 and MuST-C datasets show that our pre-training method applied to the vanilla encoder-decoder Transformer achieves state-of-the-art performance under the no-external-data setting, and performs on par with recent strong multi-task learning systems trained with external data. Finally, our method can also be applied on top of these multi-task systems, leading to further improvements for these models. Code and pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/formiel/fairseq.

High-quality data labeling from specific domains is costly and human time-consuming. In this work, we propose a self-supervised domain adaptation method, based upon an iterative pseudo-forced alignment algorithm. The produced alignments are employed to customize an end-to-end Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and iteratively refined. The algorithm is fed with frame-wise character posteriors produced by a seed ASR, trained with out-of-domain data, and optimized throughout a Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) loss. The alignments are computed iteratively upon a corpus of broadcast TV. The process is repeated by reducing the quantity of text to be aligned or expanding the alignment window until finding the best possible audio-text alignment. The starting timestamps, or temporal anchors, are produced uniquely based on the confidence score of the last aligned utterance. This score is computed with the paths of the CTC-alignment matrix. With this methodology, no human-revised text references are required. Alignments from long audio files with low-quality transcriptions, like TV captions, are filtered out by confidence score and ready for further ASR adaptation. The obtained results, on both the Spanish RTVE2022 and CommonVoice databases, underpin the feasibility of using CTC-based systems to perform: highly accurate audio-text alignments, domain adaptation and semi-supervised training of end-to-end ASR.

Non-autoregressive translation (NAT) models are typically trained with the cross-entropy loss, which forces the model outputs to be aligned verbatim with the target sentence and will highly penalize small shifts in word positions. Latent alignment models relax the explicit alignment by marginalizing out all monotonic latent alignments with the CTC loss. However, they cannot handle non-monotonic alignments, which is non-negligible as there is typically global word reordering in machine translation. In this work, we explore non-monotonic latent alignments for NAT. We extend the alignment space to non-monotonic alignments to allow for the global word reordering and further consider all alignments that overlap with the target sentence. We non-monotonically match the alignments to the target sentence and train the latent alignment model to maximize the F1 score of non-monotonic matching. Extensive experiments on major WMT benchmarks show that our method substantially improves the translation performance of CTC-based models. Our best model achieves 30.06 BLEU on WMT14 En-De with only one-iteration decoding, closing the gap between non-autoregressive and autoregressive models.

Most papers caution against using predictive models for disease stratification based on unselected radiomic features, as these features are affected by contouring variability. Instead, they advocate for the use of the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) as a measure of stability for feature selection. However, the direct effect of segmentation variability on the predictive models is rarely studied. This study investigates the impact of segmentation variability on feature stability and predictive performance in radiomics-based prediction of Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) subtype using Magnetic Resonance Imaging. A total of 244 images from the Duke dataset were used, with segmentation variability introduced through modifications of manual segmentations. For each mask, explainable radiomic features were selected using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method and used to train logistic regression models. Feature stability across segmentations was assessed via ICC, Pearson's correlation, and reliability scores quantifying the relationship between feature stability and segmentation variability. Results indicate that segmentation accuracy does not significantly impact predictive performance. While incorporating peritumoral information may reduce feature reproducibility, it does not diminish feature predictive capability. Moreover, feature selection in predictive models is not inherently tied to feature stability with respect to segmentation, suggesting that an overreliance on ICC or reliability scores for feature selection might exclude valuable predictive features.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Accurate classification of computed tomography (CT) images is essential for diagnosis and treatment planning, but existing methods often struggle with the subtle and spatially diverse nature of pathological features. Current approaches typically process images uniformly, limiting their ability to detect localized abnormalities that require focused analysis. We introduce UGPL, an uncertainty-guided progressive learning framework that performs a global-to-local analysis by first identifying regions of diagnostic ambiguity and then conducting detailed examination of these critical areas. Our approach employs evidential deep learning to quantify predictive uncertainty, guiding the extraction of informative patches through a non-maximum suppression mechanism that maintains spatial diversity. This progressive refinement strategy, combined with an adaptive fusion mechanism, enables UGPL to integrate both contextual information and fine-grained details. Experiments across three CT datasets demonstrate that UGPL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving improvements of 3.29%, 2.46%, and 8.08% in accuracy for kidney abnormality, lung cancer, and COVID-19 detection, respectively. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty-guided component provides substantial benefits, with performance dramatically increasing when the full progressive learning pipeline is implemented. Our code is available at: https://github.com/shravan-18/UGPL

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

We propose CX-ToM, short for counterfactual explanations with theory-of mind, a new explainable AI (XAI) framework for explaining decisions made by a deep convolutional neural network (CNN). In contrast to the current methods in XAI that generate explanations as a single shot response, we pose explanation as an iterative communication process, i.e. dialog, between the machine and human user. More concretely, our CX-ToM framework generates sequence of explanations in a dialog by mediating the differences between the minds of machine and human user. To do this, we use Theory of Mind (ToM) which helps us in explicitly modeling human's intention, machine's mind as inferred by the human as well as human's mind as inferred by the machine. Moreover, most state-of-the-art XAI frameworks provide attention (or heat map) based explanations. In our work, we show that these attention based explanations are not sufficient for increasing human trust in the underlying CNN model. In CX-ToM, we instead use counterfactual explanations called fault-lines which we define as follows: given an input image I for which a CNN classification model M predicts class c_pred, a fault-line identifies the minimal semantic-level features (e.g., stripes on zebra, pointed ears of dog), referred to as explainable concepts, that need to be added to or deleted from I in order to alter the classification category of I by M to another specified class c_alt. We argue that, due to the iterative, conceptual and counterfactual nature of CX-ToM explanations, our framework is practical and more natural for both expert and non-expert users to understand the internal workings of complex deep learning models. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments verify our hypotheses, demonstrating that our CX-ToM significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art explainable AI models.

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

How does the internal computation of a machine learning model transform inputs into predictions? In this paper, we introduce a task called component modeling that aims to address this question. The goal of component modeling is to decompose an ML model's prediction in terms of its components -- simple functions (e.g., convolution filters, attention heads) that are the "building blocks" of model computation. We focus on a special case of this task, component attribution, where the goal is to estimate the counterfactual impact of individual components on a given prediction. We then present COAR, a scalable algorithm for estimating component attributions; we demonstrate its effectiveness across models, datasets, and modalities. Finally, we show that component attributions estimated with COAR directly enable model editing across five tasks, namely: fixing model errors, ``forgetting'' specific classes, boosting subpopulation robustness, localizing backdoor attacks, and improving robustness to typographic attacks. We provide code for COAR at https://github.com/MadryLab/modelcomponents .

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) refers to approaches that improve reasoning performance by allocating extra computation during inference, without altering the model's parameters. While existing TTS methods operate in a discrete token space by generating more intermediate steps, recent studies in Coconut and SoftCoT have demonstrated that thinking in the continuous latent space can further enhance the reasoning performance. Such latent thoughts encode informative thinking without the information loss associated with autoregressive token generation, sparking increased interest in continuous-space reasoning. Unlike discrete decoding, where repeated sampling enables exploring diverse reasoning paths, latent representations in continuous space are fixed for a given input, which limits diverse exploration, as all decoded paths originate from the same latent thought. To overcome this limitation, we introduce SoftCoT++ to extend SoftCoT to the Test-Time Scaling paradigm by enabling diverse exploration of thinking paths. Specifically, we perturb latent thoughts via multiple specialized initial tokens and apply contrastive learning to promote diversity among soft thought representations. Experiments across five reasoning benchmarks and two distinct LLM architectures demonstrate that SoftCoT++ significantly boosts SoftCoT and also outperforms SoftCoT with self-consistency scaling. Moreover, it shows strong compatibility with conventional scaling techniques such as self-consistency. Source code is available at https://github.com/xuyige/SoftCoT.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical USD/BDT exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023, sourced from Yahoo Finance, to develop advanced machine learning models for accurate forecasting. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is employed, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 99.449%, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.9858, and a test loss of 0.8523, significantly outperforming traditional methods like ARIMA (RMSE 1.342). Additionally, a Gradient Boosting Classifier (GBC) is applied for directional prediction, with backtesting on a 10,000 initial capital revealing a 40.82% profitable trade rate, though resulting in a net loss of 20,653.25 over 49 trades. The study analyzes historical trends, showing a decline in BDT/USD rates from 0.012 to 0.009, and incorporates normalized daily returns to capture volatility. These findings highlight the potential of deep learning in forex forecasting, offering traders and policymakers robust tools to mitigate risks. Future work could integrate sentiment analysis and real-time economic indicators to further enhance model adaptability in volatile markets.

Prediction of critical temperature (T_c) of a superconductor remains a significant challenge in condensed matter physics. While the BCS theory explains superconductivity in conventional superconductors, there is no framework to predict T_c of unconventional, higher T_{c} superconductors. Quantum Structure Diagrams (QSD) were successful in establishing structure-property relationship for superconductors, quasicrystals, and ferroelectric materials starting from chemical composition. Building on the QSD ideas, we demonstrate that the principal component analysis of superconductivity data uncovers the clustering of various classes of superconductors. We use machine learning analysis and cleaned databases of superconductors to develop predictive models of T_c of a superconductor using its chemical composition. Earlier studies relied on datasets with inconsistencies, leading to suboptimal predictions. To address this, we introduce a data-cleaning workflow to enhance the statistical quality of superconducting databases by eliminating redundancies and resolving inconsistencies. With this improvised database, we apply a supervised machine learning framework and develop a Random Forest model to predict superconductivity and T_c as a function of descriptors motivated from Quantum Structure Diagrams. We demonstrate that this model generalizes effectively in reasonably accurate prediction of T_{c} of compounds outside the database. We further employ our model to systematically screen materials across materials databases as well as various chemically plausible combinations of elements and predict Tl_{5}Ba_{6}Ca_{6}Cu_{9}O_{29} to exhibit superconductivity with a T_{c} sim 105 K. Being based on the descriptors used in QSD's, our model bypasses structural information and predicts T_{c} merely from the chemical composition.

Since COVID strongly affects the respiratory system, lung CT-scans can be used for the analysis of a patients health. We introduce a neural network for the prediction of the severity of lung damage and the detection of a COVID-infection using three-dimensional CT-data. Therefore, we adapt the recent ConvNeXt model to process three-dimensional data. Furthermore, we design and analyze different pretraining methods specifically designed to improve the models ability to handle three-dimensional CT-data. We rank 2nd in the 1st COVID19 Severity Detection Challenge and 3rd in the 2nd COVID19 Detection Challenge.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

Recent work has witnessed a paradigm shift from Seq2Seq to Seq2Edit in the field of text editing, with the aim of addressing the slow autoregressive inference problem posed by the former. Despite promising results, Seq2Edit approaches still face several challenges such as inflexibility in generation and difficulty in generalizing to other languages. In this work, we propose a novel non-autoregressive text editing method to circumvent the above issues, by modeling the edit process with latent CTC alignments. We make a crucial extension to CTC by introducing the copy operation into the edit space, thus enabling more efficient management of textual overlap in editing. We conduct extensive experiments on GEC and sentence fusion tasks, showing that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing Seq2Edit models and achieves similar or even better results than Seq2Seq with over 4times speedup. Moreover, it demonstrates good generalizability on German and Russian. In-depth analyses reveal the strengths of our method in terms of the robustness under various scenarios and generating fluent and flexible outputs.

As lung cancer evolves, the presence of enlarged and potentially malignant lymph nodes must be assessed to properly estimate disease progression and select the best treatment strategy. Following the clinical guidelines, estimation of short-axis diameter and mediastinum station are paramount for correct diagnosis. A method for accurate and automatic segmentation is hence decisive for quantitatively describing lymph nodes. In this study, the use of 3D convolutional neural networks, either through slab-wise schemes or the leveraging of downsampled entire volumes, is investigated. Furthermore, the potential impact from simple ensemble strategies is considered. As lymph nodes have similar attenuation values to nearby anatomical structures, we suggest using the knowledge of other organs as prior information to guide the segmentation task. To assess the segmentation and instance detection performances, a 5-fold cross-validation strategy was followed over a dataset of 120 contrast-enhanced CT volumes. For the 1178 lymph nodes with a short-axis diameter geq10 mm, our best performing approach reached a patient-wise recall of 92%, a false positive per patient ratio of 5, and a segmentation overlap of 80.5%. The method performs similarly well across all stations. Fusing a slab-wise and a full volume approach within an ensemble scheme generated the best performances. The anatomical priors guiding strategy is promising, yet a larger set than four organs appears needed to generate an optimal benefit. A larger dataset is also mandatory, given the wide range of expressions a lymph node can exhibit (i.e., shape, location, and attenuation), and contrast uptake variations.

In this work, we present a hybrid CTC/Attention model based on a ResNet-18 and Convolution-augmented transformer (Conformer), that can be trained in an end-to-end manner. In particular, the audio and visual encoders learn to extract features directly from raw pixels and audio waveforms, respectively, which are then fed to conformers and then fusion takes place via a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). The model learns to recognise characters using a combination of CTC and an attention mechanism. We show that end-to-end training, instead of using pre-computed visual features which is common in the literature, the use of a conformer, instead of a recurrent network, and the use of a transformer-based language model, significantly improve the performance of our model. We present results on the largest publicly available datasets for sentence-level speech recognition, Lip Reading Sentences 2 (LRS2) and Lip Reading Sentences 3 (LRS3), respectively. The results show that our proposed models raise the state-of-the-art performance by a large margin in audio-only, visual-only, and audio-visual experiments.

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

Modern techniques like contrastive learning have been effectively used in many areas, including computer vision, natural language processing, and graph-structured data. Creating positive examples that assist the model in learning robust and discriminative representations is a crucial stage in contrastive learning approaches. Usually, preset human intuition directs the selection of relevant data augmentations. Due to patterns that are easily recognized by humans, this rule of thumb works well in the vision and language domains. However, it is impractical to visually inspect the temporal structures in time series. The diversity of time series augmentations at both the dataset and instance levels makes it difficult to choose meaningful augmentations on the fly. In this study, we address this gap by analyzing time series data augmentation using information theory and summarizing the most commonly adopted augmentations in a unified format. We then propose a contrastive learning framework with parametric augmentation, AutoTCL, which can be adaptively employed to support time series representation learning. The proposed approach is encoder-agnostic, allowing it to be seamlessly integrated with different backbone encoders. Experiments on univariate forecasting tasks demonstrate the highly competitive results of our method, with an average 6.5\% reduction in MSE and 4.7\% in MAE over the leading baselines. In classification tasks, AutoTCL achieves a 1.2% increase in average accuracy.

The SYNTAX score has become a widely used measure of coronary disease severity , crucial in selecting the optimal mode of revascularization. This paper introduces a new medical regression and classification problem - automatically estimating SYNTAX score from coronary angiography. Our study presents a comprehensive dataset of 1,844 patients, featuring a balanced distribution of individuals with zero and non-zero scores. This dataset includes a first-of-its-kind, complete coronary angiography samples captured through a multi-view X-ray video, allowing one to observe coronary arteries from multiple perspectives. Furthermore, we present a novel, fully automatic end-to-end method for estimating the SYNTAX. For such a difficult task, we have achieved a solid coefficient of determination R2 of 0.51 in score predictions.

We extend our previous work on Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) for multi-label text classification and present a novel approach for addressing the computational inefficiency of the Label Powerset (LP) ICP, arrising when dealing with a high number of unique labels. We present experimental results using the original and the proposed efficient LP-ICP on two English and one Czech language data-sets. Specifically, we apply the LP-ICP on three deep Artificial Neural Network (ANN) classifiers of two types: one based on contextualised (bert) and two on non-contextualised (word2vec) word-embeddings. In the LP-ICP setting we assign nonconformity scores to label-sets from which the corresponding p-values and prediction-sets are determined. Our approach deals with the increased computational burden of LP by eliminating from consideration a significant number of label-sets that will surely have p-values below the specified significance level. This reduces dramatically the computational complexity of the approach while fully respecting the standard CP guarantees. Our experimental results show that the contextualised-based classifier surpasses the non-contextualised-based ones and obtains state-of-the-art performance for all data-sets examined. The good performance of the underlying classifiers is carried on to their ICP counterparts without any significant accuracy loss, but with the added benefits of ICP, i.e. the confidence information encapsulated in the prediction sets. We experimentally demonstrate that the resulting prediction sets can be tight enough to be practically useful even though the set of all possible label-sets contains more than 1e+16 combinations. Additionally, the empirical error rates of the obtained prediction-sets confirm that our outputs are well-calibrated.

Multilingual speech processing with self-supervised or supervised pre-trained Speech Foundation Models (SFM) has achieved strong performance on tasks like Language Identification (LID) and Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR). However, these models struggle with limited resources during fine-tuning. This paper enhances multilingual LID and ASR on ML-SUPERB 2.0 by exploring multiple strategies for adapting SFMs, including frozen upstream training, partial fine-tuning, and low-rank adaptation. Furthermore, we employ data augmentation to mitigate performance gaps in few-shot settings and introduce LID Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) loss for regularization. Our approach achieves a 14% relative improvement in LID accuracy and a 30% relative reduction in ASR CER over the baseline on ML-SUPERB 2.0, securing second place in the Interspeech 2025 ML-SUPERB 2.0 Challenge.

Cross Attention is a popular method for retrieving information from a set of context tokens for making predictions. At inference time, for each prediction, Cross Attention scans the full set of O(N) tokens. In practice, however, often only a small subset of tokens are required for good performance. Methods such as Perceiver IO are cheap at inference as they distill the information to a smaller-sized set of latent tokens L < N on which cross attention is then applied, resulting in only O(L) complexity. However, in practice, as the number of input tokens and the amount of information to distill increases, the number of latent tokens needed also increases significantly. In this work, we propose Tree Cross Attention (TCA) - a module based on Cross Attention that only retrieves information from a logarithmic O(log(N)) number of tokens for performing inference. TCA organizes the data in a tree structure and performs a tree search at inference time to retrieve the relevant tokens for prediction. Leveraging TCA, we introduce ReTreever, a flexible architecture for token-efficient inference. We show empirically that Tree Cross Attention (TCA) performs comparable to Cross Attention across various classification and uncertainty regression tasks while being significantly more token-efficient. Furthermore, we compare ReTreever against Perceiver IO, showing significant gains while using the same number of tokens for inference.

Following recent advancements in computer-aided detection and diagnosis systems for colonoscopy, the automated reporting of colonoscopy procedures is set to further revolutionize clinical practice. A crucial yet underexplored aspect in the development of these systems is the creation of computer vision models capable of autonomously segmenting full-procedure colonoscopy videos into anatomical sections and procedural phases. In this work, we aim to create the first open-access dataset for this task and propose a state-of-the-art approach, benchmarked against competitive models. We annotated the publicly available REAL-Colon dataset, consisting of 2.7 million frames from 60 complete colonoscopy videos, with frame-level labels for anatomical locations and colonoscopy phases across nine categories. We then present ColonTCN, a learning-based architecture that employs custom temporal convolutional blocks designed to efficiently capture long temporal dependencies for the temporal segmentation of colonoscopy videos. We also propose a dual k-fold cross-validation evaluation protocol for this benchmark, which includes model assessment on unseen, multi-center data.ColonTCN achieves state-of-the-art performance in classification accuracy while maintaining a low parameter count when evaluated using the two proposed k-fold cross-validation settings, outperforming competitive models. We report ablation studies to provide insights into the challenges of this task and highlight the benefits of the custom temporal convolutional blocks, which enhance learning and improve model efficiency. We believe that the proposed open-access benchmark and the ColonTCN approach represent a significant advancement in the temporal segmentation of colonoscopy procedures, fostering further open-access research to address this clinical need.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

The predictions of small transformers, trained to calculate the greatest common divisor (GCD) of two positive integers, can be fully characterized by looking at model inputs and outputs. As training proceeds, the model learns a list mathcal D of integers, products of divisors of the base used to represent integers and small primes, and predicts the largest element of mathcal D that divides both inputs. Training distributions impact performance. Models trained from uniform operands only learn a handful of GCD (up to 38 GCD leq100). Log-uniform operands boost performance to 73 GCD leq 100, and a log-uniform distribution of outcomes (i.e. GCD) to 91. However, training from uniform (balanced) GCD breaks explainability.

We introduce CCI4.0, a large-scale bilingual pre-training dataset engineered for superior data quality and diverse human-like reasoning trajectory. CCI4.0 occupies roughly 35 TB of disk space and comprises two sub-datasets: CCI4.0-M2-Base and CCI4.0-M2-CoT. CCI4.0-M2-Base combines a 5.2 TB carefully curated Chinese web corpus, a 22.5 TB English subset from Nemotron-CC, and diverse sources from math, wiki, arxiv, and code. Although these data are mostly sourced from well-processed datasets, the quality standards of various domains are dynamic and require extensive expert experience and labor to process. So, we propose a novel pipeline justifying data quality mainly based on models through two-stage deduplication, multiclassifier quality scoring, and domain-aware fluency filtering. We extract 4.5 billion pieces of CoT(Chain-of-Thought) templates, named CCI4.0-M2-CoT. Differing from the distillation of CoT from larger models, our proposed staged CoT extraction exemplifies diverse reasoning patterns and significantly decreases the possibility of hallucination. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that LLMs pre-trained in CCI4.0 benefit from cleaner, more reliable training signals, yielding consistent improvements in downstream tasks, especially in math and code reflection tasks. Our results underscore the critical role of rigorous data curation and human thinking templates in advancing LLM performance, shedding some light on automatically processing pretraining corpora.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

Root canal (RC) treatment is a highly delicate and technically complex procedure in clinical practice, heavily influenced by the clinicians' experience and subjective judgment. Deep learning has made significant advancements in the field of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) because it can provide more objective and accurate diagnostic results. However, its application in RC treatment is still relatively rare, mainly due to the lack of public datasets in this field. To address this issue, in this paper, we established a First Molar Root Canal segmentation dataset called FMRC-2025. Additionally, to alleviate the workload of manual annotation for dentists and fully leverage the unlabeled data, we designed a Cross-Frequency Collaborative training semi-supervised learning (SSL) Network called CFC-Net. It consists of two components: (1) Cross-Frequency Collaborative Mean Teacher (CFC-MT), which introduces two specialized students (SS) and one comprehensive teacher (CT) for collaborative multi-frequency training. The CT and SS are trained on different frequency components while fully integrating multi-frequency knowledge through cross and full frequency consistency supervisions. (2) Uncertainty-guided Cross-Frequency Mix (UCF-Mix) mechanism enables the network to generate high-confidence pseudo-labels while learning to integrate multi-frequency information and maintaining the structural integrity of the targets. Extensive experiments on FMRC-2025 and three public dental datasets demonstrate that CFC-MT is effective for RC segmentation and can also exhibit strong generalizability on other dental segmentation tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art SSL medical image segmentation methods. Codes and dataset will be released.

Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT^2), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.

Medical coding is the task of assigning medical codes to clinical free-text documentation. Healthcare professionals manually assign such codes to track patient diagnoses and treatments. Automated medical coding can considerably alleviate this administrative burden. In this paper, we reproduce, compare, and analyze state-of-the-art automated medical coding machine learning models. We show that several models underperform due to weak configurations, poorly sampled train-test splits, and insufficient evaluation. In previous work, the macro F1 score has been calculated sub-optimally, and our correction doubles it. We contribute a revised model comparison using stratified sampling and identical experimental setups, including hyperparameters and decision boundary tuning. We analyze prediction errors to validate and falsify assumptions of previous works. The analysis confirms that all models struggle with rare codes, while long documents only have a negligible impact. Finally, we present the first comprehensive results on the newly released MIMIC-IV dataset using the reproduced models. We release our code, model parameters, and new MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV training and evaluation pipelines to accommodate fair future comparisons.

Time series classification (TSC) on multivariate time series is a critical problem. We propose a novel multi-view approach integrating frequency-domain and time-domain features to provide complementary contexts for TSC. Our method fuses continuous wavelet transform spectral features with temporal convolutional or multilayer perceptron features. We leverage the Mamba state space model for efficient and scalable sequence modeling. We also introduce a novel tango scanning scheme to better model sequence relationships. Experiments on 10 standard benchmark datasets demonstrate our approach achieves an average 6.45% accuracy improvement over state-of-the-art TSC models.

Computed Tomography (CT) is one of the most popular modalities for medical imaging. By far, CT images have contributed to the largest publicly available datasets for volumetric medical segmentation tasks, covering full-body anatomical structures. Large amounts of full-body CT images provide the opportunity to pre-train powerful models, e.g., STU-Net pre-trained in a supervised fashion, to segment numerous anatomical structures. However, it remains unclear in which conditions these pre-trained models can be transferred to various downstream medical segmentation tasks, particularly segmenting the other modalities and diverse targets. To address this problem, a large-scale benchmark for comprehensive evaluation is crucial for finding these conditions. Thus, we collected 87 public datasets varying in modality, target, and sample size to evaluate the transfer ability of full-body CT pre-trained models. We then employed a representative model, STU-Net with multiple model scales, to conduct transfer learning across modalities and targets. Our experimental results show that (1) there may be a bottleneck effect concerning the dataset size in fine-tuning, with more improvement on both small- and large-scale datasets than medium-size ones. (2) Models pre-trained on full-body CT demonstrate effective modality transfer, adapting well to other modalities such as MRI. (3) Pre-training on the full-body CT not only supports strong performance in structure detection but also shows efficacy in lesion detection, showcasing adaptability across target tasks. We hope that this large-scale open evaluation of transfer learning can direct future research in volumetric medical image segmentation.

Decisions about managing patients on the heart transplant waitlist are currently made by committees of doctors who consider multiple factors, but the process remains largely ad-hoc. With the growing volume of longitudinal patient, donor, and organ data collected by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) since 2018, there is increasing interest in analytical approaches to support clinical decision-making at the time of organ availability. In this study, we benchmark machine learning models that leverage longitudinal waitlist history data for time-dependent, time-to-event modeling of waitlist mortality. We train on 23,807 patient records with 77 variables and evaluate both survival prediction and discrimination at a 1-year horizon. Our best model achieves a C-Index of 0.94 and AUROC of 0.89, significantly outperforming previous models. Key predictors align with known risk factors while also revealing novel associations. Our findings can support urgency assessment and policy refinement in heart transplant decision making.

This study examines the integration of Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) with Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). While CPC learns the predictive structure of data to generate meaningful representations, SNN mimics the computational processes of biological neural systems over time. In this study, the goal is to develop a predictive coding model with greater biological plausibility by processing inputs and outputs in a spike-based system. The proposed model was tested on the MNIST dataset and achieved a high classification rate in distinguishing positive sequential samples from non-sequential negative samples. The study demonstrates that CPC can be effectively combined with SNN, showing that an SNN trained for classification tasks can also function as an encoding mechanism. Project codes and detailed results can be accessed on our GitHub page: https://github.com/vnd-ogrenme/ongorusel-kodlama/tree/main/CPC_SNN

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

Explainability methods for NLP systems encounter a version of the fundamental problem of causal inference: for a given ground-truth input text, we never truly observe the counterfactual texts necessary for isolating the causal effects of model representations on outputs. In response, many explainability methods make no use of counterfactual texts, assuming they will be unavailable. In this paper, we show that robust causal explainability methods can be created using approximate counterfactuals, which can be written by humans to approximate a specific counterfactual or simply sampled using metadata-guided heuristics. The core of our proposal is the Causal Proxy Model (CPM). A CPM explains a black-box model N because it is trained to have the same actual input/output behavior as N while creating neural representations that can be intervened upon to simulate the counterfactual input/output behavior of N. Furthermore, we show that the best CPM for N performs comparably to N in making factual predictions, which means that the CPM can simply replace N, leading to more explainable deployed models. Our code is available at https://github.com/frankaging/Causal-Proxy-Model.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Accurate spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting is crucial in aiding traffic managers in implementing control measures and assisting drivers in selecting optimal travel routes. Traditional deep-learning based methods for traffic flow forecasting typically rely on historical data to train their models, which are then used to make predictions on future data. However, the performance of the trained model usually degrades due to the temporal drift between the historical and future data. To make the model trained on historical data better adapt to future data in a fully online manner, this paper conducts the first study of the online test-time adaptation techniques for spatial-temporal traffic flow forecasting problems. To this end, we propose an Adaptive Double Correction by Series Decomposition (ADCSD) method, which first decomposes the output of the trained model into seasonal and trend-cyclical parts and then corrects them by two separate modules during the testing phase using the latest observed data entry by entry. In the proposed ADCSD method, instead of fine-tuning the whole trained model during the testing phase, a lite network is attached after the trained model, and only the lite network is fine-tuned in the testing process each time a data entry is observed. Moreover, to satisfy that different time series variables may have different levels of temporal drift, two adaptive vectors are adopted to provide different weights for different time series variables. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic flow forecasting datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed ADCSD method. The code is available at https://github.com/Pengxin-Guo/ADCSD.

The ionosphere electromagnetic activity is a major factor of the quality of satellite telecommunications, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and other vital space applications. Being able to forecast globally the Total Electron Content (TEC) would enable a better anticipation of potential performance degradations. A few studies have proposed models able to predict the TEC locally, but not worldwide for most of them. Thanks to a large record of past TEC maps publicly available, we propose a method based on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to forecast a sequence of global TEC maps consecutive to an input sequence of TEC maps, without introducing any prior knowledge other than Earth rotation periodicity. By combining several state-of-the-art architectures, the proposed approach is competitive with previous works on TEC forecasting while predicting the TEC globally.

We present a deep learning segmentation model that can automatically and robustly segment all major anatomical structures in body CT images. In this retrospective study, 1204 CT examinations (from the years 2012, 2016, and 2020) were used to segment 104 anatomical structures (27 organs, 59 bones, 10 muscles, 8 vessels) relevant for use cases such as organ volumetry, disease characterization, and surgical or radiotherapy planning. The CT images were randomly sampled from routine clinical studies and thus represent a real-world dataset (different ages, pathologies, scanners, body parts, sequences, and sites). The authors trained an nnU-Net segmentation algorithm on this dataset and calculated Dice similarity coefficients (Dice) to evaluate the model's performance. The trained algorithm was applied to a second dataset of 4004 whole-body CT examinations to investigate age dependent volume and attenuation changes. The proposed model showed a high Dice score (0.943) on the test set, which included a wide range of clinical data with major pathologies. The model significantly outperformed another publicly available segmentation model on a separate dataset (Dice score, 0.932 versus 0.871, respectively). The aging study demonstrated significant correlations between age and volume and mean attenuation for a variety of organ groups (e.g., age and aortic volume; age and mean attenuation of the autochthonous dorsal musculature). The developed model enables robust and accurate segmentation of 104 anatomical structures. The annotated dataset (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6802613) and toolkit (https://www.github.com/wasserth/TotalSegmentator) are publicly available.

A major challenge in computational research in 3D medical imaging is the lack of comprehensive datasets. Addressing this issue, our study introduces CT-RATE, the first 3D medical imaging dataset that pairs images with textual reports. CT-RATE consists of 25,692 non-contrast chest CT volumes, expanded to 50,188 through various reconstructions, from 21,304 unique patients, along with corresponding radiology text reports. Leveraging CT-RATE, we developed CT-CLIP, a CT-focused contrastive language-image pre-training framework. As a versatile, self-supervised model, CT-CLIP is designed for broad application and does not require task-specific training. Remarkably, CT-CLIP outperforms state-of-the-art, fully supervised methods in multi-abnormality detection across all key metrics, thus eliminating the need for manual annotation. We also demonstrate its utility in case retrieval, whether using imagery or textual queries, thereby advancing knowledge dissemination. The open-source release of CT-RATE and CT-CLIP marks a significant advancement in medical AI, enhancing 3D imaging analysis and fostering innovation in healthcare.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

Sequence-to-sequence attention-based models on subword units allow simple open-vocabulary end-to-end speech recognition. In this work, we show that such models can achieve competitive results on the Switchboard 300h and LibriSpeech 1000h tasks. In particular, we report the state-of-the-art word error rates (WER) of 3.54% on the dev-clean and 3.82% on the test-clean evaluation subsets of LibriSpeech. We introduce a new pretraining scheme by starting with a high time reduction factor and lowering it during training, which is crucial both for convergence and final performance. In some experiments, we also use an auxiliary CTC loss function to help the convergence. In addition, we train long short-term memory (LSTM) language models on subword units. By shallow fusion, we report up to 27% relative improvements in WER over the attention baseline without a language model.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) seeks to adapt source pre-trained models to continually changing, unseen target domains. While existing CTTA methods assume structured domain changes with uniform durations, real-world environments often exhibit dynamic patterns where domains recur with varying frequencies and durations. Current approaches, which adapt the same parameters across different domains, struggle in such dynamic conditions-they face convergence issues with brief domain exposures, risk forgetting previously learned knowledge, or misapplying it to irrelevant domains. To remedy this, we propose DPCore, a method designed for robust performance across diverse domain change patterns while ensuring computational efficiency. DPCore integrates three key components: Visual Prompt Adaptation for efficient domain alignment, a Prompt Coreset for knowledge preservation, and a Dynamic Update mechanism that intelligently adjusts existing prompts for similar domains while creating new ones for substantially different domains. Extensive experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that DPCore consistently outperforms various CTTA methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in both structured and dynamic settings while reducing trainable parameters by 99% and computation time by 64% compared to previous approaches.

Learning to represent free text is a core task in many clinical machine learning (ML) applications, as clinical text contains observations and plans not otherwise available for inference. State-of-the-art methods use large language models developed with immense computational resources and training data; however, applying these models is challenging because of the highly varying syntax and vocabulary in clinical free text. Structured information such as International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes often succinctly abstracts the most important facts of a clinical encounter and yields good performance, but is often not as available as clinical text in real-world scenarios. We propose a multi-view learning framework that jointly learns from codes and text to combine the availability and forward-looking nature of text and better performance of ICD codes. The learned text embeddings can be used as inputs to predictive algorithms independent of the ICD codes during inference. Our approach uses a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to process ICD codes, and Bi-LSTM to process text. We apply Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis (DCCA) to enforce the two views to learn a similar representation of each patient. In experiments using planned surgical procedure text, our model outperforms BERT models fine-tuned to clinical data, and in experiments using diverse text in MIMIC-III, our model is competitive to a fine-tuned BERT at a tiny fraction of its computational effort.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Understanding radiologists' eye movement during Computed Tomography (CT) reading is crucial for developing effective interpretable computer-aided diagnosis systems. However, CT research in this area has been limited by the lack of publicly available eye-tracking datasets and the three-dimensional complexity of CT volumes. To address these challenges, we present the first publicly available eye gaze dataset on CT, called CT-ScanGaze. Then, we introduce CT-Searcher, a novel 3D scanpath predictor designed specifically to process CT volumes and generate radiologist-like 3D fixation sequences, overcoming the limitations of current scanpath predictors that only handle 2D inputs. Since deep learning models benefit from a pretraining step, we develop a pipeline that converts existing 2D gaze datasets into 3D gaze data to pretrain CT-Searcher. Through both qualitative and quantitative evaluations on CT-ScanGaze, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach and provide a comprehensive assessment framework for 3D scanpath prediction in medical imaging.

Models that can predict the occurrence of events ahead of time with low false-alarm rates are critical to the acceptance of decision support systems in the medical community. This challenging task is typically treated as a simple binary classification, ignoring temporal dependencies between samples, whereas we propose to exploit this structure. We first introduce a common theoretical framework unifying dynamic survival analysis and early event prediction. Following an analysis of objectives from both fields, we propose Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), a simpler, yet best-performing method that preserves prediction monotonicity over time. By focusing the objective on areas with a stronger predictive signal, TLS improves performance over all baselines on two large-scale benchmark tasks. Gains are particularly notable along clinically relevant measures, such as event recall at low false-alarm rates. TLS reduces the number of missed events by up to a factor of two over previously used approaches in early event prediction.

This paper presents TS2Vec, a universal framework for learning representations of time series in an arbitrary semantic level. Unlike existing methods, TS2Vec performs contrastive learning in a hierarchical way over augmented context views, which enables a robust contextual representation for each timestamp. Furthermore, to obtain the representation of an arbitrary sub-sequence in the time series, we can apply a simple aggregation over the representations of corresponding timestamps. We conduct extensive experiments on time series classification tasks to evaluate the quality of time series representations. As a result, TS2Vec achieves significant improvement over existing SOTAs of unsupervised time series representation on 125 UCR datasets and 29 UEA datasets. The learned timestamp-level representations also achieve superior results in time series forecasting and anomaly detection tasks. A linear regression trained on top of the learned representations outperforms previous SOTAs of time series forecasting. Furthermore, we present a simple way to apply the learned representations for unsupervised anomaly detection, which establishes SOTA results in the literature. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/yuezhihan/ts2vec.

As the rapid progression of practical applications based on Large Language Models continues, the importance of extrapolating performance has grown exponentially in the research domain. In our study, we identified an anomalous behavior in Transformer models that had been previously overlooked, leading to a chaos around closest tokens which carried the most important information. We've coined this discovery the "headache of Transformers". To address this at its core, we introduced a novel self-attention structure named Collinear Constrained Attention (CoCA). This structure can be seamlessly integrated with existing extrapolation, interpolation methods, and other optimization strategies designed for traditional Transformer models. We have achieved excellent extrapolating performance even for 16 times to 24 times of sequence lengths during inference without any fine-tuning on our model. We have also enhanced CoCA's computational and spatial efficiency to ensure its practicality. We plan to open-source CoCA shortly. In the meantime, we've made our code available in the appendix for reappearing experiments.

We present an end-to-end deep learning segmentation method by combining a 3D UNet architecture with a graph neural network (GNN) model. In this approach, the convolutional layers at the deepest level of the UNet are replaced by a GNN-based module with a series of graph convolutions. The dense feature maps at this level are transformed into a graph input to the GNN module. The incorporation of graph convolutions in the UNet provides nodes in the graph with information that is based on node connectivity, in addition to the local features learnt through the downsampled paths. This information can help improve segmentation decisions. By stacking several graph convolution layers, the nodes can access higher order neighbourhood information without substantial increase in computational expense. We propose two types of node connectivity in the graph adjacency: i) one predefined and based on a regular node neighbourhood, and ii) one dynamically computed during training and using the nearest neighbour nodes in the feature space. We have applied this method to the task of segmenting the airway tree from chest CT scans. Experiments have been performed on 32 CTs from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial dataset. We evaluate the performance of the UNet-GNN models with two types of graph adjacency and compare it with the baseline UNet.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Through considerable effort and intuition, several recent works have reverse-engineered nontrivial behaviors of transformer models. This paper systematizes the mechanistic interpretability process they followed. First, researchers choose a metric and dataset that elicit the desired model behavior. Then, they apply activation patching to find which abstract neural network units are involved in the behavior. By varying the dataset, metric, and units under investigation, researchers can understand the functionality of each component. We automate one of the process' steps: to identify the circuit that implements the specified behavior in the model's computational graph. We propose several algorithms and reproduce previous interpretability results to validate them. For example, the ACDC algorithm rediscovered 5/5 of the component types in a circuit in GPT-2 Small that computes the Greater-Than operation. ACDC selected 68 of the 32,000 edges in GPT-2 Small, all of which were manually found by previous work. Our code is available at https://github.com/ArthurConmy/Automatic-Circuit-Discovery.